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Morning & evening updates

We chart the S&P 500, crude oil, the Euro, Dollar Index, treasury bonds, and gold, typically with a morning and evening post for every trading day.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-10-21

Bonds dropped lower to near the next tiny support of 159^02 today. The nano pattern can be seen two different ways that allow a bit of a retrace up or prices begin to cascade down in [III] of c of (b).

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-10-17

The expected wave [II] bounce in bounds got started today as prices dropped to just beyond support at 159^17 and rose to just under the initial target at 160^25. Allow for a couple days of sideways to slightly higher as wave [II] forms. Next resist is at 161^17.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-10-16

Bonds traded in a relatively small range today. A chance prices dip a bit lower but still think the plan is to bounce a bit, perhaps test the daily moving averages from below, then drop away in wave '[III] of c of (b)' lower.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-10-15

Bonds dropped a little lower today after the one day consolidation yesterday. I think this qualifies for form as the first impulse down from the wave 'b' lower high. Bond prices certainly could extend to test 159^02 or 158^12 but think it best to allow for a wave [II] bounce to test resist at 161^03 or 161^25 before resuming the push lower.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-10-14

Bonds bounced today and recovered 161^16, a prior support turned resist. I prefer another press down from this area to complete the first impulse down from the 'b' wave high.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-10-10

Bonds broke under the daily moving averages today and thus following the forecast for a 'c of (b)' lower. Next minor support is at 161^16 but not a place to expect 'c' to end. The earliest place to look for the end of 'c of (b)' is 159^17 though lower is typical. Assuming that the cycle in red is active but inverted, we should expect net lower till mid November.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-10-08

Bonds had dropped under 164^14 but recovered it late in the day. I'm saying that is a minor positive for higher to test 165^19 but I can't be excited about higher as I still think the 'b' wave high is near.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-10-07

The '[C] of b' high may be set in bonds though confirmation is still lower under 162^26 and the daily moving averages. Interesting that the Lomb is forecasting a cycle high when the dominant cycles are at an inflection point which may mean the cycles are inverting and that we may get a drop into next month.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-10-03

Bonds pushed past 163^08 this morning on to spike just over next resist at 164^14. I think this is a good place to start looking for the end of [C] of b. First step in a reversal would be a loss of old resist at 163^08.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-10-02

Bonds poked higher today, not much of a surprise, but it is worth noting that it didn't rise much against the equity weakness today. I think it too early to fade but bonds should be in the late stages of wave 'b' formation.

S&P 500 (SPX) Update 2019-10-02

Market is proving weaker than expected this morning with prices dropping through 2905. Next step down is 2881. You must be logged in as a Daily Analysis or Intraday Analysis subscriber to view the...

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-10-01

Bonds lifted from support at 160^31 this morning on the disappointing ISM number. High of the day was a retest of the prior high and resist at 163^08. This makes discerning the form more difficult but I'm going with a shallow [B] wave at the low of the day and up in '[C] of b'. Technically 'b' could be complete though best to allow a little higher to test 164^14 or 165^19.

Weekly updates & other posts

(Public posts are included on this page too.)

The Week Ahead: 2019-06-16

Primary view is that bonds are late in a wave [II] bounce up from the 2018 low. The faster of the two weekly cycle suggest the top is nearby thought the longer cycle could help hold prices up into July or early August. Alternates, not listed on the chart, are that this is just (a) of [II] and there will be a future retest of this resist zone again after a decline in (b) of [II] and a bullish alternate that treats this a wave (a) of an ending diagonal [v]. All the counts can use at least a retrace lower from nearby.

The Week Ahead: 2019-06-09

Cycles and the 9-5 study suggest that bonds are ripe for a reversal. At a lower time frame, it is possible the argue for one last small down and up move but very late in the game as price has reached the next set of resist at 155^04 to 155^21.

