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Morning & evening updates

We chart the S&P 500, crude oil, the Euro, Dollar Index, treasury bonds, and gold, typically with a morning and evening post for every trading day.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2018-12-17

Bonds bounced up today as the equity indices dropped which was mentioned as a possibility if 142^15 held as support. Either they set a lower high against 143^18 or the alternate count becomes active where the move up from the November low becomes a five wave move instead of a three.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2018-12-13

Bonds reached the first support level of 142^15 today. What next? If wave (a) is to only be an a-b-c formation, it could be done and thus any bounce set a lower high before rolling lower in the first steps of 'a of (b)'. The other option is that (a) turns into a five wave sequence, which implies a modest new high to the December 10th high before a more serious retrace.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2018-12-12

Bonds are attempting to roll down with the daily cycles but must drop under 142^15 and 141^25 before becoming more confident that wave (b) lower is in progress.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2018-12-11

Bonds pulled back a bit from resist at 143^24 today but still above the first support at 142^15 thus can't say that overhead resistance will not be tested again.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2018-12-10

Let me start the evening series of charts with a weekly chart of the New York Composite. I know the drop in the equity indices this morning could have started to go wrong in a serious way but may I posit that the wave (iv) idea is alive and well thus far. If the speculation running around that the FOMC may hold rates steady in 2019 proves to be true, the idea of one last equity high next year is easier to believe.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2018-12-06

Bonds did stall in the 142^25 to 143^13 area today but need to have prices fall under 142^00 before we can get too excited about a reversal lower and the start of wave 'b'.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2018-12-04

US equity markets will be closed on Wednesday thus no regularly scheduled post though I plan to be at my desk to work on some big picture charts. Maybe some currency charts like GBP and Yen, will see.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2018-12-03

I'm starting the look at bonds with a revised weekly chart for perspective as with the thrust today has elected to take the alternate path where wave (i) ended on November 7th on a truncated low. That makes the current move 'a of (ii)' up.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2018-11-28

Another day of bonds not falling but not rising much either. A slight poke under 139^22 but recovered. At this rate they will hold till the next fast cycle inflection next Tuesday.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2018-11-26

A down day in bonds but not enough to drop under 139^22 which is the first step in rolling down. The real hurdle for bears is at 139^02 which coincides with the daily moving averages.

The Week in Review 2018-11-24

Bonds probed higher this last week but still looks like prices should roll lower with the longer dominant daily cycle into December. First step for a reversal lower is to fall back under old resistance at 139^22, next and more important to drop under 139^02.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2018-11-21

Promising drop in bonds today on an intraday basis but can't get too excited about it as they have yet to spend any real time under 139^22. Still need help from the equity market to let prices roll down into December with the dominant cycle. Next hurdle for bears after 139^22 is the daily moving averages around 138^26.

Weekly updates & other posts

(Public posts are included on this page too.)

The Week Ahead 2018-12-17

The defining item this week will be the FOMC statement and press conference on Wednesday as traders look for clues of a halt to the rate hikes in 2019.

Bradley Siderograph – Late 2018 into 2019

The Bradley Siderograph is timing model for stock market turns that while no means perfect is worth keeping an eye on. Main interest is in the inflection points on the graph, not the direction or magnitude of change. An example of this is that the May 23rd 2018 swing in the Bradley was the biggest swing in the graph but was weak but the next tiny inflection at the end of June resulted in a major low in equity prices and big rally. Below you will see a chart with the Dow and Bradley model with dates of the next inflections out into fall of next year. Of note is then next two, December 20th and January 16th, of which I think December 20th is more important since it is a day after the next FOMC meeting.

The Week Ahead 2018-12-09

Possibly an exciting start to the week in equities this week as we find out if the major supports fail. Not looking good as I type as S&P 500 futures are down 20 points but I don't like to read too much into Asian session Globex. In addition to the US and China tensions we have the ECB on Thursday morning along with contract roll.

The Week Ahead 2018-12-02

I'm adding the daily charts to the usual weekly charts this week. Might turn into the new normal instead of a post of daily charts late Friday or Saturday. The main event for the start of the week is reaction to the favorable trade news from the G20. S&P futures are up 46 points as I type. More than I would have guessed but consistent with one of the options talked about in chat late Friday. Equity markets will be closed on Wednesday. NFP on Friday morning.

