In addition to the posts shown below, most Daily Update posts include charts and forecasts for the U.S. Dollar Index and Euro futures.
Two ways a decline might play out
The main hypothesis is that the DX rise up from 2008 is not yet complete and can accommodate at least one more high over that of the 2017 high. Why do I push back on the idea of a DX high being in and the first impulse down complete or nearly so? Two reasons. One, the move up from the May 2016 low does not look like a well formed impulse but more like a three which is more consistent with a (b) wave high. Two, both monthly and weekly cycles suggest a pretty significant low and a into 2019-2020. I'll even add a third, that the correction from 2012 to 2014 lasted 22 months, and the correction from the 2015 high marked [iii], to the low last months was 35 months, about as close as you can get to 1.618 expansion in time as you can get thus having price and time pointing to a significant low.
The British Pound ETF (FXB) is assumed to be forming a wave [iv] like most of the major USD crosses. The move up from the early 2017 low has stalled against a possible wave [iv] target but has not quite pushed low enough to break the uptrend.
Both scenarios suggest bullish opportunities in coming months
With the USD weakness that we have being seeing over the past few weeks, it is a good time to update the monthly and weekly charts on both the main and alternate EW counts on a popular ETF for USD, (UUP).
Bearish scenario still in the lead
Price is putting stress on a supportive trend line, forcing a squeeze between support and resistance.
Since I just updated the DX monthly and weekly charts, thought I would plough ahead and update the ETF UUP as well. Same story, expect a wave (iv) has been set and looking for a new high over that of the early 2017 high in the next 18-24 months.
Just refreshing the long term charts on the Dollar Index (DX). The forecast is unchanged in that I think that that the Dollar has at least one last high left in it over the next two years.
I've been asked for an update on GBP and since the equity indices should quiet down over the next 1.5 hours till the FOMC statement, think I have enough time to get this done. Overall think GBP, like many of the major USD crosses, has spent the last year correcting up in a wave [iv] and should be close to pressing lower in a wave [v] over the next 18 months.