The market has been choppy keeping several paths open. Overall, I think they are trying to take the market up, either to a new high or lower high, into the next FOMC meeting that is two weeks away. The opposite is of course still possible but looks like a lower odds outcome. The good news is that they should show their hand over the next couple days.

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We will start out with a move lower this morning but will be watching to see if support holds for a possible higher low to the low of last week. If the low from last week is exceeded, there should be a relatively quick break lower for about 50 SPX points.

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The June contract will be the front contract today. Nice to see the recent drip lower but sitting on minor Fibonacci support at 52.65.

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We will see how the dollar handles this touch of support. If the support holds over the next few days, will assume the dollar is ready to advance into the end of the year. If the support fails, will look for further weakness over the next several weeks.

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Gold may creep a little higher but anyone trading gold from the long side should be minding their position.

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I’d like to see 156^12 tested into the end of the month but this may very well be the last part of the bounce form late last year.

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