Japanese Yen retrospective for 2013: We caught the biggest trade

T
here was really only one safe swing trade in the Yen this year, but it was a big one. When it was ripe, we and our subscribers were ready to pounce on it. As with our other 2013 retrospective articles, we’re tooting our own horn a little bit here, but we also think these charts will give you some insights about how to trade along with TOTM.

We had been following the Yen trade even before 2013 for our premium subscribers. However, in January it looked as though the first big downward move was nearing completion. Here is the first Yen chart we posted on our public blog, when we cautioned anyone who was still short to take profits and wait for another opportunity.

By July, we had identified a target for the retrace. (We weren’t encouraging a long trade into the target though, and that’s good, because the retrace level ended up not working out.)

At the end of August, we proposed a swing trade to take advantage of what looked like a developing 4th-wave triangle. Even though triangles can be difficult to forecast precisely in terms of how long they will last, they can be a very friendly pattern for the patient trader.

The triangle lasted longer than we first estimated it would, but in late October we had a pretty good read on where it would end and where to try the short trade. We identified targets for decline. We also defined the level where our scenario would be invalidated, and thus the level where stops should be placed.

The trade started moving favorably in November.

Now at the beginning of 2014, price has reached its first target for the current move. We think it can continue lower before a serious bounce, but it doesn’t have to.

Is this the kind of trading information that can help you? Do you want to learn how to trade multiple markets with a toolkit that has something for every market condition? At TOTM, we offer a subscription that’s tailored to the needs of swing traders and another subscription that gives intraday traders a real edge in ES and other highly-traded futures contracts. Find the service that matches your trading style, and try it out for a month. Just watch how your perspective on the markets changes during that time.

1 comment to Japanese Yen retrospective for 2013: We caught the biggest trade

  • […] By the time we started writing publicly about the Yen, price had already traced much of the enormous “3rd of a 3rd” wave of 2012-2013. In January 2013, we encouraged our readers who had been riding the short trade to take profits at two target levels. Then we advised waiting for the next shorting opportunity to set up. Now we find ourselves suggesting a similar strategy going forward from January 2014. (A recap of our coverage of the Yen in 2013 can be found here.) […]

Leave a Reply