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The Day Ahead 2016-06-21

The market is still at the mercy of Brexit polling. According to the Financial Times it is pretty even at the moment. We also have the Yellen testimony at 10am EDT that could be a wildcard. Absent any surprises, expect choppy range bound trade with a modest higher bias.

The Day Ahead 2016-06-20

The market is buoyant on prospects of the status quo being unchanged. Expect the indices to have a positive bias today though an initial pause in the morning would be welcome.

S&P 500 (SPX) 2016-06-20

I can’t help but be skeptical in the longer term but can’t rule out an eventual test of 2139. Due to the odds improving for the remain camp in the upcoming UK referendum on the EU, the equity markets probably have a mild bullish bias into the middle of this week.

Dollar Index 2016-06-20

The recent FOMC decision took the air out of the DX sails for the moment but expect the dollar to eventually move up out of this consolidation patter.

Crude Oil futures 2016-06-20

It has been stubborn but expect crude to head lower before any substantive bounce.

US 30 Year Bond futures 2016-06-20

To repeat myself, bonds are not for widows and children at this point. Form and cycles argue for an important high close at hand.

S&P 500 (SPX) Update

It appears market participants are nervous out being long over the weekend.

The Day Ahead 2016-06-17

Today is a quad expiry which often makes for dull trading. Yesterday did finally come through with the move I originally was shopping for but threw me off initially by being weaker than expected right of the open. Closing out the week consolidating in this area makes perfect sense to me.

US 30 Year Bond futures 2016-06-16

As you know, I think bonds may be in the process of making an important high soon. Updated daily chart for you.

The Day Ahead 2016-06-16

Note: revised SPX which had a typo The FOMC decision was as most expected, no change. Now what? The UK referendum next week on whether or not to remain in the EU is probably the next news item that grabs the attention of traders. The equity markets bouncing into Friday or Monday as a way […]