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 May 5, 2013
Apple is bouncing from support that we have alerted our subscribers to for many weeks. Potential initial targets for the bounce are listed on the chart (460, 508, and 545) but corrections are notoriously difficult to forecast. We suspect that a touch of the lower main channel will be resist but where that is in price is contingent on the speed of the bounce. We can say that the bounce should have a choppy feel compared to the recent decline.
apple monthly EW count May 3, 2013
Last December, we presented the bearish scenario we were forecasting for copper. A few months later, when prices seemed on the verge of breaking downward out of their consolidation range, we posted an update confirming that the market was behaving as expected, and offering some preliminary price targets. We mention the previous articles here, because we believe they are helpful in showing the reader how a trade develops, as well as the distinction between the time when a potential trade is first identified and the time when an entry becomes more favorable. Now, we attempt to identify where the trade . . . → Read More April 29, 2013
The short-term bearish path that we forecast on March 1 as the most likely scenario for gold appears to be playing out. However, that does not mean we think the decline will extend a great deal farther. In fact, the majority of the decline is probably already over. There might still be a trade to the down side, but that trade probably will be heading into a long-term low. Even so, the chance to begin an enduring bounce and rally is likely weeks or months away. Our analysis suggests that gold needs, at a minimum, another lower low before the . . . → Read More April 20, 2013The Bradley timing model has not had much influence on the stock market to this point as you can see in the chart below. The black heavy line is the Dow up to April 19th 2013 plotted with the Bradley siderograph as a blue dotted line. The most important things to pay attention to when interpreting the Bradley line are the inflection points, which are marked, and not as much the direction or magnitude of the line. This Bradley siderograph was calculated by Wave59.
Bradley Siderograph for 2013 . . . → Read More April 17, 2013
In the second part of a series this month, we examine how major stock indices globally are behaving during a time when U.S. indices are showing signs of exhaustion. In the previous post we identified resistance areas and a possible turning point in the Global Dow Index (INDEXJS:GDOW). Now we turn to regional indexes, beginning with the Euro Stoxx 50 Index (INDEXSTOXX:SX5E). The Euro Stoxx 50 Index includes 50 blue-chip stocks from 12 Eurozone countries. It serves as the underlying for a variety of futures and options contracts, as well as exchange traded funds such as the SPDR Euro Stoxx . . . → Read More April 10, 2013
Elsewhere, we have noted that the major United States stock indices variously show signs of topping and exhaustion. Are there regional stock markets outside the U.S. that are likely to hold up better? This month, we present a series of articles examining some of the most-watched equity indices globally, and we apply the combination of Elliott Wave and other technical analysis methods that readers here are familiar with. As context for the later parts of the series, we begin by focusing on the Global Dow Index (GDOW). GDOW consists of 150 blue-chip stocks that are selected by the Wall Street . . . → Read More March 14, 2013
In late January, we mentioned that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) appeared to be finishing the first portion of its downward correction from the November 2012 high, and we showed why price should try to find support in the region between 405 and 445. Last week, Apple found support just above the ideal 415 level, and it is possible that the first downward slide is now finished. From here, we expect several months of corrective price action, which should take the stock in a net upward direction. The nature of the corrective pattern throughout the rest of the year may provide clues about . . . → Read More March 7, 2013
In December, we presented a bearish scenario for copper based on classic Elliot wave analysis. Also, because copper is a bellwether for economic activity generally, we suggested that lower prices for copper might forecast a slowing of the global economy and a decline in stock markets. That outcome would be consistent with our view that most western stock indices appear to be completing top formations. Now, three months after our initial article, copper could be on the verge of confirming (or invalidating) our suggestion that it has been tracing a bearish triangle formation since mid-2011. Below, we describe the signs . . . → Read More March 1, 2013
In late January, we mentioned that we were watching gold to see whether price could break through overhead resistance represented by a channel line and also the specific Fibonacci-derived level of 1730.50. Breaking through would have favored a near-term bullish view. However, since that time, price has fallen away from the channel line and is on the verge of making a fresh low on a weekly timeframe. This makes one of the near-term bullish counts less likely, although it cannot yet be ruled out. Of the other two prominent counts, one is near-term bullish, and the other would call for . . . → Read More January 25, 2013
Our subscribers know we have been watching Apple closely in recent weeks. In the wake of AAPL’s strong reaction to Wednesday’s earnings report, here are some signals and areas to watch as support and, if there is a bounce, as overhead resistance. Our working Elliott wave count has had AAPL tracing out a 4th wave, or perhaps the first part of a 4th wave. However, price has recently poked below the channel boundary on a monthly timeframe, as shown in the first chart, and it has moved below the initial support range of 463-473 that we had identified. Probing beyond . . . → Read More |
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