The Week Ahead 2018-11-26

Regardless whether the nearly two month consolidation in bonds is a wave [IV] or wave ii, I still think bonds should roll lower in December. Bond prices traded in a pretty narrow range last week against resist at 140^11. It is a near term negative for my bearish forecast that the weekly cycles point toward a late December inflection point.

The Week Ahead 2018-11-18

Bonds have been consolidating under prior lows stretching back to 2016 for over a month now. I still favor net lower into March of next year but acknowledge that daily and weekly cycles are working against each other which helps account for this stall. I'd rather prices not poke much above 139^26 but anyone searching for a short is better off waiting for some confirmation first as they may poke up briefly to run stops before resuming lower.

The Week Ahead 2018-11-11

Bonds continue to consolidate after having punched under the group of prior lows stretching back into late 2016. I score that as negative in the medium term for bond prices and thus favor lower till at least a new low is made under that of October 12th. At that point we will see if they wish to use the last five weeks of consolidation as a wave ii, as shown on the chart, or a small degree wave four which will then trigger a wave two bounce that again retests the break around 139^26. As far as timing is concerned, I think the next major point is either March or May of next year which leaves us in a conundrum as to whether we fall or rise into said area, or perhaps get some frequency doubling that that allow for more than one change in trend. I'm leaning lower since we are under the prior lows but won't be stubborn about it if they firm up on a new low in December.

Copper Futures and Copper Miners ETF Update

Starting with the copper monthly chart for perspective. Primary thesis is that a large corrective formation completed at the 2016 low and that the climb up to the late 2017 high was the first impulse up from that low. That implies a corrective move lower and my assertion is that copper completed the first move of that correction in the summer of this year and due for a consolidative bounce before dropping in the last leg of the larger correction. I have penciled in the next corrective low to coincide with a cycle low middle of next year at a higher low to that of the 2016 low though a new price extreme in [b] would not break the pattern.

The Week Ahead 2018-11-05

Pretty eventful week coming up with ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 10:00 on Monday, US midterm elections on Tuesday, and the FOMC November meeting statement on Thursday at 14:00. I think there may be some room for US equity markets to bounce a little more Monday morning but wouldn't be surprised if selling comes in later in the day and Tuesday on some election nervousness. Overall, thinking equity can head higher later in the week but that is probably getting to far ahead of the game as will have to see how they behave overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

The Week Ahead 2018-10-28

Bonds have bounced to retest the prior break lower. Below I have added both of the ideas I am working with. Both imply lower into at least December and I wouldn't be surprised if it extended into March. The difference between both ideas is how much bounce takes place once the next low is set. The first would only result in a weak sidewise move versus the second which would bounce higher, perhaps near the 150 handle.

S&P 500 Update

As I have been looking at this in the morning, I have talked myself into this possibility which would imply the low was set yesterday and now in a rally off that low. Selling resistance at 2794 or 2707 is fair, but be prepared to not get a new low on the day out of it.

The Week Ahead 2018-10-21

The scheduled economic news is heavily weighted toward the middle to the end of the week with US New home sales Wednesday, the ECB press conference Thursday morning along with US Durable goods orders, and US GDP on Friday.

The Week Ahead 2018-10-14

Before looking at bonds, here is a chart of the 30 year Treasury yield. Yield has broken above the long enduring channel. The next cycle inflection is March of next year which suggests this break has several more months to run.

The Week Ahead 2018-10-07

Bonds extended lower last week have breaking under a series of prior lower. I'd like to see support form from a little lower and bounce retest the break before continuing lower.

The Week Ahead 2018-10-01

The week will start of dominated by exuberance that the trade agreement with Canada and Mexico got ironed out. Plenty of economic data this week with the high point being the NFP on Friday. That means there is plenty of news that can be used to move the markets around. On to the charts.

The Week Ahead 2018-09-23

To summarize expectations over the next three to six months: Bonds accelerate lower into spring of next year, US equities in a topping phase starting now and lasting as late as early next year, Dollar Index stronger in the period, Euro weaker, and gold net lower but should have a correction sideways to higher in the period. Let us move into the weekly charts.

