The typical Daily Update includes charts and forecasts for the S&P 500, Dollar Index, Euro futures, 30-year bond futures, crude oil futures, and gold futures.
The S&P 500 was choppy as expected yesterday. Should see SPX start the day on the back foot today but doubt it is very long lasting as it should open not far from support at 2698. Should firm up there and rise into tomorrow.
The S&P 500 stayed on track yesterday and filled the gap to the March 21st close. There may be a small stutter step this morning but think there should be more upside left in the swing up from April 13th. 2703 and 2697 SPX are supports for the morning.
The game plan for the SPX remains the same as yesterday, grind higher to at least the 2712-2715 area if not 2733 before much of a consolidation.
We will see if the S&P 500 can finally break over the April 5th and March 5th swing highs today. They tried early last Friday but was not able to sustain it. By the look of the futures as I type, SPX will likely open near 2672. Once over 2672, play for at least 2688 but by that point they should push for 2712 to 2715 SPX.
The good news is that the S&P 500 is attempting to rise, the bad news is that it is still having trouble pushing over the March 27th and April 5th swing highs. Still think the next move of note should be to break over those highs and fill the March 21st gap. As I type, futures are pushing past the high of yesterday so odds look good for a gap up day. If the open is over 2679, don't fight the rise, go with it and aim for at least 2698. If just under or at 2679 SPX, there is a chance of a small consolidation before pushing past.
The S&P 500 has been consolidating in a relatively narrow range for the past two days just under April 5th high and around the daily 20 EMA. Bearish market participants have not been able to push lower in any meaningful way against that resist and it is not like they couldn't find an excuse to do so with the news headline over the last few days. I read that inability to push lower as bullish but can't argue with the idea of letting the market move up out of the range before taking a position.
The S&P 500 managed to fill the April 5th gap yesterday but couldn't advance past which makes sense considering that the FOMC minutes will be released later today at 14:00. Equity futures pulled back from that area overnight and should cause the SPX to open near 2632 this morning. It would not be unusual for the market to be under some pressure this morning, perhaps even testing 2622 but by late morning should stabilize and even bounce a bit before 14:00. If the FOMC minutes don't sound too hawkish, the rally should push past the recent highs and work on filling the next overhead gap. If is sounds like the Fed is planning to be very aggressive in raising rates, then a push toward 2584 SPX and lower to 2573 SPX is on the table for late today and early tomorrow.
The S&P 500 held to the general forecast though with somewhat exaggerated moves up in the morning and lower in the afternoon. Today I think the goal will be to attempt to fill the gap from April 5th but not put much stress on that high before the FOMC minutes tomorrow afternoon. The open should be between 2637 and 2644 and a positive bias till either 2653 or 2665 is tested.
The S&P 500 should aim for at least 2619 if not 2628 today before running into much of a headwind, even 2640 SPX would not be shocking. After 2628 or so is tested, a modest correction is possible but think it more sideways than down.
Equity futures sold off a bit last night on increased tariff rhetoric and stabilized early this morning. So far the reaction to the NFP in equity futures has been pretty mild, bouncing up from the early morning lows. Bonds, gold, and Euro all tested 240 minute 20 EMAs and attempted to push down from them. Don't know if that will persist through the rest of the day. Back to S&P 500, I expect it to spend the day trying to fill the overhead gap that we will have this morning.