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The Day Ahead 2016-12-21

The S&P 500 has taken the first step to break up from the triangle that formed over the last several days. This week is historically positive and will assume the market attempts to continue to grind yet higher.

The Day Ahead 2016-12-20

The equity indices are up early this morning suggesting that they are finally ready to push up out of the range.

The short trade worked well in the Yen. What’s next?

The trade played out very nicely, but the decline may now be coming to an end. It is time to start watching support areas…

Treasury bond meltdown is overdone

Treasury bonds have put in a steep decline in recent months, but we believe they should find support nearby.

The Day Ahead 2016-12-19

The market probably increasingly thins out this week as we approach Christmas. Have been working on the assumption that the equity indices are in a holding pattern last week and can see that drift into this week but looks like it should eventually break higher.

US 30 Year Bond futures 2016-12-18

Bonds should be preparing for a bounce but the scale of bounce is open to debate. I’m changing my primary view to a small bounce, perhaps for a month or two, before heading lower from which a more substantial bounce, either in price or time, can take place. Note: Weekly chart was not showing up, […]

The Day Ahead 2016-12-16

The equity indices accommodated the idea of rising from support yesterday but failed to make a new high. Can’t rule out further sideways action testing the range today but lean toward a positive bias.

The Day Ahead 2016-12-15

We have the FOMC out of the way now with the equity markets attempting to shrug it off. They may very well do so in the short term but think we are in the late stages of the advance.

Recent bond meltdown overdone

As treasury bonds and TLT get ready to test the next areas of support, traders who took advantage of the decline should now be watching for signals that they should take profits.

The Day Ahead 2016-12-14

The main event today is the FOMC rate decision at 14:00. There will likely be volatility across most asset classes on the statement as well as risk during the Q&A portion of the press conference that begins at 14:30.