Category: Market Analysis

The Day Ahead 2016-05-25

Yesterday the S&P 500 (SPX) stayed on plan by trending to just short of 2081. Today is a trickier and has better prospects to have trade in both directions, up early and at least a modest retrace later

The Day Ahead 2016-05-23

S&P 500 (SPX) may drift a few points lower early but expect it to firm up by the end of the day.

Treasury 30 year yield (TYX) 2016-05-22

There has been quite a bit of talk from Fed members suggesting that rate hikes are possible in the June and July FOMC meetings. A move to rate normalization is what the cycle suggest into middle of next year.

The Day Ahead 2016-05-20

Today probably has a mild upward bias in the stock indices. They had every opportunity to break lower on the talk of June being live meeting but failed.

The Day Ahead 2016-05-19

The equity markets didn’t like tone of the FOMC minutes which led to selling. Think it best to maintain a bearish bias with the goal of pushing under May 6th low. The problem is that the market will be choppy every time it approaches these lows until it breaks under.

The Day Ahead 2016-05-18

The main event today will be the FOMC minutes at 14:00 EDT. If the minutes sound hawkish, breaking under the May 6th is possible.

The Day Ahead 2016-05-17

The equity market should retrace at a minimum today, more is possible. Continue to be skeptical of the crude advance. Dollar continues to behave well.

The Day Ahead 2016-05-13

The major US indices are under the daily moving averages and are biding time before pushing away. Crude is slipping lower and still think it is close to embarking on a serious move lower. Dollar index is pushing past resist that should cause some short covering.