Bonds had a big day today rising up and surpassing both intraday and daily initial targets. Still think they pause and consolidate from near here, perhaps just above at the moving averages, now at 172^11, or a minor Gann related resist at 173^07.
Crude fell through the more typical supports for a wave [IV] today thus elevating the odds of the alternate, that CL is moving down from a lower high in [B]. The wave [IV] hypothesis is not down and out as long a 39.48 holds as support. Under 39.48 invites a retest of the November 2nd low.
Little change in DX today as it held just under the 93.12 resist. I still think it would look better with another drop down but If above 93.36, will have to seriously consider that this recent low was a truncation and now up in the early stages of [I] of iii up.
Euro also had an uneventful day. Still think it would look better with a retest of the early September high before rolling lower. Would be short term bulls need 1.1738 to hold as support.
As I’ve mentioned before, I’m not confident that I’m dialed into the short term pattern in gold. Bigger picture, I think there is a good chance that the [b] wave high was set in early August. Everything after the August high is a bit opaque to me. I see a bunch of three wave moves leading up to the recent November high. Was that ii? Gold certainly did press hard down from there but I wouldn’t be shocked to eventually see more of a retrace of that move.
SPX started out on plan this morning moving higher early in the morning but couldn’t overcome intraday resist just under the prior daily high which triggered a cascade lower to retest support near the low from November 10th. Overall bias remains up while above 3491.