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Morning & evening updates

We chart the S&P 500, crude oil, the Euro, Dollar Index, treasury bonds, and gold, typically with a morning and evening post for every trading day.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-02-14

Bonds are forming a more complex corrective formation for wave 'b'. Today they rose early from 145^18 support to get stuck under prior highs but think bond prices will poke over those prior highs next week.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-02-13

Bonds crept a little lower to test 145^18 as expected. Now there may be an attempt to hug the daily moving averages before dropping under 145^18.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-02-12

The short term pattern in bonds but they did indeed drop today so as to contact the daily moving averages. Next step for bears is to press lower under 145^18.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-02-11

Bonds turned back down today staying under 147^02 suggesting 'b of (b)' might be complete. Need under 145^18 for initial confirmation of a reversal.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-02-07

The 'b' wave in bonds is becoming more complex. The fast cycle on the daily chart is cresting now suggesting 146^19 is the resist in play but just in case, the higher resists are at 147^02 and 147^21.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-02-06

Bonds started the day near resist at 146^08 and over the day dropped to 145^18 and the daily moving averages. I'd like to see lower of course but I imagine there will be a fight around here.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-02-05

Bonds more or less hugged the daily moving averages today which is consistent with the view of a small consolidation/bounce needs to form before heading lower.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-01-31

Once over 146^01, bonds sprinted to just under the next target zone for 'b' at 147^04. I would like to see 147^04 tested on Friday and attempt to begin a reversal lower.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-01-29

Bonds didn't do much today except explore the range of the last few days. The 'b' wave can eventually bounce higher but I'm assuming more sideways.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition

Thinking that bonds are stuck sideways to lower into the first full week of February when both the short and long cycles then turn up. Also can't expect much movement till after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-01-24

Bonds poked past 145^14 today which is hardly surprising and almost made it to next resistance at 146^01. That may be all of wave b at this point since the fast daily cycle is topping out now. Crude...

Weekly updates & other posts

(Public posts are included on this page too.)

The Week Ahead 2019-02-10

The 'b of (b)' in bonds is still developing as bonds were unable to break under the daily moving averages early last week. The overall plan is to get a choppy retrace from the high early in January to next month or early April before advancing again into July for a wave [ii].

Natural Gas via UNG Update

When I last posted a UNG chart about two weeks ago, my assumption was that a wave iv bounce was forming against 30.08. As it turns out, that resist was not challenged again and prices have continued to fall. That said, I think it might be jumping the gun to say that UNG is now down in 'v of (iv)' though that is the alternate. The primary I am running with is that this drop is '[B] of iv' and due soon for a move up in '[C] of iv'. Targets for iv are at 26.71 and 29.13. As for timing, beginning to mid April looks appealing for the 'v of (v)' low. Weekly and daily charts below.

The Week Ahead: 2019-02-03

A case can be made that bonds have completed 'b of (b)' and now ready to decline in 'c of (b)'.

The Week Ahead 2019-01-27

Bonds are about halfway in the development of a (b) wave down from the (a) wave high at the start of the year. I expect (b) to be a complex choppy formation. In the short term bonds can trade a little lower but overall thinking somewhat sideways into mid February.

The Week Ahead 2019-01-20

Monday is a US holiday thus will not post in the morning though will post daily charts in the late afternoon/early evening. Also had a request to follow natural gas again which I will do, posting on it once a month.

The Week Ahead 2019-01-13

The fast dominant cycle is at a crest in weekly bonds and prices have been attempting to reject 148^31 for the last two weeks. I can't say it is impossible to retest resist but provisionally calling wave (a) up complete. Next support is at 143^30. I think the next major timing in bonds will be in the summer around July or August so prefer to see several months of choppy movement lower followed by a summer rally to complete (c) of [ii].

The Week Ahead 2019-01-06

Bonds tested a Gann related resist this week at 148^31 when both weekly and daily cycles suggest a cycle high making it a candidate for the (a) high that I have been looking for. If wave (a) is in, the retrace in (b) should take the form of a choppy three wave move over the next few months.

The Week Ahead 2018-12-31

The ideal dominant cycle in bonds is topping out this week. I continue to see this as wave (a) of [ii] complete or nearly complete. Crude is in a tough spot here. Certainly it is deeply oversold and...

The Week Ahead: 2018-12-23

Monday has an early close and Tuesday is closed for the holiday. Imagine that volume is thin till the first full week in January as many take time off till then.

The Week Ahead 2018-12-17

The defining item this week will be the FOMC statement and press conference on Wednesday as traders look for clues of a halt to the rate hikes in 2019.

Bradley Siderograph – Late 2018 into 2019

The Bradley Siderograph is timing model for stock market turns that while no means perfect is worth keeping an eye on. Main interest is in the inflection points on the graph, not the direction or magnitude of change. An example of this is that the May 23rd 2018 swing in the Bradley was the biggest swing in the graph but was weak but the next tiny inflection at the end of June resulted in a major low in equity prices and big rally. Below you will see a chart with the Dow and Bradley model with dates of the next inflections out into fall of next year. Of note is then next two, December 20th and January 16th, of which I think December 20th is more important since it is a day after the next FOMC meeting.

The Week Ahead 2018-12-09

Possibly an exciting start to the week in equities this week as we find out if the major supports fail. Not looking good as I type as S&P 500 futures are down 20 points but I don't like to read too much into Asian session Globex. In addition to the US and China tensions we have the ECB on Thursday morning along with contract roll.

