Dollar conditions right for a bounce

Our bullish analysis is a little controversial

Expect a crude oil correction

but there’s a more bullish alternative too

This could be the top in S&P 500

(The alternative is for it to extend considerably higher after a retrace.)

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Some of our recent posts:

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2021-01-12

Bonds started the day moving lower to test 167^16 then had a nice intraday reversal up that took it up through the 168^05 to 167^29 support range and just underneath old support at 168^31.

The Week Ahead 2019-12-29

Since bonds have held the 155^11 support for the last three weeks, I'm now leaning toward a retest of resist, say 159^24, before breaking lower in the spring.

The Week Ahead 2019-12-23

Not much change last week in bonds as it traded in the range of the week before and is still holding above the 155^11 support. I suspect a week or two of bounce before breaking lower to at least test 152^25. This correction still strikes me as a little shallow for 'c of (b)' to be complete. I also think the cycles support lower for at least another month.

The Week Ahead 2019-12-16

Bonds have been trapped between resist at 159^24 and support at 155^11. I can't guarantee resist will not be tested again before dropping through 155^11 and at least testing 152^25. As it stands, this is too shallow to my eye for wave 'c of (b)' to be complete and cycles suggest the inflection is late January of next year at the earliest.

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TOTM’s technical approach is grounded in Elliott wave and Gann techniques, while also making use of Fibonacci relationships in price and time, historical cycles analysis, proprietary technical indicators, and other more esoteric methods.

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