Japanese Yen Futures and ETF Update 2019-09-14

As you know, I have been critical of the rise in the Yen over the last month and continued to think it a developing wave [iv] or [b] triangle. Over the last three weeks that has been a strong reaction against resist at 0.009623. Certainly appears that prices are moving down in the early stages of [v] or [c] down out of the triangle. Supports on this chart are Gann based and while I think prices will react to them, it is very speculative at this point estimating where the turns will be in the five wave sequence. It is worth noting that the 'c of (e) of [iv] or [b]' terminated on a cycle inflection which implies a drop to the next in March of next year at a minimum and perhaps out to the following inflection next August.

Natural Gas via UNG Update

I have been looking for a possible wave (v) low in UNG for the last couple months and it looks like we may have one that sticks. It has spent the last few weeks up from a test, and brief poke under, support at 18.10. Goal now is to establish a five wave move up for an initial impulse up. Resist at 21.81 and 22.89 on the weekly chart. I'm working on the premise that the dominant weekly cycle is inverting and thus for a net rise into the end of the year.

Yen Futures and ETF (FXY) Update – 2019-08-07

Yen has rallied up with gold but I still think the overall Elliott triangle is still valid. It looks like the dominant weekly cycle will be invert and be a high. The ideal cycle infection point is September 13 but we are already in the window. First step for a reversal would be falling under prior resist at 0.009386.

Newsletter: Natural Gas ETF might be a long-term buy

This week we want to alert our newsletter readers to what might be a very durable low in the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG). You are among the first people to see the chart. There are several...

Natural Gas via UNG Update

As you know, I've been watching UNG for a possible significant cycle low nearby and expecting a rise into early next year. While prices have slipped a little lower, that is consistent with the main forecast on the daily chart from the last update. UNG is now near weekly and daily supports and is worth monitoring closely.

Natural Gas via ETF (UNG) Update

Making a UNG update since I spent time staring at the daily. First, the weekly chart. Nothing new from when I last posted it. I think UNG is trying to feel out for a low in the 62 week cycle. Price needs to be over 21.65 to cause bears to cover.

iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI) Update

At the start of 2018, EWI ended wave [e] of a triangle and dropped in the first five wave impulse lower at the end of last year. Since then, EWI has been bouncing in a three wave move for a wave (ii). While having tested a possible target at 28.83 two weeks ago, it strikes me as too aggressive to say that wave 'c of (ii)' is complete while above 30.00 as the overhead target tested so far is a bit short of what is typical for a wave (ii).

Japanese Yen and ETF (FXY) 2019-07-09

One of the reasons that I have been skeptical about the gold rise is the correlation that it has had with the Japanese yen and I'm still bearish yen as the triangle is still valid here.

Natural Gas via (UNG) – 2019-06-02

When I last wrote on UNG, I was looking for a possible truncated wave (v) low in conjunction with a projected cycle low for the year. Prices did in fact climb but was rejected by initial resist at 23.31. Despite that, the overall forecast for a possible low for the year in development is the same.

Natural Gas via UNG 2019-05-13

The weekly cycle in UNG has lengthened and is now forecasting a low over the next several weeks and rises toward the end of the year. The daily chart has a five wave count down from the wave iv bounce high in March. Prices rising over 23.31 is first confirmation that the low may be set though it is conceivable that the turn up is slow like in mid 2018.

Natural Gas via UNG 2019-03-10

Back when I last updated UNG charts, I thought a bounce was due and in fact one has taken place. The question now is, was the low in February the end of the pattern down from the November high from last year or is there one more low left? I favor the latter because fourth waves typically have a complex wave form and we have yet to a new low or test of the 2017 low. For timing, thinking the best time for a low is late March or early April, even it turns out to be a higher low.

Yen Futures & Yen ETF FXY 2019-03-03

When I last posted charts on Japanese Yen, I was looking for a bounce up from a possible (d) wave low of a triangle [iv]. It looks like the last wave of that triangle, wave (e), completed at the start of this year. Cycles suggest wave [v] down is in progress and could last till August of this year

iShares 20+ Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

TLT has been trading in a tight range for the last several months, making short stabs at breaking lower but finding support at tests of prior swing lows. I lean to support failing over the next several months and pushing for a rough support area of 112.00 to 110.

Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Update

The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is very late in the advance from the 2016 and likely the 2009 low as well. It is aggressive to sell to short but certainly makes sense to lock in profits especially if you went long or added in the consolidation earlier this year.

iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ)

By request, here is a look at the ETF that covers Brazilian equity. Looking at the weekly chart below, you will see that I am calling the move from the 2008 high to the early 2016 low a completed three wave corrective structure. Up from the 2016 low, I think you can call that an impulse up for [i] or [a]. The current swing down this year should only be the first move down in a three wave formation for [ii] or [b]. Prices have bounced from a Gann related support at 31.37 though I favor a test of that low or a new low before the impulse is complete. The idea of a new low in (a) is alive as long a the bounce stays under Fib resists at 35.16 and 37.62.