The SPX had made an attempt to break up out of the range but failed yesterday. I still favor a bullish outcome to a break out of the range but my confidence is waning the longer it takes.
Starting out backing up just a bit to see where I think we are at in the bigger pictures. I’m not convinced that the wave (iii) high has been set which implies a new high before going into a correction that either via price or time test the bottom of the channel. If the wave (iii) high is in, we are probably somewhere in the middle of the wave (iv) correction.
The longer this struggles to break up, the more I’m starting to think they break a little lower to test the median of the channel on this chart.
Crude is pretty resilient, no doubt helped by the current geopolitical headlines. Need price back under 52.26 before thinking a retrace is commencing.
The dollar should come back under a little selling pressure soon. If not, it argues for some form of the alternate count becoming active.
No reason to think gold is in any trouble at this point.
Similar story in bonds, I want to see at least 153^24 before worrying much about any possible reversal.