The Week Ahead: 2019-06-02

Bonds moved from the first target zone to the next last week. Now have an exhaustion signal when the dominant short term weekly cycle it cresting. The longer cycle still has some time left in it but the tailwind should be diminishing.

Natural Gas via (UNG) – 2019-06-02

When I last wrote on UNG, I was looking for a possible truncated wave (v) low in conjunction with a projected cycle low for the year. Prices did in fact climb but was rejected by initial resist at 23.31. Despite that, the overall forecast for a possible low for the year in development is the same.

The Week Ahead: 2019-05-27

Before looking at the weekly bond chart, I want to draw your attention the this monthly chart of the 30 year yields. Yields finally dropped as expected to a new low on the year and at the top target of 27.61. The next target lower is 26.70 but no guarantee it will reach it. My hypothesis is that we are within a in a few month window that sets the low in yields, and high in bonds, for the year.

The Week Ahead 2019-05-19

Bonds are close to retesting the March high and hence may slow or consolidate a bit but think the bias remains up into at least next month, maybe out to August.

Natural Gas via UNG 2019-05-13

The weekly cycle in UNG has lengthened and is now forecasting a low over the next several weeks and rises toward the end of the year. The daily chart has a five wave count down from the wave iv bounce high in March. Prices rising over 23.31 is first confirmation that the low may be set though it is conceivable that the turn up is slow like in mid 2018.

Newsletter: T-bonds reaching the end of their bounce

The bearish scenario for treasury bonds that we described in September and again in October appears to be on track. This edition of the free TOTM newsletter shows some upward targets that nimble...

The Week Ahead 2019-05-06

Well, interesting start on the week as the trade news has dropped the S&P futures 50 points and bonds up a handle as each jumps in the direction according to forecast.

The Week Ahead: 2019-04-28

Second week of bonds holding support at 146^29 bodes well for a rise into July or August for wave (c) of [ii].

The Week Ahead: 2019-04-21

Bonds trying to regain its footing against 146^29. I put more emphasis on the longer cycle on this chart which continues to climb into August over the shorter cycle which is topping out now.

AT&T Update 2019-04-21

My power went down for about an hour last week and prompted to pick a book off my bookshelf to read by the window till the power came back on. After the power came back up, I had asked in the chat room if there was any favorite stock that anyone wanted me to look at with through the lens of a technique that I just re-read about. AT&T (T) was suggested so below are my thoughts on (T) and some analysis using a Gann timing technique.

The Week Ahead: 2019-04-14

Tricky position in bonds as we are approaching the next weekly cycle inflection. I prefer that to be used as either a wave iv or as 'c of (b)' both of which call for higher bond prices over the next several months.

The Week Ahead: 2019-04-07

Before looking at the weekly bond chart, how about a peek at the monthly 30 year yield chart. The dominant cycle on this chart suggests a low in yields for the year being set in the next few months. This is compatible with the bond forecast.

Natural Gas via UNG Update 2019-04-07

UNG has dropped from January 16th and from the next pop up in early March which is consistent with the forecast for lower from a wave iv bounce. Both weekly and daily cycles suggest an inflection point is near but price is not as deep as I'd like it. Since we now have prices back into the range UNG was in for much of 2018, I'm not confident in much lower prices but neither can I say lower is impossible. Disclosure, Natural Gas is my kryptonite, it is the market I have the most difficult time with, so take this accordingly, but I think we are in an area where a long trader can begin to accumulate.

The Week Ahead: 2019-03-31

Bonds appear ready to enter a couple weeks of correction before rising in one last impulse to finish (c) of [ii] up.

The Week Ahead 2019-03-25

I've decided to relent and move (b) to the low of the three month consolidation in bonds and thus looking higher for (c) of [ii]. The next ideal cycle inflection is April 12th so plenty of time for (c) to stretch a bit higher.

The Week Ahead 2019-03-17

I still like the idea that the (a) wave up in the bonds off the low is in but can live with 'b of (b)' testing or even exceeding the high as an alternate. I have included the monthly line on close chart to put things in perspective.

