Natural Gas via UNG 2019-03-10

Back when I last updated UNG charts, I thought a bounce was due and in fact one has taken place. The question now is, was the low in February the end of the pattern down from the November high from last year or is there one more low left? I favor the latter because fourth waves typically have a complex wave form and we have yet to a new low or test of the 2017 low. For timing, thinking the best time for a low is late March or early April, even it turns out to be a higher low.

Yen Futures & Yen ETF FXY 2019-03-03

When I last posted charts on Japanese Yen, I was looking for a bounce up from a possible (d) wave low of a triangle [iv]. It looks like the last wave of that triangle, wave (e), completed at the start of this year. Cycles suggest wave [v] down is in progress and could last till August of this year

Copper forecast – special extended version

This post is exclusively for readers of our emailed newsletter. It features an updated version of the weekly timeframe analysis of copper futures that we posted for the general public on February...

iShares 20+ Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

TLT has been trading in a tight range for the last several months, making short stabs at breaking lower but finding support at tests of prior swing lows. I lean to support failing over the next several months and pushing for a rough support area of 112.00 to 110.

Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Update

The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is very late in the advance from the 2016 and likely the 2009 low as well. It is aggressive to sell to short but certainly makes sense to lock in profits especially if you went long or added in the consolidation earlier this year.

iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ)

By request, here is a look at the ETF that covers Brazilian equity. Looking at the weekly chart below, you will see that I am calling the move from the 2008 high to the early 2016 low a completed three wave corrective structure. Up from the 2016 low, I think you can call that an impulse up for [i] or [a]. The current swing down this year should only be the first move down in a three wave formation for [ii] or [b]. Prices have bounced from a Gann related support at 31.37 though I favor a test of that low or a new low before the impulse is complete. The idea of a new low in (a) is alive as long a the bounce stays under Fib resists at 35.16 and 37.62.

British Pound Futures and ETF Update

Primary view is that GBP futures are in the first stages of a move that should test or exceed the 2017 low. A monthly chart for perspective is below.

MSCI Italy ETF EWI Update

Since Italy has been in the news lately by finally getting a coalition government formed, I thought it a good time to peek at the ETF covering the Italian equity market. As last time I updated this, it still looks like a decade long triangle either finished or nearly so.

Russell 2000 via ETF IWM Update

I know you have had to endure my cautious optimism over the past three months where I have focused on finding lows versus pounding the table to sell on highs but it has borne fruit in Russell 2000 and its corresponding ETF IWM which has pushed to a new high over that of January this year. While I expect it to attempt to reach higher into at least next month if not into August, it is wise to begin to lock in some profit by some combination of raising stops or taking partial profits on this new high. Next harmonic of the wide base channel is at 166.00.

Crude Oil and ETF USO Update

I was working on the ETF that tracks crude oil, (USO), and have decided to promote what I had as an alternate count in crude to the primary, that there is one more high needed to complete a five wave sequence up from the low from last year.

iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI) update

Since there are elections coming up this weekend in Italy, thought it would be a good time to update the big picture charts for this ETF. I have interest in it as it has formed a classic triangle from the 2009 low and may have completed at the start of this year. I also think it can turn into a canary in the mine, a harbinger for the future.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM) Update

As a continuation of the post yesterday taking a look at the big picture, here is much the same but using the ETF for the Russell 2000 (IWM). The idea expressed here is the same, that we are now in wave (iv) of [v] up from the 2009 low. Expect at least a few months of mostly sideways price action before a push to a new high.

Updates for US Dollar ETF UUP

With the USD weakness that we have being seeing over the past few weeks, it is a good time to update the monthly and weekly charts on both the main and alternate EW counts on a popular ETF for USD, (UUP).

Dollar ETF (UUP) Update

Since I just updated the DX monthly and weekly charts, thought I would plough ahead and update the ETF UUP as well. Same story, expect a wave (iv) has been set and looking for a new high over that of the early 2017 high in the next 18-24 months.

Natural Gas via UNG

UNG, the ETF that tracks natural gas, has elected to take the alternate path from when I last posted these charts by pushing to a new low under that of the 2016 low. The dominant cycle has shifted a...

Could Italian equities be the canary in the mine?

I find the iShares MSCI Italy ETF interesting for two reasons. One, so far, it is a textbook example of a triangle formation that has spanned nearly nine years. Two, if the triangle pattern holds and the Italian markets turn down, could that be a precursor to other European equity markets topping and even mark a turning point in the Euro? I don't know if the triangle pattern will hold or if it will be an early warning to other problems on the continent, but it does look like a trading opportunity is nearby.

iPath Dow Jones-UBS Copper ETN (JJC)

I went ahead and did the copper analysis for the respective ETN. I've added some additional chart geometry and the Wave 59 9-5 study to the monthly chart but otherwise the story is the same as for copper futures.