The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2020-02-20

Bonds did make a new high over that of February 3rd today but I think it best to allow it to attempt to reach 165^21. What would the alternate be if bonds are not rising in a ‘b’ wave? Well, I would put the (b) at the low of in January of this year and say this is up in (c) of the large ending diagonal. The only problem I have had with that type of count is that wave (b) looks a little shallow on a weekly or monthly chart but the form would work. I’ll have more to say on this when I publish the weekly charts on Sunday.

First Look: 2020-02-20

Think it is fair to shop for a lower high today after a bounce from near 3376. Initial resist at 3381 with more at 3389 and 3389. If it does set a lower high, aim for 3360 or 3351.

Japanese Yen Futures & ETF FXY Update

Yen appears to be accelerating lower after the minimal retrace made when I last updated this chart a few weeks ago. I’m assuming this is the early stages of (iii) of [v] or [c] down. Minor support being tested now at 0.008994 though I don’t think it will be very firm. Prefer lower targets at 0.008789 or 0.008643 before a more substantial bounce.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2020-02-19

I know that I changed the main count in bonds over to one that calls for a test or new high to that of February third but the form so far looks pretty corrective post February 6th. I suppose it might turn into a tiny ending diagonal to reach up into 164^12 but if it drops under the daily moving averages at some point before a new high, I’ll switch back to wave ‘b” being set and work on getting a five count down into May or June.