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Daily updates

The typical “Day Ahead” post includes charts and commentary for the S&P 500 Index (SPX), 30-year U.S. treasury bond futures, gold futures, Euro futures, crude oil futures, and the U.S. Dollar Index.

The Day Ahead 2017-11-17

They decided to not only fill the first overhead gap but the second as well yesterday in the S&P 500. Today should be confined to a 10 point range between 2580 and 2590 SPX. The lower zone was tested in futures early this morning complicating the early morning trade somewhat as I don't know if it will be tested in the day session to get a cash print or just drift up from the cash open a few points higher.

The Day Ahead 2017-11-16

The S&P 500 was tricky yesterday, pushing toward the expected target zone quickly in the morning then testing 2570 SPX. Expecting a modest push over 2570 SPX today in an attempt to close the first overhead gap.

The Day Ahead 2017-11-15

The S&P 500 will likely start the day with a gap down and an open near 2570 SPX. Ideal to see a push lower from that area down toward 2562 or 2558 SPX. I certainly wouldn't mind to see lower in the...

The Day Ahead 2017-11-14

The S&P 500 indeed find an early morning low yesterday as expected but instead of only bouncing a few points and being trapped for the day, it pushed up to test the November 9th high. It still has the look to a lower high in the making and thus have a bias to lower. However, if 2578 SPX holds as support, a rally to attempt to fill the overhead gap is possible. Ideal in my view is that 2578 SPX is tested but only results in a shallow bounce.

The Day Ahead 2017-11-13

The big picture in the US equity indices is that they can use a rest and form a consolidation pattern into early next year. Anything in the range of 100 to 200 S&P 500 points would not do serious damage to the trend up from early 2016.

The Day Ahead 2017-11-10

Nice follow-through lower yesterday in the morning to the expected target for the day but had a pretty steady recovery from the low into the end of the day which certainly complicates things. It would have made things easier for bears if they closed under 2580 SPX. That said, I am still going to treat this as a retest of the 2580-2588 zone that was lost yesterday. I think they are setting the market up for more decline next week.

The Day Ahead 2017-11-09

The S&P 500 did make an attempt to push up to test 2600 yesterday but fell just short of a new high. The S&P 500 futures did go on to make a new high over that of Tuesday early last night and have been under selling pressure since. I'm not interested in buying the pullback at this point. There may be a bounce today but favor selling retraces. If the close today is under 2580 SPX, we may finally have a more substantive retrace starting.

The Day Ahead 2017-11-08

The outlook for today is much the same as yesterday in the S&P 500. The market is being drawn toward the round number of 2600 but any misstep now that takes SPX under the previous target zone of 2580-2588 will mark possible reversal that can take the market at least 60-90 points lower. Short term, as much as I dislike it, I have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt and let them try again for 2600.

The Day Ahead 2017-11-07

The S&P 500 seems to be determined to test the next round number at 2600. If that is their intention, a modest correction that holds above 2582 keeps the up trend intact and allows the market a brief rest to gain energy for a push to the round number.

The Day Ahead 2017-11-06

Now that the 2580's have been probed by the S&P 500, do they hold on in an attempt to test the round number at 2600? It is a possibility though in my view not required.

The Day Ahead 2017-11-03

The big picture idea in the equity indexes is the same as it has been for several weeks, that a modest sized correction is due.

The Day Ahead 2017-11-02

The S&P 500 pushed to a new high yesterday and fell away from it into the FOMC meeting. Is that enough? Is the swing high set? Maybe. I favor treating it as the high has been set though I can come up with a way to interpret the form from the October 30th low needing one last high. If the high has been set we should be looking at a 60-90 point correction over then next several weeks.

The Day Ahead 2017-11-01

Today we learn what the FOMC has to say about rate hikes and their balance sheet. I doubt they raise this meeting but all they need to do is make it sound like a hike at the December meeting is a lock to have the equity markets catch a cold.

The Day Ahead 2017-10-31

Last day of October and a day before we find out what the FOMC decides at the meeting that starts today. The general theme has been that the equity market holds up into tomorrow and is on track so far.

The Day Ahead 2017-10-30

The US equity market is probably in a holding pattern till the FOMC statement on Wednesday. S&P 500 futures are down overnight but that is in line with the small scale consolidation that we talked about in chat on Friday. Net, expect to see sideways motion today that might again push into the low 2580's SPX.

