The typical Daily Update includes charts and forecasts for the S&P 500, Dollar Index, Euro futures, 30-year bond futures, crude oil futures, and gold futures.
They decided to not only fill the first overhead gap but the second as well yesterday in the S&P 500. Today should be confined to a 10 point range between 2580 and 2590 SPX. The lower zone was tested in futures early this morning complicating the early morning trade somewhat as I don't know if it will be tested in the day session to get a cash print or just drift up from the cash open a few points higher.
The S&P 500 was tricky yesterday, pushing toward the expected target zone quickly in the morning then testing 2570 SPX. Expecting a modest push over 2570 SPX today in an attempt to close the first overhead gap.
The S&P 500 will likely start the day with a gap down and an open near 2570 SPX. Ideal to see a push lower from that area down toward 2562 or 2558 SPX. I certainly wouldn't mind to see lower in the...
The S&P 500 indeed find an early morning low yesterday as expected but instead of only bouncing a few points and being trapped for the day, it pushed up to test the November 9th high. It still has the look to a lower high in the making and thus have a bias to lower. However, if 2578 SPX holds as support, a rally to attempt to fill the overhead gap is possible. Ideal in my view is that 2578 SPX is tested but only results in a shallow bounce.
Moving on from my technical difficulties, here are the gold and bond charts.
The big picture in the US equity indices is that they can use a rest and form a consolidation pattern into early next year. Anything in the range of 100 to 200 S&P 500 points would not do serious damage to the trend up from early 2016.
Nice follow-through lower yesterday in the morning to the expected target for the day but had a pretty steady recovery from the low into the end of the day which certainly complicates things. It would have made things easier for bears if they closed under 2580 SPX. That said, I am still going to treat this as a retest of the 2580-2588 zone that was lost yesterday. I think they are setting the market up for more decline next week.
The S&P 500 did make an attempt to push up to test 2600 yesterday but fell just short of a new high. The S&P 500 futures did go on to make a new high over that of Tuesday early last night and have been under selling pressure since. I'm not interested in buying the pullback at this point. There may be a bounce today but favor selling retraces. If the close today is under 2580 SPX, we may finally have a more substantive retrace starting.
The outlook for today is much the same as yesterday in the S&P 500. The market is being drawn toward the round number of 2600 but any misstep now that takes SPX under the previous target zone of 2580-2588 will mark possible reversal that can take the market at least 60-90 points lower. Short term, as much as I dislike it, I have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt and let them try again for 2600.
The S&P 500 seems to be determined to test the next round number at 2600. If that is their intention, a modest correction that holds above 2582 keeps the up trend intact and allows the market a brief rest to gain energy for a push to the round number.