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The Day Ahead 2016-05-19

The equity markets didn’t like tone of the FOMC minutes which led to selling. Think it best to maintain a bearish bias with the goal of pushing under May 6th low. The problem is that the market will be choppy every time it approaches these lows until it breaks under.

The Day Ahead 2016-05-18

The main event today will be the FOMC minutes at 14:00 EDT. If the minutes sound hawkish, breaking under the May 6th is possible.

The Day Ahead 2016-05-17

The equity market should retrace at a minimum today, more is possible. Continue to be skeptical of the crude advance. Dollar continues to behave well.

The Day Ahead 2016-05-16

SPX under 2041 can kick off a 25-30 decline or more over the next several days.

Crude Oil 2016-05-16

Crude oil has pushed past the top of the channel taking any notion of shorting off the table before seeing a failure first. That said, not convinced a major reversal up is starting since the rise up from the low has a great deal of overlap in it.

Treasury 30 year yield (TYX) 2016-05-15

At this point have to allow for a push to a possible new low in yield over the next month or two. Any new low is not expected to last long and rebound quickly.

Expanding on our Canadian Dollar forecast: A-B-C versus W-X-Y

In our latest post at Trader Planet, we showed a near-term bearish but long-term bullish path for the Canadian Dollar as it emerges from a corrective pattern that has spanned eight years. Basically, we expect it to decline into a higher low, and then bounce. However, as is often the case with corrective patterns, it is difficult to be certain that the correction is truly finished. It could reach for a lower low instead.

US 30 Year Bond futures 2016-05-15

I had been assuming the move over the past year as a triangle and now moving to seeing the correction down from early 2015 ending in June 2015, thus looking for a five wave move up which calls for one more high.

Dollar Index 2016-05-15

Having just mentioned the Dollar in the last post, still looking for DX to recover and push to a new high over that of last year. Dollar strength should weigh on commodities and suppress precious metals through next year.

Copper futures 2016-05-15

Dr. Copper is still under pressure and reinforces my overall bearish macro outlook. The only question is if the late 2008 low will be exceeded to which I suspect the answer is yes.