Consider a “base hits” trading approach now
The upward form up from 2016 and 2009 in NQ should nearly be complete. The question now is if the impulse up from the consolidation early this year is complete. I’d say the minimum requirements are now met at the last high in late July. Following is the weekly chart. I will add two different daily charts later that address two possibilities, a simple impulse up and an ending diagonal. When I add the daily charts, I’ll add a note to the top of the post to notify you.
The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is very late in the advance from the 2016 and likely the 2009 low as well. It is aggressive to sell to short but certainly makes sense to lock in profits especially if you went long or added in the consolidation earlier this year.
But the larger rally is nearly complete
IWM is rising as expected. Here are some target zones where the move might end.
I know you have had to endure my cautious optimism over the past three months where I have focused on finding lows versus pounding the table to sell on highs but it has borne fruit in Russell 2000 and its corresponding ETF IWM which has pushed to a new high over that of January this year. While I expect it to attempt to reach higher into at least next month if not into August, it is wise to begin to lock in some profit by some combination of raising stops or taking partial profits on this new high. Next harmonic of the wide base channel is at 166.00.
4th wave correction nearly complete
An overall bullish expectation with some targets to watch
Quite a week in the equity indices last week. Is the end upon us? As you know, my view is no, that we have been expecting a wave (iii) high in the advance up from early 2016 and now should be forming a several month corrective pattern for wave (iv) before an eventual top that should end both the advance from 2016 but also the rise form the 2009 low.
Here’s a quick reference for Bradley siderograph inflection dates and gaps up in the Dow and SPX