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Morning & evening updates

We chart the S&P 500, crude oil, the Euro, Dollar Index, treasury bonds, and gold, typically with a morning and evening post for every trading day.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-03-28

Bonds appear to be stalling against 150^09 and thus wave iii may be complete. If so, I think wave iv take the form of something that wastes time for several weeks before advancing in the last wave up of (c) of [ii].

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-03-27

Bonds came through moving higher today to test 150^09. With the strength on this bar it even looks like they can target the wave iii extended target at 151^15.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-03-20

Bonds lifted after the FOMC statement into resist at 147^06. Now will see if they drop back under 146^26 and 145^27 for evidence of a reversal over the next few days.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-03-19

Bonds dropped to lean on support at 145^10 today but wasn't able to break lower which is not unusual given that we will have the results of the FOMC meeting tomorrow afternoon.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-03-14

Bonds fell back to support today from 145^10 and the daily moving averages. This is consistent with the view that bonds are trapped between 146^26 and 145^10 until the FOMC meeting next week.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-03-13

Bonds are likely stuck between 145^10 and 146^26 till the FOMC meeting next week. I think form could be complete for a 'b' wave at this point.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-03-12

Bonds lifted from the 145^10 support and daily moving averages today to poke past 146^04. I think the form now looks complete for [C] of b. Could it extend? Sure, but I don't think anyone should count on it.

The Day Ahead: AM Edition 2019-03-12

Pardon for the tardy post this morning. I forgot to set my alarm and my circadian rhythm has not caught up with the time change. Charts added to this post as I complete them. Full post ETA 11:15.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-10-11

It is possible that the 'b' wave high is set in bonds against 146^04 but I am thinking that they chop around between 146^04 and 145^10 for a few days.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-03-07

Bonds had another good day today pushing over the daily moving averages thus confirming that either the (b) wave low is in or that the last consolidation was a lengthy fourth wave and thereby up in 'v of (a)'. Next overhead resist is at 146^04 after which a modest sideways correction can set in.

Weekly updates & other posts

(Public posts are included on this page too.)

The Week Ahead 2018-11-05

Pretty eventful week coming up with ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 10:00 on Monday, US midterm elections on Tuesday, and the FOMC November meeting statement on Thursday at 14:00. I think there may be some room for US equity markets to bounce a little more Monday morning but wouldn't be surprised if selling comes in later in the day and Tuesday on some election nervousness. Overall, thinking equity can head higher later in the week but that is probably getting to far ahead of the game as will have to see how they behave overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

The Week Ahead 2018-10-28

Bonds have bounced to retest the prior break lower. Below I have added both of the ideas I am working with. Both imply lower into at least December and I wouldn't be surprised if it extended into March. The difference between both ideas is how much bounce takes place once the next low is set. The first would only result in a weak sidewise move versus the second which would bounce higher, perhaps near the 150 handle.

S&P 500 Update

As I have been looking at this in the morning, I have talked myself into this possibility which would imply the low was set yesterday and now in a rally off that low. Selling resistance at 2794 or 2707 is fair, but be prepared to not get a new low on the day out of it.

The Week Ahead 2018-10-21

The scheduled economic news is heavily weighted toward the middle to the end of the week with US New home sales Wednesday, the ECB press conference Thursday morning along with US Durable goods orders, and US GDP on Friday.

The Week Ahead 2018-10-14

Before looking at bonds, here is a chart of the 30 year Treasury yield. Yield has broken above the long enduring channel. The next cycle inflection is March of next year which suggests this break has several more months to run.

The Week Ahead 2018-10-07

Bonds extended lower last week have breaking under a series of prior lower. I'd like to see support form from a little lower and bounce retest the break before continuing lower.

The Week Ahead 2018-10-01

The week will start of dominated by exuberance that the trade agreement with Canada and Mexico got ironed out. Plenty of economic data this week with the high point being the NFP on Friday. That means there is plenty of news that can be used to move the markets around. On to the charts.

