While certainly nervous about looking higher short term in the equity indices, I think S&P tries to poke above the high of last Friday by a few points. Perhaps the market makes that push today and pauses ahead of the FOMC minutes tomorrow afternoon.
Crude may be starting a small corrective glue wave before pushing lower to tap the broken trend line. Typical retracements are 50.50 and 51.42 but a modest new high would still be an acceptable ‘b’ wave.
A small correction lower is certainly possible but think the DX has a date with 95.31 which is the next critical point where the decision will be made to either cause the big picture bears to capitulate or push down for a modest new low.
Euro may bounce a bit but should attempt to drive lower to test 1.1588. Prefer a negative bias even though there is still a possibility to get a new high. There is also a possibility that the rise is complete and thus not comfortable calling for a new high.
Gold is pushing up past the initial resist of 1288.90 increasing the odds that the initial impulse down is complete. Should allow the bounce to extend at least a little more before looking for the next move lower.
Given the look of the bond chart, I imagine the FOMC minutes are interpreted as dovish tomorrow. Bonds can bounce form a corrective formation up that lasts a week or two.
