Another good day in bonds which is consistent with the idea of a [B] wave low being set. Now bulls need to hold 168^31 and attack 170^06. I suspect the real pause is between 170^06 and 171^21 when the daily moving averages catch down prices, maybe around 170^30.
Did crude finally set the high early this morning? Maybe. As much as I want to say it is done, I think it best to look for a bit more confirmation like dropping under old resist of 52.63. Even if the high is set I wouldn’t be shocked to see a bounce and lower high around 53.45. In general, think CL and SPX time their respective highs near each other, and because SPX is acting like it will make a new high, I don’t want to jump the gun in CL.
DX started the day lower but rallied before testing 89.81. Does that mean the wave (II) is set and new rising in (III)? Too early to say. The low today was between the .382 and .618 retrace values. That could qualify but a little unusual. I’m a bit concerned that it might be a tiny fourth in the first impulse up. Bulls need over 90.87 for initial confirmation that the next wave up is taking place.
I’ve sketched out in more detail something that I alluded to in the DX post above in the Euro chart below. This little consolidation that has taken place over the last two days could be just a IV in the developing (I). I favor this interpretation over the other option which treats this as a wave (II) retrace and now in the early stages of wave (III). If Euro makes a new swing low but holds 1.2124 or 1.2106, that likely makes this little move V of (I). Under 1.2106 means argues that wave (III) is in progress which targets 1.2021 at a minimum.
Gold is trying to push down away from minor resist at 1860.40. I’m treating the little consolidation as a small wave four and trying to push down in five to complete the first impulse down from the January 6th high. Any new swing low is acceptable but aiming for 1804.60 or 1788.50.
S&P 500 played out more or less to plan today. There was a quick drop in the morning to shake off bulls but was quickly recovered and went on to make a new high over that of yesterday. I’m still looking for a new high over that of last Friday tomorrow or the next day at which point we see what kind of retrace can get started.