The Week Ahead 2018-09-23

To summarize expectations over the next three to six months: Bonds accelerate lower into spring of next year, US equities in a topping phase starting now and lasting as late as early next year, Dollar Index stronger in the period, Euro weaker, and gold net lower but should have a correction sideways to higher in the period. Let us move into the weekly charts.

The Week Ahead 2018-09-17

I'm going to do this post a little differently than I have been in the past. I have been requested to formulate my thoughts on the big picture and what may take place over several time periods, three, six, nine months and more into the future. I won't address that fully in this post, but later when I think more on it and prepare some charts but will mention ideas for where things could be in the three to six month window.

The Week Ahead 2018-09-09

Bonds appear to be dropping from a completed wave (ii). We will have more confidence in that hypothesis once under 142^03.

The Week Ahead 2018-09-03

Hope you all are enjoying the last long weekend of the summer. This next week will see people getting settled in and back to work.

The Week Ahead 2018-08-26

The main count in bonds is the 1-2,1-2 type count where prices break lower from near here in wave (iii). Next week is the half way point from the cycle low to the next projected high, a good point to look to see if prices are going to use the cycle inflections in a low to low fashion.

Copper Update (Futures and a mining ETF)

I relatively recently updated the copper futures charts as requested by a subscriber. At that time, my view was that copper was moving down in the last leg of wave (a) down from the high from late last year. I now think that (a) may be complete and ready to embark on a few months of choppy retrace up. Below you will find monthly and weekly copper futures charts and also monthly and weekly charts of a copper mining ETF (COPX).

The Week Ahead 2018-08-19

Bonds may make a deeper correction up over that of current prices but not required as on a lower time frame there is resist being tested now. That resist has caused a doji to form on the weekly bar last week.

The Week Ahead 2018-08-12

The strength of the move up in bonds last week argues that the alternate count from last week, where a 'b' wave low was being set, is in fact playing out. That means there should be more to the rally for the next couple weeks to test 146^18 or 147^25.

The Week Ahead 2018-08-05

As I mentioned last week, it does bother me that shorting bonds is a popular trade but that is normal for a third wave. If bonds fail to drop under the May low in the next couple months, than the alternate count is in force and can result in a bounce into the end of the year.

Copper Futures Update

By request, refreshing the copper analysis. Copper has been falling in line with the forecast from late last year. I think this is probably the first move down in wave [b] or [ii].

E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures

The upward form up from 2016 and 2009 in NQ should nearly be complete. The question now is if the impulse up from the consolidation early this year is complete. I'd say the minimum requirements are now met at the last high in late July. Following is the weekly chart. I will add two different daily charts later that address two possibilities, a simple impulse up and an ending diagonal. When I add the daily charts, I'll add a note to the top of the post to notify you.

Yen Futures Update

I have reworked my EW count in the Yen to be that of a triangle wave [iv] that needs one more wave up in (e) to complete. The alternate is that wave [iv] was set early this year and prices are set to bounce in wave (ii) of an ending diagonal [v].

The Week Ahead 2018-07-29

This week is busy on the scheduled economic news front with emphasis on the FOMC on Wednesday afternoon and the NFP Friday morning.

iShares 20+ Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

TLT has been trading in a tight range for the last several months, making short stabs at breaking lower but finding support at tests of prior swing lows. I lean to support failing over the next several months and pushing for a rough support area of 112.00 to 110.

Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Update

The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is very late in the advance from the 2016 and likely the 2009 low as well. It is aggressive to sell to short but certainly makes sense to lock in profits especially if you went long or added in the consolidation earlier this year.

The Week Ahead 2018-07-22

If bonds are down in a third wave lower, bond prices should be heavy into the end of the year and take a shot at a new low for the year. If the alternate is in force, prices will stabilize above the low of the year and bounce into wave (ii) resistance again late in the year. Put another way, the question at hand is if the dominant cycle inverts and results in lower prices at the end of the year or if the polarity stays intact and drags bond prices up after a short term, several weeks to a couple month, pullback. I lean toward the former over the latter. We will see what it looks like in late September or October.

