We think it's time for the downward trend to resume
A sizable downward correction is due
I went ahead and did the copper analysis for the respective ETN. I've added some additional chart geometry and the Wave 59 9-5 study to the monthly chart but otherwise the story is the same as for copper futures.
I have been putting off a bigger picture gold post as I have been reevaluating the big picture EW counts. Let me start with the two scenarios I had been using and move on from there.
The index can climb still higher after a modest correction
The theme from when I posted these remains the same from about a week ago. I just added the next steps up in the charts to keep an I on.
The Russell 2000 is in a similar position as most of the other major indices. Probably in wave (iii) of [v] up from the 2009 low. This implies one more down/up move before any serious correction sets in.
Counting an Elliott fourth wave in the upward progression
To my eye, grains are in an ending diagonal or wedge in the latter stages of its development. Let us start with the ETN JJG which I think has the same ending diagonal form as wheat and corn but where a wedge is easier to see.
Updated weekly chart but very little change from the earlier post here which you should read as a reminder of the possibilities. The most noteworthy difference is that the cycle detection is focusing on a shorter cycle which has the ideal low at the end of September.
I know that I just posted these last week but made slight changes to the targets on the weekly chart and think that the broader market is on the same path, closing in on a summer low.
XLY is on plan correcting as expected. Can use a little lower over the next week or three to test ♦♦.♦♦ to ♦♦.♦♦ after which we see if they can muster enough energy to push to a new high, the main scenario, or if any bounce sets a lower high, the alternate.
We still believe a low is nearby, and this post explores some ways to trade it with the expectation of a bounce.
The Euro ETF has moved a bit higher than we anticipated in our June 16 post, but bears have a strong chance of countering the rally and taking price to new lows.