Category: Bonds

Trading the next move in treasuries

The choppy rise from the turn of the year appears to have been corrective, in this case meaning that it should be treated as a retracement.

US 30 Year Bond futures 2017-05-28

In the bigger picture, we have been expecting a net bounce in bonds since the end of last year into late spring or early summer to which the market has obliged with a choppy bounce thus far. Now we are at a point where either bonds come back under pressure or extend their bounce into […]

US 30yr bond futures daily 2017-04-17

I have the same reservations in here in bonds that I have in gold. While a little higher would be ideal, it is smart to begin taking action if one has been nursing long positions to lock in profits.

US 30 Year Bond futures 2017-02-26

I had thought bonds might be an easy set of charts to start some weekend posting with but as I looked over the charts and sat back in my chair for some time, I have decided that it will be best to fall back to a previous way of analyzing the drop in bonds from […]

US 30 year bond futures 2017-01-21

The bond decline is certainly stretched and the short trade is no doubt crowded, none the less, expecting a new bond low before a choppy sideways to slightly up formation for a few months.

Performance matters: Review and forecast for treasury bonds and TLT

The big-picture pattern in treasury bonds has been working well for several years and has allowed us to predict some major inflections. There are however signs that treasuries and the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) may be ready to move into an entirely new phase. Here we take a quick review of our performance with TLT in 2016 before considering where treasuries should go next.

US 30 Year Bond futures 2017-01-04

Bonds have followed the script for lower but we need to start worrying about a bounce. Prefer to see yet another lower before a bigger bounce as it would look better to my eye with more than just a poke under the monthly and weekly trend lines. Here are the monthly line close and the […]