The Week Ahead 2018-09-17

I'm going to do this post a little differently than I have been in the past. I have been requested to formulate my thoughts on the big picture and what may take place over several time periods, three, six, nine months and more into the future. I won't address that fully in this post, but later when I think more on it and prepare some charts but will mention ideas for where things could be in the three to six month window.

The Week Ahead 2018-09-09

Bonds appear to be dropping from a completed wave (ii). We will have more confidence in that hypothesis once under 142^03.

The Week Ahead 2018-09-03

Hope you all are enjoying the last long weekend of the summer. This next week will see people getting settled in and back to work.

The Week Ahead 2018-08-26

The main count in bonds is the 1-2,1-2 type count where prices break lower from near here in wave (iii). Next week is the half way point from the cycle low to the next projected high, a good point to look to see if prices are going to use the cycle inflections in a low to low fashion.

Copper Update (Futures and a mining ETF)

I relatively recently updated the copper futures charts as requested by a subscriber. At that time, my view was that copper was moving down in the last leg of wave (a) down from the high from late last year. I now think that (a) may be complete and ready to embark on a few months of choppy retrace up. Below you will find monthly and weekly copper futures charts and also monthly and weekly charts of a copper mining ETF (COPX).

The Week Ahead 2018-08-19

Bonds may make a deeper correction up over that of current prices but not required as on a lower time frame there is resist being tested now. That resist has caused a doji to form on the weekly bar last week.

The Week Ahead 2018-08-12

The strength of the move up in bonds last week argues that the alternate count from last week, where a 'b' wave low was being set, is in fact playing out. That means there should be more to the rally for the next couple weeks to test 146^18 or 147^25.

The Week Ahead 2018-08-05

As I mentioned last week, it does bother me that shorting bonds is a popular trade but that is normal for a third wave. If bonds fail to drop under the May low in the next couple months, than the alternate count is in force and can result in a bounce into the end of the year.

Copper Futures Update

By request, refreshing the copper analysis. Copper has been falling in line with the forecast from late last year. I think this is probably the first move down in wave [b] or [ii].

E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures

The upward form up from 2016 and 2009 in NQ should nearly be complete. The question now is if the impulse up from the consolidation early this year is complete. I'd say the minimum requirements are now met at the last high in late July. Following is the weekly chart. I will add two different daily charts later that address two possibilities, a simple impulse up and an ending diagonal. When I add the daily charts, I'll add a note to the top of the post to notify you.

Yen Futures Update

I have reworked my EW count in the Yen to be that of a triangle wave [iv] that needs one more wave up in (e) to complete. The alternate is that wave [iv] was set early this year and prices are set to bounce in wave (ii) of an ending diagonal [v].

The Week Ahead 2018-07-29

This week is busy on the scheduled economic news front with emphasis on the FOMC on Wednesday afternoon and the NFP Friday morning.

iShares 20+ Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

TLT has been trading in a tight range for the last several months, making short stabs at breaking lower but finding support at tests of prior swing lows. I lean to support failing over the next several months and pushing for a rough support area of 112.00 to 110.

Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Update

The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is very late in the advance from the 2016 and likely the 2009 low as well. It is aggressive to sell to short but certainly makes sense to lock in profits especially if you went long or added in the consolidation earlier this year.

The Week Ahead 2018-07-22

If bonds are down in a third wave lower, bond prices should be heavy into the end of the year and take a shot at a new low for the year. If the alternate is in force, prices will stabilize above the low of the year and bounce into wave (ii) resistance again late in the year. Put another way, the question at hand is if the dominant cycle inverts and results in lower prices at the end of the year or if the polarity stays intact and drags bond prices up after a short term, several weeks to a couple month, pullback. I lean toward the former over the latter. We will see what it looks like in late September or October.

The Week Ahead 2018-07-15

For the last couple weeks I have been looking for a reversal lower in bonds but I am begging to wonder if they hold or even rise a bit more into the next FOMC meeting which is August 1st. My preferred scenario is one where the dominant cycle inverts and leads to a move lower into the end of the year.

The Week Ahead 2018-07-08

Weekly bonds tested the 146^27 resistance level last week while the weekly dominant cycle is signaling a possible inflection and the adaptive CCI is about to have a zero line test. All the above suggest that the move up from May is in danger of ending soon and resuming the trend lower. The alternate is that this bounce is only the first wave up in (ii) and will become more complex later in the year retesting resistance after moving down for a month or two.