The Week Ahead 2018-12-02

I'm adding the daily charts to the usual weekly charts this week. Might turn into the new normal instead of a post of daily charts late Friday or Saturday. The main event for the start of the week is reaction to the favorable trade news from the G20. S&P futures are up 46 points as I type. More than I would have guessed but consistent with one of the options talked about in chat late Friday. Equity markets will be closed on Wednesday. NFP on Friday morning.

The Week Ahead 2018-11-26

Regardless whether the nearly two month consolidation in bonds is a wave [IV] or wave ii, I still think bonds should roll lower in December. Bond prices traded in a pretty narrow range last week against resist at 140^11. It is a near term negative for my bearish forecast that the weekly cycles point toward a late December inflection point.

The Week Ahead 2018-11-18

Bonds have been consolidating under prior lows stretching back to 2016 for over a month now. I still favor net lower into March of next year but acknowledge that daily and weekly cycles are working against each other which helps account for this stall. I'd rather prices not poke much above 139^26 but anyone searching for a short is better off waiting for some confirmation first as they may poke up briefly to run stops before resuming lower.

The Week Ahead 2018-11-11

Bonds continue to consolidate after having punched under the group of prior lows stretching back into late 2016. I score that as negative in the medium term for bond prices and thus favor lower till at least a new low is made under that of October 12th. At that point we will see if they wish to use the last five weeks of consolidation as a wave ii, as shown on the chart, or a small degree wave four which will then trigger a wave two bounce that again retests the break around 139^26. As far as timing is concerned, I think the next major point is either March or May of next year which leaves us in a conundrum as to whether we fall or rise into said area, or perhaps get some frequency doubling that that allow for more than one change in trend. I'm leaning lower since we are under the prior lows but won't be stubborn about it if they firm up on a new low in December.

Copper Futures and Copper Miners ETF Update

Starting with the copper monthly chart for perspective. Primary thesis is that a large corrective formation completed at the 2016 low and that the climb up to the late 2017 high was the first impulse up from that low. That implies a corrective move lower and my assertion is that copper completed the first move of that correction in the summer of this year and due for a consolidative bounce before dropping in the last leg of the larger correction. I have penciled in the next corrective low to coincide with a cycle low middle of next year at a higher low to that of the 2016 low though a new price extreme in [b] would not break the pattern.

The Week Ahead 2018-11-05

Pretty eventful week coming up with ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 10:00 on Monday, US midterm elections on Tuesday, and the FOMC November meeting statement on Thursday at 14:00. I think there may be some room for US equity markets to bounce a little more Monday morning but wouldn't be surprised if selling comes in later in the day and Tuesday on some election nervousness. Overall, thinking equity can head higher later in the week but that is probably getting to far ahead of the game as will have to see how they behave overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

The Week Ahead 2018-10-28

Bonds have bounced to retest the prior break lower. Below I have added both of the ideas I am working with. Both imply lower into at least December and I wouldn't be surprised if it extended into March. The difference between both ideas is how much bounce takes place once the next low is set. The first would only result in a weak sidewise move versus the second which would bounce higher, perhaps near the 150 handle.

S&P 500 Update

As I have been looking at this in the morning, I have talked myself into this possibility which would imply the low was set yesterday and now in a rally off that low. Selling resistance at 2794 or 2707 is fair, but be prepared to not get a new low on the day out of it.

The Week Ahead 2018-10-21

The scheduled economic news is heavily weighted toward the middle to the end of the week with US New home sales Wednesday, the ECB press conference Thursday morning along with US Durable goods orders, and US GDP on Friday.

The Week Ahead 2018-10-14

Before looking at bonds, here is a chart of the 30 year Treasury yield. Yield has broken above the long enduring channel. The next cycle inflection is March of next year which suggests this break has several more months to run.

The Week Ahead 2018-10-07

Bonds extended lower last week have breaking under a series of prior lower. I'd like to see support form from a little lower and bounce retest the break before continuing lower.

The Week Ahead 2018-10-01

The week will start of dominated by exuberance that the trade agreement with Canada and Mexico got ironed out. Plenty of economic data this week with the high point being the NFP on Friday. That means there is plenty of news that can be used to move the markets around. On to the charts.

The Week Ahead 2018-09-23

To summarize expectations over the next three to six months: Bonds accelerate lower into spring of next year, US equities in a topping phase starting now and lasting as late as early next year, Dollar Index stronger in the period, Euro weaker, and gold net lower but should have a correction sideways to higher in the period. Let us move into the weekly charts.

The Week Ahead 2018-09-17

I'm going to do this post a little differently than I have been in the past. I have been requested to formulate my thoughts on the big picture and what may take place over several time periods, three, six, nine months and more into the future. I won't address that fully in this post, but later when I think more on it and prepare some charts but will mention ideas for where things could be in the three to six month window.

The Week Ahead 2018-09-09

Bonds appear to be dropping from a completed wave (ii). We will have more confidence in that hypothesis once under 142^03.

The Week Ahead 2018-09-03

Hope you all are enjoying the last long weekend of the summer. This next week will see people getting settled in and back to work.

The Week Ahead 2018-08-26

The main count in bonds is the 1-2,1-2 type count where prices break lower from near here in wave (iii). Next week is the half way point from the cycle low to the next projected high, a good point to look to see if prices are going to use the cycle inflections in a low to low fashion.

Copper Update (Futures and a mining ETF)

I relatively recently updated the copper futures charts as requested by a subscriber. At that time, my view was that copper was moving down in the last leg of wave (a) down from the high from late last year. I now think that (a) may be complete and ready to embark on a few months of choppy retrace up. Below you will find monthly and weekly copper futures charts and also monthly and weekly charts of a copper mining ETF (COPX).