Trading On The Mark

Apple to consolidate decline

phi — Mon, 06 May 2013 01:09:25 +0000

Apple is bouncing from support that we have alerted our subscribers to for many weeks. Potential initial targets for the bounce are listed on the chart (460, 508, and 545) but corrections are notoriously difficult to forecast. We suspect that a touch of the lower main channel will be resist but where that is in price is contingent on the speed of the bounce. We can say that the bounce should have a choppy feel compared to the recent decline.

apple monthly EW count

Calculating when to cash in on copper

Kurt — Fri, 03 May 2013 14:15:17 +0000

Last December, we presented the bearish scenario we were forecasting for copper. A few months later, when prices seemed on the verge of breaking downward out of their consolidation range, we posted an update confirming that the market was behaving as expected, and offering some preliminary price targets. We mention the previous articles here, because we believe they are helpful in showing the reader how a trade develops, as well as the distinction between the time when a potential trade is first identified and the time when an entry becomes more favorable. Now, we attempt to identify where the trade . . . → Read More

Gold needs a lower low before it can really bounce

Kurt — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 14:51:42 +0000

The short-term bearish path that we forecast on March 1 as the most likely scenario for gold appears to be playing out. However, that does not mean we think the decline will extend a great deal farther. In fact, the majority of the decline is probably already over. There might still be a trade to the down side, but that trade probably will be heading into a long-term low. Even so, the chance to begin an enduring bounce and rally is likely weeks or months away. Our analysis suggests that gold needs, at a minimum, another lower low before the . . . → Read More

Bradley Siderograph for 2013

phi — Sat, 20 Apr 2013 18:48:47 +0000

The Bradley timing model has not had much influence on the stock market to this point as you can see in the chart below. The black heavy line is the Dow up to April 19th 2013 plotted with the Bradley siderograph as a blue dotted line. The most important things to pay attention to when interpreting the Bradley line are the inflection points, which are marked, and not as much the direction or magnitude of the line. This Bradley siderograph was calculated by Wave59.

Bradley Siderograph for 2013

. . . → Read More

Euro Stoxx Falling Away From Resistance

Kurt — Wed, 17 Apr 2013 23:01:00 +0000

In the second part of a series this month, we examine how major stock indices globally are behaving during a time when U.S. indices are showing signs of exhaustion. In the previous post we identified resistance areas and a possible turning point in the Global Dow Index (INDEXJS:GDOW). Now we turn to regional indexes, beginning with the Euro Stoxx 50 Index (INDEXSTOXX:SX5E).

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index includes 50 blue-chip stocks from 12 Eurozone countries. It serves as the underlying for a variety of futures and options contracts, as well as exchange traded funds such as the SPDR Euro Stoxx . . . → Read More

How Are Global Stock Indices Faring? Part 1: Global Dow

Kurt — Wed, 10 Apr 2013 15:10:13 +0000

Elsewhere, we have noted that the major United States stock indices variously show signs of topping and exhaustion. Are there regional stock markets outside the U.S. that are likely to hold up better? This month, we present a series of articles examining some of the most-watched equity indices globally, and we apply the combination of Elliott Wave and other technical analysis methods that readers here are familiar with. As context for the later parts of the series, we begin by focusing on the Global Dow Index (GDOW).

GDOW consists of 150 blue-chip stocks that are selected by the Wall Street . . . → Read More

Apple Is Testing Support and Probably Trying To Bounce

Kurt — Thu, 14 Mar 2013 19:32:18 +0000

In late January, we mentioned that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) appeared to be finishing the first portion of its downward correction from the November 2012 high, and we showed why price should try to find support in the region between 405 and 445. Last week, Apple found support just above the ideal 415 level, and it is possible that the first downward slide is now finished. From here, we expect several months of corrective price action, which should take the stock in a net upward direction. The nature of the corrective pattern throughout the rest of the year may provide clues about . . . → Read More

Copper Inching Toward Confirmation of Bearish Scenario

Kurt — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 17:02:28 +0000

In December, we presented a bearish scenario for copper based on classic Elliot wave analysis. Also, because copper is a bellwether for economic activity generally, we suggested that lower prices for copper might forecast a slowing of the global economy and a decline in stock markets. That outcome would be consistent with our view that most western stock indices appear to be completing top formations.