The Day Ahead 2017-10-27

The S&P 500 still behaves as if it has a date with 2580 or just above next week. A failure just under the present high would be ok, but think they will make it.

The Day Ahead 2017-10-26

With Euro, looking lower to either finish a fourth wave or it turns into the first impulse down from the high.

The Day Ahead 2017-10-25

Any small bounce or consolidation in bonds should be a selling opportunity. I believe we are seeing the market confirm that there will be a rate hike in December.

The Day Ahead 2017-10-24

So far, so good with the Dollar. It should aim for the 94.93 to 95.31 zone which is the next critical point for this advance. If they push through that zone we can say that the wave (iv) low has been set and expect at run up to at least the last high in the next year or two.

The Day Ahead 2017-10-23

If DX and Euro stay on course, no reason to believe gold will not push under the current October low.

The Day Ahead 2017-10-19

Yesterday I mentioned the possibility of gold forming a more complex wave 'ii' and it is still a concern though still suggest a bias lower on any bounce.

The Day Ahead 2017-10-18

More of the same that has taken place over the last two weeks. The S&P 500 flirts with a new high and falls back to test intraday support and spends the rest of the day attempting to recover....

The Day Ahead 2017-10-17

In response to a question in chat yesterday afternoon, I have marked on the S&P 500 chart projections from the last two major corrections, one that ran from late March into mid May, and from...

The Day Ahead 2017-10-16

2555 SPX has been difficult resistance for the market to overcome as there have only been brief pokes over in about two weeks. In general I see closes under 2555 as negative but the market has yet to fall away from this zone. Thus, have to allow for the next resist at 2559 to be tested. Net, same outlook as much of last week, I see this as an intermediate topping formation in development.

The Day Ahead 2017-10-13

Yesterday the S&P 500 refused to breakout higher or lower. As I type, S&P 500 futures are up against the series of highs from the last few days. Have to assume that there is a break higher of at least a few points.

The Day Ahead 2017-10-12

The equity market was nonplused over the FOMC minutes yesterday as the S&P 500 eeked out a new high. Still think the 2555 to 2559 SPX area should be formidable resistance.

The Day Ahead 2017-10-11 part 2

Now onto the currencies. DX is retracing lower, starting to come into contact with the top of a support zone. Expecting an eventual test of 95.31 but can not rule out a slightly more complicated retrace first.

The Day Ahead 2017-10-11 part 1

Markets will be fixated on reading the tea leaves from the FOMC later today at 14:00. Until then, expecting a listless trading environment. I am splitting this into two parts today as I am behind this morning and I don't want you to wait. Gold, bonds, DX, and Euro in part two by 9:45.

Other posts

iPath Dow Jones-UBS Copper ETN (JJC)

I went ahead and did the copper analysis for the respective ETN. I've added some additional chart geometry and the Wave 59 9-5 study to the monthly chart but otherwise the story is the same as for copper futures.

Copper futures 2017-11-05

Up until the middle of next last month, I had been treating the rise in copper as a deep wave four but I am promoting the alternate to primary, an initial impulse up from the early 2016 low. That does not mean that I changed my mind about this advance ending, but that I have thrown in the towel on expecting a new low on a turn lower.

Gold futures 2017-10-31

I have been putting off a bigger picture gold post as I have been reevaluating the big picture EW counts. Let me start with the two scenarios I had been using and move on from there.

US 30 Year Bond futures 2017-10-22

The bond charts look favorable for a move lower into next year. The alternate is that the wave (ii) is not yet finished though it is becoming a more distant possibility.

Natural Gas via (UNG) 2017-10-14

The outlook for UNG has not changed over the last few months. It has failed to rally much but then hasn't fallen either. Still favor a bounce that can test the highs from last year.

iShares 20+ Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) 2017-10-01

As you would expect, the analysis here is very similar to that done on bond futures earlier. This looks like a wave (ii) bounce though it is too early to rule out another test of overhead resistance.

US 30 Year Bond futures 2017-09-30

The major theme in bonds for the last six months has been that we are in a wave (ii) bounce after the first major impulse down from the 2016 high. A break of the low of last month should be the first major confirmation that bonds are ready to turn down.

