Two ways a decline might play out
4th wave correction nearly complete
I was working on the ETF that tracks crude oil, (USO), and have decided to promote what I had as an alternate count in crude to the primary, that there is one more high needed to complete a five wave sequence up from the low from last year.
Since there are elections coming up this weekend in Italy, thought it would be a good time to update the big picture charts for this ETF. I have interest in it as it has formed a classic triangle from the 2009 low and may have completed at the start of this year. I also think it can turn into a canary in the mine, a harbinger for the future.
An overall bullish expectation with some targets to watch
As a continuation of the post yesterday taking a look at the big picture, here is much the same but using the ETF for the Russell 2000 (IWM). The idea expressed here is the same, that we are now in wave (iv) of [v] up from the 2009 low. Expect at least a few months of mostly sideways price action before a push to a new high.
Both scenarios suggest bullish opportunities in coming months
With the USD weakness that we have being seeing over the past few weeks, it is a good time to update the monthly and weekly charts on both the main and alternate EW counts on a popular ETF for USD, (UUP).
Price is putting stress on a supportive trend line, forcing a squeeze between support and resistance.
Since I just updated the DX monthly and weekly charts, thought I would plough ahead and update the ETF UUP as well. Same story, expect a wave (iv) has been set and looking for a new high over that of the early 2017 high in the next 18-24 months.
Right now the bearish case looks best
UNG, the ETF that tracks natural gas, has elected to take the alternate path from when I last posted these charts by pushing to a new low under that of the 2016 low. The dominant cycle has shifted a...
Catching this decline and bounce in stocks might be easier than trading the metal itself.
Signs that this triangle pattern can break downward
I find the iShares MSCI Italy ETF interesting for two reasons. One, so far, it is a textbook example of a triangle formation that has spanned nearly nine years. Two, if the triangle pattern holds and the Italian markets turn down, could that be a precursor to other European equity markets topping and even mark a turning point in the Euro? I don't know if the triangle pattern will hold or if it will be an early warning to other problems on the continent, but it does look like a trading opportunity is nearby.
We think it's time for the downward trend to resume
A sizable correction is due
I went ahead and did the copper analysis for the respective ETN. I've added some additional chart geometry and the Wave 59 9-5 study to the monthly chart but otherwise the story is the same as for copper futures.
I have been putting off a bigger picture gold post as I have been reevaluating the big picture EW counts. Let me start with the two scenarios I had been using and move on from there.
The index can climb still higher after a modest correction
The theme from when I posted these remains the same from about a week ago. I just added the next steps up in the charts to keep an I on.
The Russell 2000 is in a similar position as most of the other major indices. Probably in wave (iii) of [v] up from the 2009 low. This implies one more down/up move before any serious correction sets in.
Counting an Elliott fourth wave in the upward progression
To my eye, grains are in an ending diagonal or wedge in the latter stages of its development. Let us start with the ETN JJG which I think has the same ending diagonal form as wheat and corn but where a wedge is easier to see.
Updated weekly chart but very little change from the earlier post here which you should read as a reminder of the possibilities. The most noteworthy difference is that the cycle detection is focusing on a shorter cycle which has the ideal low at the end of September.
I know that I just posted these last week but made slight changes to the targets on the weekly chart and think that the broader market is on the same path, closing in on a summer low.
XLY is on plan correcting as expected. Can use a little lower over the next week or three to test ♦♦.♦♦ to ♦♦.♦♦ after which we see if they can muster enough energy to push to a new high, the main scenario, or if any bounce sets a lower high, the alternate.
We still believe a low is nearby, and this post explores some ways to trade it with the expectation of a bounce.
The Euro ETF has moved a bit higher than we anticipated in our June 16 post, but bears have a strong chance of countering the rally and taking price to new lows.