Now, three months after our initial article, copper could be on the verge of confirming (or invalidating) our suggestion that it has been tracing a bearish triangle formation since mid-2011. Below, we describe the signs . . . → Read More

Will a small bounce in gold become a much larger move? We examine three scenarios

Kurt — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 14:07:42 +0000

In late January, we mentioned that we were watching gold to see whether price could break through overhead resistance represented by a channel line and also the specific Fibonacci-derived level of 1730.50. Breaking through would have favored a near-term bullish view. However, since that time, price has fallen away from the channel line and is on the verge of making a fresh low on a weekly timeframe. This makes one of the near-term bullish counts less likely, although it cannot yet be ruled out. Of the other two prominent counts, one is near-term bullish, and the other would call for . . . → Read More

What To Watch With Apple After Earnings Day

Kurt — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 11:12:29 +0000

Our subscribers know we have been watching Apple closely in recent weeks. In the wake of AAPL’s strong reaction to Wednesday’s earnings report, here are some signals and areas to watch as support and, if there is a bounce, as overhead resistance.

Our working Elliott wave count has had AAPL tracing out a 4th wave, or perhaps the first part of a 4th wave. However, price has recently poked below the channel boundary on a monthly timeframe, as shown in the first chart, and it has moved below the initial support range of 463-473 that we had identified. Probing beyond . . . → Read More

Japanese Yen – the short trade looks done

Kurt — Wed, 23 Jan 2013 22:16:51 +0000

Several weeks ago, we alerted subscribers to the potential for a short trade in the yen. Those who took advantage of it should now be looking to take profits or otherwise manage their trade. For now, the short trade looks overdone. From here, we would watch for a pause or a bounce. Note that the dominant cycle on the weekly timeframe is currently near a low, suggesting at least the need for things to reset if price is to explore lower areas later.

Gold update: resistance area to watch

Kurt — Wed, 23 Jan 2013 20:01:35 +0000

A few weeks ago, we mentioned that Elliott wave analysis suggested that gold was trying to bounce from the 1628 area. So far, that scenario has played out nicely.

Now we’re watching the upper edge of a potential channel to see whether it acts as resistance. If it reaches the upper boundary this week, then it would be in the vicinity of 1713. The channel boundary will be one of the first decision points that will provide a clue about whether price can climb higher.

Note that our primary count (shown in blue) considers the up-move to . . . → Read More

German Equities Hinting at a Turn Downward

Kurt — Thu, 17 Jan 2013 12:31:02 +0000

Several of our posts in recent months have featured resistance areas to watch in U.S. equities indices, and our regular readers know we believe equities are ready for a significant downturn, if one has not already begun. We also are starting to see signals in some European indices that suggest they are preparing for a meaningful pullback or perhaps a larger downturn too. Here we show some of the warning signs that appear in the DAX – the closely-watched index of 30 German blue-chip companies.

On the monthly candle chart, note that the 8136 price area has capped advances twice . . . → Read More

Spanish Equities are Reaching a Decision Point

Kurt — Tue, 15 Jan 2013 15:58:47 +0000

Last April, amid pessimistic news reports, we wrote that opportunities might be emerging to go long in Spanish equities. We mentioned that the Dow Jones Spain Titans 30 Index would probably complete two more small moves, up and down, and then would attempt a larger bounce. That was an example of using Elliott wave analysis to identify the requirements for a completed pattern prior to a turn. The pattern completed, and the bounce occurred basically as we said it would.

Now we see signals that Spanish equities may be ready to turn downward again, based on the Dow Jones Spain . . . → Read More

Spanish Equities are Reaching a Decision Point

Kurt — Tue, 15 Jan 2013 14:00:08 +0000

Now we see signals that Spanish equities may be ready to turn downward again, based on the Dow Jones Spain . . . → Read More

Gold may bounce from this targeted support level

Kurt — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 00:54:08 +0000

On December 12, we noted that gold appeared to be winding its way through a corrective move, and we suggested two support levels that could produce a bounce – 1668.70 and 1628.10. We also suggested that it was a good time for those wanting to be long gold to step aside, unless they were prepared to trade short.

Last week, gold reached the lower target support level and began an attempt at a bounce. That support level is also near a channel line we have been watching. So what is next?