Russell 2000 via (IWM) update

The theme from when I posted these remains the same from about a week ago. I just added the next steps up in the charts to keep an I on.

Russell 2000 ETF IWM 2017-09-24

The Russell 2000 is in a similar position as most of the other major indices. Probably in wave (iii) of [v] up from the 2009 low. This implies one more down/up move before any serious correction sets in.

Wheat, Corn and the ETN JJG

To my eye, grains are in an ending diagonal or wedge in the latter stages of its development. Let us start with the ETN JJG which I think has the same ending diagonal form as wheat and corn but where a wedge is easier to see.

Natural Gas (via UNG) 2017-08-28

Updated weekly chart but very little change from the earlier post here which you should read as a reminder of the possibilities. The most noteworthy difference is that the cycle detection is focusing on a shorter cycle which has the ideal low at the end of September.

Consumer Discetionary ETF (XLY) 2017-08-26

I know that I just posted these last week but made slight changes to the targets on the weekly chart and think that the broader market is on the same path, closing in on a summer low.

Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) 2017-08-19

XLY is on plan correcting as expected. Can use a little lower over the next week or three to test ♦♦.♦♦ to ♦♦.♦♦ after which we see if they can muster enough energy to push to a new high, the main scenario, or if any bounce sets a lower high, the alternate.

Copper futures 2017-08-12

I just can't get excited about this move up in copper as being the start of a major break higher. Instead, I still see this as the calm before the storm. Primary count is this being a wave (iv). I've marked the zone of overlap where wave (iv) would be invalidated. I can tolerate a brief spike into that zone but not a close.

Euro futures and ETF 2017-08-07

This is a post to consolidate the various Euro oriented charts that I have been working on over the last week or so. The main hypothesis is that this is a wave (iv) that is nearly complete. In this...

British Pound futures & ETF 2017-07-22

GPB has fallen from what I am calling a 'B' wave high in 2014 to a low early this year and been bouncing in a overlapping move to the present. Since the assumption that this drop is a 'C' wave, it...

Natural Gas via (UNG) 2017-07-10

The dominant weekly cycle in UNG is bottoming out now and starts to turn up into early 2018 making it interesting to see if a higher low or test of the previous 2016 low takes place over then next...

United States Oil Fund (USO) 2017-07-04

Since I have started to think that the low in crude is in, I thought I would update the charts for likely the most popular ETF for crude, USO. The monthly chart has a fork placed in a similar way to...

Crude Oil futures 2017-07-03

I had been expecting a new low from the bounce high in crude from late last year to develop this year. I had been treating that high as a wave four in an ending diagonal which calls for two motive...

Euro futures and Euro ETF 2017-07

The Euro moved up over first resist and now up against a deep retrace value and near a trend line. I am working with an ending diagonal for form. Depending on where wave (iv) ended gives solutions...

US Treasury 30 year yield (TYX) 2017-07-01

Over the last two weeks the yield made a brief poke under the .382 retrace of the advance from a year ago and recovered it this week. I continue to think yields rise though it does have to break...

Copper futures 2017-06-24

I'm skeptical that copper has found a lasting low but has yet to drop impulsively from resistance tested earlier this year. Prices have fallen from the channel and other resistance from February but...

Natural Gas via (UNG) 2017-06-18

In general, have been thinking that natural gas has been feeling its way to a higher low to that of 2016 and still think that is the case. The alternate count is that the late 2016 high was yet...

Euro futures and ETF 2017-06-17

Since the Dollar index is at an interesting juncture, it makes sense that the Euro would be as well. There is no change to the theme from the last time I posted the Euro charts, just minor changes...

US Treasury 30 year yield (TYX) 2017-06-11

Since we have the FOMC later this week, this seems an appropriate time to post these charts. Net, they are sitting on support and have a shot at testing 29.93 quickly with more after that. If they...

Dollar Index 2017-06-11

The dollar has been dropping from the start of this year. Does that mark the dollar high? I think not but do think that the advance is slowing and therefore not expecting dramatic gains. The main...

Euro futures 2017-06-08

Just as I am skeptical that the US dollar has made the high, I think the Euro is near resistance that can take it back down. The Euro is near a .618 retrace of the last swing now along with other...

Crude Oil 2017-05-29

Crude has been stuck in a range for just over a year. I'm skeptical that the crude low has been set but in the bigger picture we should be in the endgame now. Any new low into the end of this year...

