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Morning & evening updates

We chart the S&P 500, crude oil, the Euro, Dollar Index, treasury bonds, and gold, typically with a morning and evening post for every trading day.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-06-12

Bonds rose today and I think it likely to continue in the expectation of a dovish FOMC next week. Could have a small stall against 154^07 tomorrow.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-06-11

Bonds tested 152^26 today and that may be good enough for wave iv. I like the idea of bonds rising into next week for the FOMC meeting along with the fast cycle.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-06-06

Bonds have been on track forming a small correction. It would be best that bond prices run sideways to slightly lower so as to allow the moving averages catch up.

The Day Ahead: AM Edition 2019-06-05

Charts added to this post as I complete them. Full post ETA 10:30. Bonds appear to be on track with the wave iv hypothesis dripping under 153^29 toward 152^25. I prefer lower in crude but there is a...

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-06-04

Bonds pulled back today which is consistent with the forecast for a wave iv to develop before pushing ahead to a fresh swing high. Typical wave iv supports are 152^27 and 151^22.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-06-03

Bonds now have a Wave 59 9-5 exhaustion signal present but I think it would look better with one last down/up move before the wave [ii] is complete. Wave iii could extend as long as prices are above 153^30.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-05-30

Bonds are still extending wave iii up but I still think a retrace is due. Current Gann based resist at 153^07. Note that the Wave 59 9-5 study will have a gold 4 on the Friday bar, one short of an ideal exhaustion signal. Also of not is that the fast cycle is at a high now and is scheduled to head down into the end of next week.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-05-29

Expecting at least a few days of choppy retrace to form a wave iv in bonds. Watching 151^18 and 150^24 for support. Think of a sidewise move as a way for the daily moving averages to catch up to one of the support areas.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-05-28

Bonds pushed past initial weekly resist at 151^13 today and now aiming for 152^31, an extended wave iii target and after that should form a minor consolidation in a wave iv before stretching for 154^03.

The Day Ahead: AM Edition 2019-05-24

Charts added to this post as I complete them. Full post ETA 10:15. Programing note: Next Monday is a US holiday thus no scheduled posts will be made. Regular schedule starts up again on Tuesday morning.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-05-23

Bonds made it up to the extended wave iii target of 151^15 today. Fair to assume a choppy correction to form for wave iv. Typical wave iv supports are at 150^09 and 149^22.

The Day Ahead: AM Edition 2019-05-22

Charts added to this post as I complete them. Full post ETA 10:15. Bonds are on plan rising from support as expected and aiming for 150^18. Crude certainly went for a deep retrace of its recent...

Weekly updates & other posts

(Public posts are included on this page too.)

The Week Ahead: 2019-06-09

Cycles and the 9-5 study suggest that bonds are ripe for a reversal. At a lower time frame, it is possible the argue for one last small down and up move but very late in the game as price has reached the next set of resist at 155^04 to 155^21.

The Week Ahead: 2019-06-02

Bonds moved from the first target zone to the next last week. Now have an exhaustion signal when the dominant short term weekly cycle it cresting. The longer cycle still has some time left in it but the tailwind should be diminishing.

Natural Gas via (UNG) – 2019-06-02

When I last wrote on UNG, I was looking for a possible truncated wave (v) low in conjunction with a projected cycle low for the year. Prices did in fact climb but was rejected by initial resist at 23.31. Despite that, the overall forecast for a possible low for the year in development is the same.

The Week Ahead: 2019-05-27

Before looking at the weekly bond chart, I want to draw your attention the this monthly chart of the 30 year yields. Yields finally dropped as expected to a new low on the year and at the top target of 27.61. The next target lower is 26.70 but no guarantee it will reach it. My hypothesis is that we are within a in a few month window that sets the low in yields, and high in bonds, for the year.

The Week Ahead 2019-05-19

Bonds are close to retesting the March high and hence may slow or consolidate a bit but think the bias remains up into at least next month, maybe out to August.

Natural Gas via UNG 2019-05-13

The weekly cycle in UNG has lengthened and is now forecasting a low over the next several weeks and rises toward the end of the year. The daily chart has a five wave count down from the wave iv bounce high in March. Prices rising over 23.31 is first confirmation that the low may be set though it is conceivable that the turn up is slow like in mid 2018.

The Week Ahead 2019-05-06

Well, interesting start on the week as the trade news has dropped the S&P futures 50 points and bonds up a handle as each jumps in the direction according to forecast.

The Week Ahead: 2019-04-28

Second week of bonds holding support at 146^29 bodes well for a rise into July or August for wave (c) of [ii].

The Week Ahead: 2019-04-21

Bonds trying to regain its footing against 146^29. I put more emphasis on the longer cycle on this chart which continues to climb into August over the shorter cycle which is topping out now.

AT&T Update 2019-04-21

My power went down for about an hour last week and prompted to pick a book off my bookshelf to read by the window till the power came back on. After the power came back up, I had asked in the chat room if there was any favorite stock that anyone wanted me to look at with through the lens of a technique that I just re-read about. AT&T (T) was suggested so below are my thoughts on (T) and some analysis using a Gann timing technique.

The Week Ahead: 2019-04-14

Tricky position in bonds as we are approaching the next weekly cycle inflection. I prefer that to be used as either a wave iv or as 'c of (b)' both of which call for higher bond prices over the next several months.

The Week Ahead: 2019-04-07

Before looking at the weekly bond chart, how about a peek at the monthly 30 year yield chart. The dominant cycle on this chart suggests a low in yields for the year being set in the next few months. This is compatible with the bond forecast.

