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Morning & evening updates

We chart the S&P 500, crude oil, the Euro, Dollar Index, treasury bonds, and gold, typically with a morning and evening post for every trading day.

S&P 500 Midday Update 2019-11-15

SPX rose as expected this morning but has pushed past 3114. Is that a big problem? I don't think so but you can also treat the last week or so as a fourth instead of an ending diagonal with this...

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-11-14

Bonds moved up to test the daily moving averages today before dropping back toward 158^00. Since I think the timing for a bond low is for around the end of the year or early next year, I posit that the form for 'c of (b)' is a developing '[I]-[II]-(I)-(II)' type count with this bounce as (II).

S&P 500 Midday Update 2019-11-14

SPX just tested the 3086 support level, a quick poke under and recovery, and is reclaiming 3091 and the moving averages. If the form on this chart is correct, a nano sized 'c of 5' up, it shouldn't...

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-11-13

Bonds pushed past initial resist at 157^10 to just short of 158^01. I'd like to see a press lower from nearby to at least a new swing low and ideally to 153^27.

S&P 500 Afternoon Update 2019-11-13

SPX held support at 3079 early this morning which held the door open for a possible small ending diagonal wave four at the low this morning at rising in wave five in the afternoon which may stretch...

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-11-12

Bonds spent another day largely trading sideways which is consistent with the idea of lower before a better bounce. Resist at 157^10 and 158^01.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-11-11

Bonds are forming a small consolidation under resists of 157^10 and 158^01 thus expect lower to at least 155^17 but probably lower to 153^27.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-11-07

Bonds fell lower today to just above the first of the supports for a wave [III] but I think it best to assume at least one step lower to 153^27 provided resist at 157^10 or 158^01 holds.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-11-06

Bonds bounced today but are being held back by resist at 158^25 and 159^07. I can imagine they spend another day or two consolidating before attempting to drop under 157^28.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-11-05

Bonds dropped again today to test first support at 157^28. I expect this support to fail but might get a small bounce to test 158^25 or 159^07 first.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-11-04

Bonds dropped fairly hard today making it likely that the wave [II] bounce has been set and now in the beginning of wave '[III] of c of (b)' down. First support at 157^28 but expect it to be soft and see lower targets of 155^17 or 153^27 to be tested.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-10-31

Bonds pressed up through the daily moving averages and thus I think in likely that we will now see a relatively deep wave [II] retract that test 162^18 or 163^15. Short term I think we can see a small glue wave form before testing the overhead resist.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-10-30

Bonds moved higher today as expected and have tested the initial resist range for a wave [II] at 159^29. I think it best to allow a few more days for [II] to develop which will allow prices to test either 160^27 or the daily moving averages.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-10-29

Weak bounce in bonds today which is not surprising considering the FOMC statement and press conference is tomorrow afternoon. Still looks like it could use a better bounce before dropping lower.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-10-28

I can't say that I am very confident that the wave [II] bounce is done and now in the early stages of [III] down. Bonds did drop today but I'm worried about it being a (V) to end wave [I]. Wave [II] retrace values at 159^29 and 160^27.

Weekly updates & other posts

(Public posts are included on this page too.)

The Week Ahead 2019-11-10

Bonds fell last week staying on plan for lower into the end of year or even out into March of next year. Bond prices are testing the top of the target range for 'c of (b)' at 156^01 but I'm not expecting much of a bounce from this level.

The Week Ahead: 2019-11-03

Theme in bonds remains lower into March of next year in a 'c of (b) of ending diagonal [v]'. Near term, think wave '[II] of c of (b)' is forming under 161^25 or 163^03 before pressing lower in '[III] of c of (b)'. Probably can use another week or two for [II] to ripen.

The Week Ahead 2019-10-27

Bonds are leaning on support at 159^18. I think it will eventually break under but may not be this week as we have the FOMC on Wednesday and the NFP number on Friday. I think the cycles argue for net lower into early next year at a minimum.

The Week Ahead 2019-10-20

Bonds are sitting on support that may cause a minor bounce but overall expecting lower into the next cycle inflection next February. An alternate count up from wave [IV] could be 'i-ii-[I]-[II]-[III]-[IV]-[V] for iii' and now forming 'iv' which implies a new high in February for 'v of (a)'. I'm not that keen on the alternate but something to keep an eye on if prices fail to drop under 159^18 after a small bounce.