We see three . . . → Read More

Gold may bounce from this targeted support level

Kurt — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 23:22:31 +0000

On December 12, we noted for readers of SafeHaven that gold appeared to be winding its way through a corrective move, and we suggested two support levels that could produce a bounce – 1668.70 and 1628.10. We also suggested that it was a good time for those wanting to be long gold to step aside, unless they were prepared to trade short.

Last week, gold reached the lower target support level and began an attempt at a bounce. That support level is also near a channel line we have been watching. So what is next? . . . → Read More

A Developing Trade in Copper Might Confirm Bearish View of Equities

Kurt — Sat, 22 Dec 2012 03:11:12 +0000

The price of copper has long been seen to correspond to the development of industry and infrastructure, because the metal is required for important steps in the creation of electrical power systems and the components of heavy industry. This prompts analysts to use it as a leading indicator of economic activity and stock markets. Even so, as with any commodity, the market for copper obeys its own logic of speculation and extremes of price into overbought and oversold territory. We believe the copper market is offering signals about where price will go during the next two years and what the . . . → Read More

Snippets and insights from the June 22 newsletter

Kurt — Thu, 21 Jun 2012 20:26:38 +0000

Here are some of the things we’re covering in the newsletter this week.

Some Indices May Still Have Juice

In the big picture, major equities indices are giving mixed signals about whether the market has reached a top. (This kind of inconsistency or divergence among indexes is typical for major long-term tops.)

For example, the NYSE Composite Index may already have turned overall downward and may now be working on a series of upward retracements. However, some indices look poised to reach new highs. We discuss those in our newsletter.

Bonds Wrapping It . . . → Read More

A new look for us

Kurt — Sun, 20 May 2012 21:46:21 +0000

We are excited to announce that we are changing the name of our website to Trading On The Mark — a name we think better conveys how we approach market analysis and trading. If you haven’t already done so, please check out our new Facebook page (www.facebook.com/TradingOnTheMark). Clicking “like” will ensure that you get a notification when we post occasional comments there about intraday markets and trading opportunities. Everything else is the same for subscribers; same username, password, etc.

Spain – Falling knife now but for how much longer?

phi — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 10:47:36 +0000

Since Spain has been in the news I thought I would have a quick look at a chart and note some first impressions.

This is the Dow Jones Spain Titans 30 index weekly.

My first thought after looking at this chart was that this is along the lines I thought the SPX would look like after the decline into 2009. Thank uncle Ben and the others at the Federal Reserve for that. Anyway, this market is a falling knife for now but that could start to ease up soon. Ideally this could use a small up or sideways and . . . → Read More

Video Comments on Bonds 2012-04-15

phi — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 16:21:14 +0000

Our first YouTube video. Let us know if you like it and want to see more.

US 30 year bonds – 2012-04-14

phi — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 00:15:04 +0000

I haven’t been overly interested in US 30 year bonds for some time but it may be nearing time to put it back on the radar (we were all over low in February last year). In the grand scheme of things I have maintained the position that bonds are likely to stay higher longer then most can imagine. That said things are starting to get interesting.

First take a look at this chart of the 30yr futures continuous contract.

US 30yr bonds monthly futures continuous contract

We all know that bonds have been in a monster uptrend for many . . . → Read More

Bradley turns for rest 2012

phi — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 19:08:12 +0000

This weekend is one of the major Bradley siderograph turns for this year. How well does it predict turns in financial markets? Well enough that it sparked my interest in looking into astronomical event correlation to financial markets. The model can go cold for stretches then begin again to work quite well. The inflections are what matter, not the direction of the line, and allow for a few days +/- the inflection for a turn in the market. Will this one work? I don’t know. The market has chewed through other timing models for the last two months.

I have attached the . . . → Read More

Who cares if the market has hit bottom?

Kurt — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 20:54:26 +0000

Amid the turmoil in the markets this week, followers of TdN have done well — especially with intraday trading guided in our chat room. Today, we capitalized on the downtrend that continued from the overnight session, while noting that ES persistently found support around the S1 area (1120-21), so that was a good place to close short trades each time. Our analyst also noted that ES would have to climb above the 1128 area before it could be considered to have enough momentum for a rally. The market toyed with climbing over 1128 through the latter part of the morning . . . → Read More