Natural Gas via UNG Update 2019-04-07

UNG has dropped from January 16th and from the next pop up in early March which is consistent with the forecast for lower from a wave iv bounce. Both weekly and daily cycles suggest an inflection point is near but price is not as deep as I'd like it. Since we now have prices back into the range UNG was in for much of 2018, I'm not confident in much lower prices but neither can I say lower is impossible. Disclosure, Natural Gas is my kryptonite, it is the market I have the most difficult time with, so take this accordingly, but I think we are in an area where a long trader can begin to accumulate.

The Week Ahead: 2019-03-31

Bonds appear ready to enter a couple weeks of correction before rising in one last impulse to finish (c) of [ii] up.

The Week Ahead 2019-03-25

I've decided to relent and move (b) to the low of the three month consolidation in bonds and thus looking higher for (c) of [ii]. The next ideal cycle inflection is April 12th so plenty of time for (c) to stretch a bit higher.

The Week Ahead 2019-03-17

I still like the idea that the (a) wave up in the bonds off the low is in but can live with 'b of (b)' testing or even exceeding the high as an alternate. I have included the monthly line on close chart to put things in perspective.

The Week Ahead 2019-03-10

I've stared at the bonds charts on and off for a few hours and is slowing me up getting this post off the ground. Maybe I should just put my thoughts to bits and explain what I have been thinking about.

Copper Update 2019-03-10

Quick update on copper. Copper has softened against resist and either set a (b) wave high or 'a of a more complex (b)'. Looking at a daily chart there is some wiggle room for a modest new high in the short term if they react strongly to support at 2.88. I have also included a chart of the copper mining ETF COPX so as to have a visual of the possible complex (b) wave alternate.

Natural Gas via UNG 2019-03-10

Back when I last updated UNG charts, I thought a bounce was due and in fact one has taken place. The question now is, was the low in February the end of the pattern down from the November high from last year or is there one more low left? I favor the latter because fourth waves typically have a complex wave form and we have yet to a new low or test of the 2017 low. For timing, thinking the best time for a low is late March or early April, even it turns out to be a higher low.

The Week Ahead 2019-03-03

Bonds are closing in on a (b) wave low over the next few weeks. There may be a short term bounce against 143^20 but as long as bond prices remain under 144^31 prefer lower to the next weekly support at 142^01 or a daily target of 141^30.

Yen Futures & Yen ETF FXY 2019-03-03

When I last posted charts on Japanese Yen, I was looking for a bounce up from a possible (d) wave low of a triangle [iv]. It looks like the last wave of that triangle, wave (e), completed at the start of this year. Cycles suggest wave [v] down is in progress and could last till August of this year

The Week Ahead 2019-02-24

Bonds should at least eventually retest 143^30 before advancing in the third part of a wave [II] later this year. In the shorter term, it is not clear if 'b of (b)' is complete as there was a bounce...

Copper Update: 2019-02-22

In the short term copper has advanced as I laid out in the last daily chart though reaching initial short term targets now so I thought I would give an update. Big picture, this is either working on a (b) wave or the first step up in a (b) wave depending on where you place the (a) wave low.

The Week Ahead: 2019-02-18

Not much change in bonds. Looks like the 'b of (b)' is still in development. Thinking it best to allow for 147^22 to be tested this week. If at the end of the week bonds are still held back by 147^02, then that might be it.

Copper Update 2019-02-17

Since the middle of last year, my view has been that copper needs to bounce in a (b) wave as preparation for rolling down again in a (c) wave. Copper is now at an initial target for 'c of (b)' at 2.85. When dropping down to a daily chart, you can make a case for a little push up for one more wave up so as to get a five count up from the early January low. Once copper does roll lower, if it makes a higher low to the 2016 low, it will qualify as both a wave [b] or [ii]. If it eventually makes a new low to the 2016 low, it will be valid as a [b] wave low.

The Week Ahead 2019-02-10

The 'b of (b)' in bonds is still developing as bonds were unable to break under the daily moving averages early last week. The overall plan is to get a choppy retrace from the high early in January to next month or early April before advancing again into July for a wave [ii].

Natural Gas via UNG Update

When I last posted a UNG chart about two weeks ago, my assumption was that a wave iv bounce was forming against 30.08. As it turns out, that resist was not challenged again and prices have continued to fall. That said, I think it might be jumping the gun to say that UNG is now down in 'v of (iv)' though that is the alternate. The primary I am running with is that this drop is '[B] of iv' and due soon for a move up in '[C] of iv'. Targets for iv are at 26.71 and 29.13. As for timing, beginning to mid April looks appealing for the 'v of (v)' low. Weekly and daily charts below.

The Week Ahead: 2019-02-03

A case can be made that bonds have completed 'b of (b)' and now ready to decline in 'c of (b)'.

The Week Ahead 2019-01-27

Bonds are about halfway in the development of a (b) wave down from the (a) wave high at the start of the year. I expect (b) to be a complex choppy formation. In the short term bonds can trade a little lower but overall thinking somewhat sideways into mid February.

The Week Ahead 2019-01-20

Monday is a US holiday thus will not post in the morning though will post daily charts in the late afternoon/early evening. Also had a request to follow natural gas again which I will do, posting on it once a month.

The Week Ahead 2019-01-13

The fast dominant cycle is at a crest in weekly bonds and prices have been attempting to reject 148^31 for the last two weeks. I can't say it is impossible to retest resist but provisionally calling wave (a) up complete. Next support is at 143^30. I think the next major timing in bonds will be in the summer around July or August so prefer to see several months of choppy movement lower followed by a summer rally to complete (c) of [ii].

The Week Ahead 2019-01-06

Bonds tested a Gann related resist this week at 148^31 when both weekly and daily cycles suggest a cycle high making it a candidate for the (a) high that I have been looking for. If wave (a) is in, the retrace in (b) should take the form of a choppy three wave move over the next few months.