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Morning & evening updates

We chart the S&P 500, crude oil, the Euro, Dollar Index, treasury bonds, and gold, typically with a morning and evening post for every trading day.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-22

Bonds finally came through with falling away from 165^08 and are now nearing first support at 162^31. Prefer first support fail and test 161^23 but probably smart to manage if short. Expect bulls to try to bounce it up from one of the two supports.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-21

Little change in bonds as they are still being held down by 165^08 but prices have not yet fallen away from resist to test 161^23 and the daily moving averages.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-20

Bonds for the most part traded in the range from yesterday. 165^08 held as resist today and likely will tomorrow as well, up until the 14:00 FOMC minutes anyway. At that point, they either decide to press over and try for a modest new high, not crazy about this option but possible, or reject 165^08 and drop to test 162^31 or 161^23 and the daily moving averages.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-19

The drop under 165^08 means at a minimum a small degree fourth is forming before pushing to yet another swing high. Support for wave (IV) at 162^31 and 161^23. Under 161^23 would be confirmation that wave 'a of (b) of ending diagonal [v]' lower is taking place.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-15

Bonds pushed to the next target at 166^31 today. Now to see if they pause and continue up or my preferred view, that they reverse lower from this area.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-14

Bonds pushed to a new all time high today invalidated the wave [ii] thus promoting the alternate of a wave [v] of an ending diagonal. Next price target is higher at 166^31 at which point we will see how much retrace we get.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-12

My idea of a lower high in bonds is in danger. Bond prices are rising from a test of support in what appears to be [V] of v of (c). If that terminates under 164^28, it will be for a wave [ii], if a new high, [v] of the ending diagonal.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-08

Bonds had a steep decline to test important support at 160^10 and rose from it today. Now there is resist at 162^23 which could cause a retest of support. As long as 160^10 holds as support, expect a retest of Wednesday high if not poke slightly over it.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-07

Pretty impressive rise and fall in bonds today. It should be at least a wave [III] of v of (c) of [ii] high though if you squint you could call it all of wave [ii]. For now, expect a retrace to 161^19 or 160^10. If prices drop under 160^10, will work under the assumption wave [ii] was set.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-06

Bonds continued their advance today to reach for the next Gann resistance at 162^08. Note that there is a projected cycle high tomorrow and the Lomb Periodogram also forecasts a high in this area. Also, the 9-5 study is one bar off from an ideal exhaustion signal tomorrow. Should I give up on the lower high wave [II] idea given that we are only about three handles short of a new high? I'm sticking with the ending diagonal count that has served me for many years until wrong, and even then will see it as an ending diagonal that grew. From a practical perspective it doesn't matter much since I doubt there is a truly good fade till September at the earliest the way bonds have been behaving for the last five days.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-05

The bond rise should slow down and undergo a retrace against resist at 161^19 or 162^08. Support for the retrace at 159^18 and 158^15.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-01

Bonds are closing in on a possible wave [III] of v of (c) of [ii] at 158^07. Typical supports for a wave four retrace are at 157^04 and 156^16.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-07-31

Bonds lifted up from the daily moving averages to test resist at 155^27. Today was a positive for the forecast calling for one more push for 157^05 or 158^15.

Weekly updates & other posts

(Public posts are included on this page too.)

The Week Ahead 2019-08-18

Well, now that bonds moved past the prior high in 2016, what does it mean? It means that the ending diagonal is growing larger and that the move up from the October 2018 low should be comprised of three segments. On the scale of the ending diagonal, spanning ten years, we have yet to see an appropriate sized corrective move for the middle segment of [v], thus must see the current rise as the first segment, (a) of [v].

The Week Ahead 2019-08-11

Bonds have run up to just short of the 2016 but it is holding under it so far. I prefer a lower high to 165^04 but if it pokes to a new high, I will just call this the end of a larger diagonal. Ideally, prices use 162^30 as resistance and fall back to 159^04 or 156^01. Bears need bond prices under 156^01 to take a new high off the table.

Yen Futures and ETF (FXY) Update – 2019-08-07

Yen has rallied up with gold but I still think the overall Elliott triangle is still valid. It looks like the dominant weekly cycle will be invert and be a high. The ideal cycle infection point is September 13 but we are already in the window. First step for a reversal would be falling under prior resist at 0.009386.

The Week Ahead: 2019-08-04

The idea of a lower high in bonds is certainly under stress as bond prices are nearing the 7/8th retrace at 161^09 which is the practical last chance for a wave [ii]. 160^14 which is a fib extension is worth paying attention to early this week.

Natural Gas via UNG Update

As you know, I've been watching UNG for a possible significant cycle low nearby and expecting a rise into early next year. While prices have slipped a little lower, that is consistent with the main forecast on the daily chart from the last update. UNG is now near weekly and daily supports and is worth monitoring closely.

The Week Ahead: 2019-07-28

Very busy week coming up with the FOMC on Wednesday afternoon and the NFP numbers on Friday morning.

The Week Ahead 2019-07-21

Since bonds do not have a clear five wave impulse down from the rejection of 156^14, I think it best to allow for an attempt to retest resist again into the FOMC meeting. Overall the cyclic position suggests the rise up from last year is late in development.

