The Day Ahead 2017-10-04

I had been assuming an ending diagonal count in the S&P 500 up from the August 18th low but it is starting to look more like a 1-2-1-2 type count which means there is room for another down up sequence before a more substantial correction. I admit I am not very comfortable forecasting another ‘buy the dip’ opportunity after a shallow retrace. I think it more useful to think about it as a warning to not get overly bearish until under 2495 SPX.

20171004_spx_65min

Not much to add on the Dollar Index. It may correct a bit from current levels but think they are trying to find a way to test 95.31 and perhaps more.

20171004_dx_daily

Similar story in Euro but the inverse. I can see a retrace up in the short term but expect a test of lower support after a bounce.

20171004_euro_daily

Crude needs to use the inventory data today to climb out of the hole or risk breaking the uptrend from June.

20171004_crude_daily

The micro count in gold is not clear to me. Gold could easily still leak lower before much of a bounce.

20171004_gc_daily

I have similar reservations about the micro count in bonds as I am not sure we have completed the first impulse down yet, or the possibility that it is preparing to accelerate in a 1-2-1-2 type count.

20171004_bonds_daily

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