Copper futures 2017-05-29

The copper bounce up from early 2016 has stalled out at the top of a channel and leaking lower for the past few months. I am working under the assumption that February 2017 is the end of a...

US 30 Year Bond futures 2017-05-28

In the bigger picture, we have been expecting a net bounce in bonds since the end of last year into late spring or early summer to which the market has obliged with a choppy bounce thus far. Now we...

US 30 Year Bond futures 2017-05-22

Bonds stalling against 154^07 which is certainly promising but need 152^29 to fail before becoming too excited. You must be logged in as a Daily Analysis or Intraday Analysis subscriber to view the...

Natural gas via (UNG) 2017-05-19

When I last posted on UNG, we were looking for lower into the daily cycle low and a weekly inflection. Prices have consolidated since then but have failed to pullback much. This behavior can be...

Dollar Index 2017-05-17

The Dollar has been dropping but think it is too soon to declare the dollar rally up from the 2016 low to be over. Until the dollar is under 96.50, it is premature to think the rally up from the...

Wheat futures 2017-05-15

I've had a request to look at grains and have been dragging my feet about it because I don't have a strong opinion on the EW structure. Short term looks weaker but perhaps not much so and worth...

Copper futures 2017-05-14

The 2016 bounce in copper ran into resistance from various channeling techniques early this year and has been drifting lower since. I remain skeptical that a significant low has be set in copper,...

Yen futures and ETF (FXY) 2017-04-27

The yen has been moving up the first part of this year as expected but should be nearing an inflection either in May or June. The ideal cycle high is in June but we need to be alert for a high...

British Pound futures and ETF (FXB) 2017-04-24

I think an inflection in the major dollar cross rates is sneaking up on us either this next month or in June. Note: FXB weekly chart added Late last year and early this year we have been looking for...

US 30yr bond futures daily 2017-04-17

I have the same reservations in here in bonds that I have in gold. While a little higher would be ideal, it is smart to begin taking action if one has been nursing long positions to lock in profits....

Gold futures 2017-04-17

The form would be improved with a consolidation and another push higher but anyone nursing a long gold position should be managing their position. I'm starting to get worried about gold now as this...

Dollar Index 2017-04-17

The dollar is continuing lower in the short term as expected. The reaction to the next support zone should help clarify which of the short term patterns is active. If 99.84 to 99.48 holds, it argues...

Crude Oil 2017-04-17

Crude will be rolling into June tomorrow thus advance my chart to the June contract. The dominant daily cycle should be peaking over the next few days which along with the contract roll may be...

Dow intraday update

I include an intraday chart of one of the equity indices, usually SPX, in the morning day ahead post but am putting it here as a separate post as the best way to bring it to your attention. I had...

Dollar Index 2017-04-17

The dollar advance is certainly losing momentum but should rise into the end of the year. The question is how will that advance form and is still an open question. Either we just finished a wave iv...

Natural Gas via UNG 2017-04-07

When I last visited UNG, I was looking for a low and a turn up with the daily cycle. This has played out and should now look for a retrace lower over the course of several weeks. The monthly cycle...

Crude Oil 2017-03-26

Crude has spent this month falling away from geometric resist and may leak lower yet over the next week or two but is running out of time for this segment of the down leg. A poke under the November...

Dollar Index and Dollar ETF (UUP) 2017-03-18

The dollar certainly can use a rest but think it unlikely the rise from 2016 is complete. There are two forms a consolidation can take, one being a triangle keeping the dollar in a relatively tight...

Crude Oil 2017-03-12

Crude is finally falling away from channel geometry. The path to a new low should not be expected to be a straight line, this is a good start. The ideal cycle low is the week of March 24th which...

Yen futures and ETF (FXY) 2017-03-05

Yen had followed the expected path lower late last year. It now appears to be trying to work up the low late last year following an upswing in the dominant monthly cycle which should take the yen...

Natural Gas via (UNG) 2017-02-28

I have thought that UNG has needed to trade lower but have been watching for a possible low to form late February or early March. A case can be made for the ultimate low to be in April but not...

US 30 Year Bond futures 2017-02-26

I had thought bonds might be an easy set of charts to start some weekend posting with but as I looked over the charts and sat back in my chair for some time, I have decided that it will be best to...