Natural Gas via ETF (UNG) Update

Making a UNG update since I spent time staring at the daily. First, the weekly chart. Nothing new from when I last posted it. I think UNG is trying to feel out for a low in the 62 week cycle. Price needs to be over 21.65 to cause bears to cover.

iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI) Update

At the start of 2018, EWI ended wave [e] of a triangle and dropped in the first five wave impulse lower at the end of last year. Since then, EWI has been bouncing in a three wave move for a wave (ii). While having tested a possible target at 28.83 two weeks ago, it strikes me as too aggressive to say that wave 'c of (ii)' is complete while above 30.00 as the overhead target tested so far is a bit short of what is typical for a wave (ii).

The Week Ahead 2019-07-14

I'm sticking the weekly chart of the Natural Gas ETF UNG here until I spend more time looking at the daily chart at which point I will make a separate post for UNG. I have been looking for a possible wave (v) low develop for the past month or so and while it dropped under the targets I had listed, this does look like a possible low. Until over 21.65 and 22.58 there is a chance they retest the low though if they did, it should be brief.

Japanese Yen and ETF (FXY) 2019-07-09

One of the reasons that I have been skeptical about the gold rise is the correlation that it has had with the Japanese yen and I'm still bearish yen as the triangle is still valid here.

The Week Ahead 2019-07-07

Over the last few weeks, bonds have been forming candle wicks against resist as the two dominant cycles are cresting. I continue to think that bonds are close to reversing lower but need under 153^16 for first confirmation.

The Week Ahead: 2019-06-30

We are starting a holiday week with positive news over the weekend. Wednesday is a half day with Thursday closed for the US independence day. Friday morning is the NFP.

The Week Ahead: 2019-06-23

Cycles and an exhaustion study agree with my wave count that bonds are ready for a reversal. First evidence of a reversal is for bonds prices to drop under prior resist at 153^16.

Newsletter: Expect a reversal in treasuries soon

With the FOMC meeting this week, the price of long-term treasuries is reaching our target area at an interesting time. This edition of the free newsletter from Trading On The Mark offers readers an...

The Week Ahead: 2019-06-16

Primary view is that bonds are late in a wave [II] bounce up from the 2018 low. The faster of the two weekly cycle suggest the top is nearby thought the longer cycle could help hold prices up into July or early August. Alternates, not listed on the chart, are that this is just (a) of [II] and there will be a future retest of this resist zone again after a decline in (b) of [II] and a bullish alternate that treats this a wave (a) of an ending diagonal [v]. All the counts can use at least a retrace lower from nearby.

The Week Ahead: 2019-06-09

Cycles and the 9-5 study suggest that bonds are ripe for a reversal. At a lower time frame, it is possible the argue for one last small down and up move but very late in the game as price has reached the next set of resist at 155^04 to 155^21.

The Week Ahead: 2019-06-02

Bonds moved from the first target zone to the next last week. Now have an exhaustion signal when the dominant short term weekly cycle it cresting. The longer cycle still has some time left in it but the tailwind should be diminishing.

Natural Gas via (UNG) – 2019-06-02

When I last wrote on UNG, I was looking for a possible truncated wave (v) low in conjunction with a projected cycle low for the year. Prices did in fact climb but was rejected by initial resist at 23.31. Despite that, the overall forecast for a possible low for the year in development is the same.

The Week Ahead: 2019-05-27

Before looking at the weekly bond chart, I want to draw your attention the this monthly chart of the 30 year yields. Yields finally dropped as expected to a new low on the year and at the top target of 27.61. The next target lower is 26.70 but no guarantee it will reach it. My hypothesis is that we are within a in a few month window that sets the low in yields, and high in bonds, for the year.

The Week Ahead 2019-05-19

Bonds are close to retesting the March high and hence may slow or consolidate a bit but think the bias remains up into at least next month, maybe out to August.

Natural Gas via UNG 2019-05-13

The weekly cycle in UNG has lengthened and is now forecasting a low over the next several weeks and rises toward the end of the year. The daily chart has a five wave count down from the wave iv bounce high in March. Prices rising over 23.31 is first confirmation that the low may be set though it is conceivable that the turn up is slow like in mid 2018.

Newsletter: T-bonds reaching the end of their bounce

The bearish scenario for treasury bonds that we described in September and again in October appears to be on track. This edition of the free TOTM newsletter shows some upward targets that nimble...

The Week Ahead 2019-05-06

Well, interesting start on the week as the trade news has dropped the S&P futures 50 points and bonds up a handle as each jumps in the direction according to forecast.

The Week Ahead: 2019-04-28

Second week of bonds holding support at 146^29 bodes well for a rise into July or August for wave (c) of [ii].

The Week Ahead: 2019-04-21

Bonds trying to regain its footing against 146^29. I put more emphasis on the longer cycle on this chart which continues to climb into August over the shorter cycle which is topping out now.

AT&T Update 2019-04-21

My power went down for about an hour last week and prompted to pick a book off my bookshelf to read by the window till the power came back on. After the power came back up, I had asked in the chat room if there was any favorite stock that anyone wanted me to look at with through the lens of a technique that I just re-read about. AT&T (T) was suggested so below are my thoughts on (T) and some analysis using a Gann timing technique.

The Week Ahead: 2019-04-14

Tricky position in bonds as we are approaching the next weekly cycle inflection. I prefer that to be used as either a wave iv or as 'c of (b)' both of which call for higher bond prices over the next several months.

The Week Ahead: 2019-04-07

Before looking at the weekly bond chart, how about a peek at the monthly 30 year yield chart. The dominant cycle on this chart suggests a low in yields for the year being set in the next few months. This is compatible with the bond forecast.