British Pound futures and ETF FXB Update 2019-10-14

GBP has been on plan rising into wave (iv) targets this week. The futures have a little more room to develop if needed but the FXB chart is pretty close to the limit for a wave (iv). I have also added an alternate on the FXB chart where the drop from the wave [iv] high in 2018 is an ending diagonal where the recent low is wave (i) and is in either (ii) or 'a of (ii)' now.

The Week Ahead 2019-10-13

Bonds had a nice drop from the last chance resist at 165^11. Bears need bond prices to drop under 159^18 as confirmation that 'c of (b)' down is in development. My preference is for net lower prices into the cycle low in mid February next year.

The Week Ahead 2019-10-06

Bonds were pretty energetic last week putting stress on the idea of a lower high in 'b of (b)'. Prices are pretty much at the limit of a lower at a Gann related resistance at 165^11. Because of the strength this week, I'm starting to think a 'b' wave high is likely.

Natural Gas via UNG Update 2019-09-26

UNG has moved up to test the first weekly resist in what looks like an impulsive move and is now retracing. Will be watching 19.98 and 19.21 as possible wave ii support.

British Pound Futures Update 2019-09-26

Sterling is dropping from a typical wave (iv) resistance but I doubt wave (iv) is complete as fours are often the most complex patterns. It is conceivable that it runs sideways for months. An alternate would be this is a fourth of lower degree, 'iv', and the next low 'v of (iii)'.

The Week Ahead: 2019-09-22

Primary view in bonds is that they are bouncing in wave 'b of (b)' and the bounce last week is probably just the first part of that choppy move. The next major cycle inflection is in January next year which I suspect will be the 'c of (b)' low.

The Week Ahead 2019-09-15

Bonds had a nice drop this last week which conforms to the forecast for a wave (b) retrace. Since the FOMC announcement and press conference is on Wednesday afternoon, I suspect we are nearing the end of the first wave of wave (b) at 156^25 or 154^20. Difficult to forecast the end of wave (b), but should make it to at least 150^17. Probably depends on if they intend to only drop into the next cycle inflection in early November, or go for the next in January of next year. I favor the latter but we will see.

Japanese Yen Futures and ETF Update 2019-09-14

As you know, I have been critical of the rise in the Yen over the last month and continued to think it a developing wave [iv] or [b] triangle. Over the last three weeks that has been a strong reaction against resist at 0.009623. Certainly appears that prices are moving down in the early stages of [v] or [c] down out of the triangle. Supports on this chart are Gann based and while I think prices will react to them, it is very speculative at this point estimating where the turns will be in the five wave sequence. It is worth noting that the 'c of (e) of [iv] or [b]' terminated on a cycle inflection which implies a drop to the next in March of next year at a minimum and perhaps out to the following inflection next August.

The Week Ahead: 2019-09-08

Bonds are stalling just under resist at 167^07 but bears need to have price drop under 162^24 to rule out another stab at overhead targets. The indicators are somewhat mixed here as the cycles are pointing lower but the 9-5 study can accommodate another high. I can't be excited about higher but a little early to be seriously bearish.

Natural Gas via UNG Update

I have been looking for a possible wave (v) low in UNG for the last couple months and it looks like we may have one that sticks. It has spent the last few weeks up from a test, and brief poke under, support at 18.10. Goal now is to establish a five wave move up for an initial impulse up. Resist at 21.81 and 22.89 on the weekly chart. I'm working on the premise that the dominant weekly cycle is inverting and thus for a net rise into the end of the year.

The Week Ahead: 2019-09-02

I like the forming of a doji candle in bonds last week just under resist of 167^07. Both the Lomb Periodogram and dominant cycles suggest softness into October. First step for bears is to drop under 164^00 and even better when under 162^24.

The Week Ahead 2019-08-26

Bonds are testing the 167^03 to 167^27 resistance area again. I favor fading this test and looking forward to a drop to prior resistance at 164^05.