The Week Ahead 2018-07-15

For the last couple weeks I have been looking for a reversal lower in bonds but I am begging to wonder if they hold or even rise a bit more into the next FOMC meeting which is August 1st. My preferred scenario is one where the dominant cycle inverts and leads to a move lower into the end of the year.

The Week Ahead 2018-07-08

Weekly bonds tested the 146^27 resistance level last week while the weekly dominant cycle is signaling a possible inflection and the adaptive CCI is about to have a zero line test. All the above suggest that the move up from May is in danger of ending soon and resuming the trend lower. The alternate is that this bounce is only the first wave up in (ii) and will become more complex later in the year retesting resistance after moving down for a month or two.

The Week Ahead 2018-07-01

Changing up the order I look at charts to an alphabetical order to optimize my workflow just a bit. Don't worry, we will get the S&P 500, it will just be at the end.

The Week Ahead 2018-06-24

The grand theme that I have been operating under is that the S&P 500 and US equity indexes in general should have a rise into middle of June at a minimum and perhaps into the next cycle inflection at the end of August. If the S&P 500 had a completed five wave impulse to a test of or new high with this cyclic positioning, I would be claiming a high was being set. The wrinkle in the plan is that we don't have a test of the high nor a very satisfying formation. Up to this point I've been pounding the table for the prospects for higher but I'm going to pull in my horns a bit now. I still think it wise to allow for higher but prudent to manage any long positions you may have. After all, the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 have made new highs over that of early this year and wouldn't be shocking to have intermarket divergences at the top.

The Week Ahead 2018-06-17

The equity markets took the FOMC rate hike well which I consider a positive for eventually getting a test or marginal new high in the S&P500. That said, it is worthwhile noting that the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 have already made new highs over that of January this year satisfying the macro picture for a new high before a more serious correction process to begin. It also would not be shocking to see intermarket divergence where some indices make new highs and others make lower highs right before a serious downturn. Net, I think there is room for the equity market to extend but it is late in the game.

The Week Ahead 2018-06-11

This week is full of events that could either push the equity markets higher or pull the rug out from under them, the Singapore summit on Tuesday, FOMC on Wednesday, and ECB Thursday morning. My base hypothesis is the wheels will remain on even with a rate hike by the FOMC as long as it is accompanied by language that does not sound too hawkish for further hikes this year.

iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ)

By request, here is a look at the ETF that covers Brazilian equity. Looking at the weekly chart below, you will see that I am calling the move from the 2008 high to the early 2016 low a completed three wave corrective structure. Up from the 2016 low, I think you can call that an impulse up for [i] or [a]. The current swing down this year should only be the first move down in a three wave formation for [ii] or [b]. Prices have bounced from a Gann related support at 31.37 though I favor a test of that low or a new low before the impulse is complete. The idea of a new low in (a) is alive as long a the bounce stays under Fib resists at 35.16 and 37.62.

Brazilian Real Futures

I've been asked to look at Brazilian equities and will do so over the weekend, but thought some of you may find this interesting to tide you over till then. I had been working on this since it has been in the news. The Brazilian Real has been bouncing today off of support today. I don't know if the bounce will end up being a wave (ii) or (iv) as I can argue for either but certainly think it isn't something to short until up against 0.2775.

The Week Ahead 2018-06-03

The S&P 500 dropped a bit lower at the beginning of last week to test the broken trend line and climbed up out of the hole the rest of the week. I see this as a positive development that should result in prices moving upward this week to new post May 4th highs. The main theme is higher into the middle of this month to the next FOMC meeting. Next goal should be to aim for 2794 SPX.

British Pound Futures and ETF Update

Primary view is that GBP futures are in the first stages of a move that should test or exceed the 2017 low. A monthly chart for perspective is below.