Newsletter: Yen forecast – special extended version

This post with exclusive charts and content is just for readers of our emailed newsletter. It shows how the Yen and the related ETF appear to be on the verge of breaking out of a multi-year triangle...

The Week Ahead 2019-03-10

I've stared at the bonds charts on and off for a few hours and is slowing me up getting this post off the ground. Maybe I should just put my thoughts to bits and explain what I have been thinking about.

Copper Update 2019-03-10

Quick update on copper. Copper has softened against resist and either set a (b) wave high or 'a of a more complex (b)'. Looking at a daily chart there is some wiggle room for a modest new high in the short term if they react strongly to support at 2.88. I have also included a chart of the copper mining ETF COPX so as to have a visual of the possible complex (b) wave alternate.

Natural Gas via UNG 2019-03-10

Back when I last updated UNG charts, I thought a bounce was due and in fact one has taken place. The question now is, was the low in February the end of the pattern down from the November high from last year or is there one more low left? I favor the latter because fourth waves typically have a complex wave form and we have yet to a new low or test of the 2017 low. For timing, thinking the best time for a low is late March or early April, even it turns out to be a higher low.

The Week Ahead 2019-03-03

Bonds are closing in on a (b) wave low over the next few weeks. There may be a short term bounce against 143^20 but as long as bond prices remain under 144^31 prefer lower to the next weekly support at 142^01 or a daily target of 141^30.

Yen Futures & Yen ETF FXY 2019-03-03

When I last posted charts on Japanese Yen, I was looking for a bounce up from a possible (d) wave low of a triangle [iv]. It looks like the last wave of that triangle, wave (e), completed at the start of this year. Cycles suggest wave [v] down is in progress and could last till August of this year

The Week Ahead 2019-02-24

Bonds should at least eventually retest 143^30 before advancing in the third part of a wave [II] later this year. In the shorter term, it is not clear if 'b of (b)' is complete as there was a bounce...

Copper Update: 2019-02-22

In the short term copper has advanced as I laid out in the last daily chart though reaching initial short term targets now so I thought I would give an update. Big picture, this is either working on a (b) wave or the first step up in a (b) wave depending on where you place the (a) wave low.

The Week Ahead: 2019-02-18

Not much change in bonds. Looks like the 'b of (b)' is still in development. Thinking it best to allow for 147^22 to be tested this week. If at the end of the week bonds are still held back by 147^02, then that might be it.

Copper Update 2019-02-17

Since the middle of last year, my view has been that copper needs to bounce in a (b) wave as preparation for rolling down again in a (c) wave. Copper is now at an initial target for 'c of (b)' at 2.85. When dropping down to a daily chart, you can make a case for a little push up for one more wave up so as to get a five count up from the early January low. Once copper does roll lower, if it makes a higher low to the 2016 low, it will qualify as both a wave [b] or [ii]. If it eventually makes a new low to the 2016 low, it will be valid as a [b] wave low.

The Week Ahead 2019-02-10

The 'b of (b)' in bonds is still developing as bonds were unable to break under the daily moving averages early last week. The overall plan is to get a choppy retrace from the high early in January to next month or early April before advancing again into July for a wave [ii].

Natural Gas via UNG Update

When I last posted a UNG chart about two weeks ago, my assumption was that a wave iv bounce was forming against 30.08. As it turns out, that resist was not challenged again and prices have continued to fall. That said, I think it might be jumping the gun to say that UNG is now down in 'v of (iv)' though that is the alternate. The primary I am running with is that this drop is '[B] of iv' and due soon for a move up in '[C] of iv'. Targets for iv are at 26.71 and 29.13. As for timing, beginning to mid April looks appealing for the 'v of (v)' low. Weekly and daily charts below.

The Week Ahead: 2019-02-03

A case can be made that bonds have completed 'b of (b)' and now ready to decline in 'c of (b)'.