The Week Ahead 2019-08-18

Well, now that bonds moved past the prior high in 2016, what does it mean? It means that the ending diagonal is growing larger and that the move up from the October 2018 low should be comprised of three segments. On the scale of the ending diagonal, spanning ten years, we have yet to see an appropriate sized corrective move for the middle segment of [v], thus must see the current rise as the first segment, (a) of [v].

Newsletter: Yen reaching important resistance

This is a quick update for our newsletter readers, following up on our July 14 email about the Yen and related ETF. A rejection of the spring/summer rally appears likely, and we can now point to...

The Week Ahead 2019-08-11

Bonds have run up to just short of the 2016 but it is holding under it so far. I prefer a lower high to 165^04 but if it pokes to a new high, I will just call this the end of a larger diagonal. Ideally, prices use 162^30 as resistance and fall back to 159^04 or 156^01. Bears need bond prices under 156^01 to take a new high off the table.

Yen Futures and ETF (FXY) Update – 2019-08-07

Yen has rallied up with gold but I still think the overall Elliott triangle is still valid. It looks like the dominant weekly cycle will be invert and be a high. The ideal cycle infection point is September 13 but we are already in the window. First step for a reversal would be falling under prior resist at 0.009386.

The Week Ahead: 2019-08-04

The idea of a lower high in bonds is certainly under stress as bond prices are nearing the 7/8th retrace at 161^09 which is the practical last chance for a wave [ii]. 160^14 which is a fib extension is worth paying attention to early this week.

Newsletter: Natural Gas ETF might be a long-term buy

This week we want to alert our newsletter readers to what might be a very durable low in the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG). You are among the first people to see the chart. There are several...

Natural Gas via UNG Update

As you know, I've been watching UNG for a possible significant cycle low nearby and expecting a rise into early next year. While prices have slipped a little lower, that is consistent with the main forecast on the daily chart from the last update. UNG is now near weekly and daily supports and is worth monitoring closely.

The Week Ahead: 2019-07-28

Very busy week coming up with the FOMC on Wednesday afternoon and the NFP numbers on Friday morning.

The Week Ahead 2019-07-21

Since bonds do not have a clear five wave impulse down from the rejection of 156^14, I think it best to allow for an attempt to retest resist again into the FOMC meeting. Overall the cyclic position suggests the rise up from last year is late in development.

Natural Gas via ETF (UNG) Update

Making a UNG update since I spent time staring at the daily. First, the weekly chart. Nothing new from when I last posted it. I think UNG is trying to feel out for a low in the 62 week cycle. Price needs to be over 21.65 to cause bears to cover.

iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI) Update

At the start of 2018, EWI ended wave [e] of a triangle and dropped in the first five wave impulse lower at the end of last year. Since then, EWI has been bouncing in a three wave move for a wave (ii). While having tested a possible target at 28.83 two weeks ago, it strikes me as too aggressive to say that wave 'c of (ii)' is complete while above 30.00 as the overhead target tested so far is a bit short of what is typical for a wave (ii).

The Week Ahead 2019-07-14

I'm sticking the weekly chart of the Natural Gas ETF UNG here until I spend more time looking at the daily chart at which point I will make a separate post for UNG. I have been looking for a possible wave (v) low develop for the past month or so and while it dropped under the targets I had listed, this does look like a possible low. Until over 21.65 and 22.58 there is a chance they retest the low though if they did, it should be brief.

Japanese Yen and ETF (FXY) 2019-07-09

One of the reasons that I have been skeptical about the gold rise is the correlation that it has had with the Japanese yen and I'm still bearish yen as the triangle is still valid here.

The Week Ahead 2019-07-07

Over the last few weeks, bonds have been forming candle wicks against resist as the two dominant cycles are cresting. I continue to think that bonds are close to reversing lower but need under 153^16 for first confirmation.

The Week Ahead: 2019-06-30

We are starting a holiday week with positive news over the weekend. Wednesday is a half day with Thursday closed for the US independence day. Friday morning is the NFP.

The Week Ahead: 2019-06-23

Cycles and an exhaustion study agree with my wave count that bonds are ready for a reversal. First evidence of a reversal is for bonds prices to drop under prior resist at 153^16.