My premium content

Morning & evening updates

We chart the S&P 500, crude oil, the Euro, Dollar Index, treasury bonds, and gold, typically with a morning and evening post for every trading day.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-01-23

The small wave 'b' bounce in bonds appears to still be ongoing. For now 145^14 resistance is holding but a test of 146^01 is possible.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-01-22

Nice start to a bounce in bonds today as they tested 145^14 before easing back to the moving averages. The 'b' wave need not retrace that much in price, in can be done in time by travelling sideways.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-01-21

Still looks like bonds could use several days of bounce or sideways in a 'b' wave before falling deeper under the daily moving averages.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-01-16

Bonds may have completed the first part of the expected (b) wave lower and now working on a wave 'b' bounce. Initial resistance at 145^26 and 146^10.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-01-15

Bonds thus far are trapped between the daily moving averages and 145^29. I think it likely that there will be a poke under the moving averages to be followed by a bounce that retests the break.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-01-14

Bonds came through with the tiny bounce to test 146^12 so now looking lower to 144^15 or 143^31 but need the moving averages to fail as support.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-01-11

Bonds bounced to the minimum amount one could expect from the moving averages today at 145^29. It is possible that prices fall from here to a new low but it is better to give it a chance to test 146^12.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-01-10

Bonds did dip a little lower as I mentioned in the morning but should expect to see a modest bounce from the interaction with the moving averages on this first test.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-01-09

Bonds did bounce a bit as expected from 145^21 and the moving averages. Allow for more of a bounce before attempting to drop under the moving averages.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-01-08

Bonds stayed on plan today by moving lower to just above145^21. A little lower to test 144^30 is possible but one should expect prices to firm up before long and instigate a small bounce.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-01-03

I've made some slight modifications for my wave v of (a) targets in bonds since I moved the location of iv up to the December consolidation. Both weekly and daily cycles suggest a swing high is being set nearby. First step in turning lower is prices dropping under old resistance at 147^31 and next the smallest of retrace targets of 147^07.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-01-02

Bonds began to retrace intraday but advanced toward the next relevant Fib extension of 148^02 late in the day. The longer of the dominant daily cycles is suggesting that the upward trajectory should be nearing an end but probably still too aggressive to outright short aside from an aggressive intraday trade near resistance.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2018-12-31

Tomorrow is a holiday thus there will not be any posts tomorrow. Back to a normal schedule Wednesday morning. Happy New Year to all of you. On to charts.

Weekly updates & other posts

(Public posts are included on this page too.)

The Week Ahead 2018-08-19

Bonds may make a deeper correction up over that of current prices but not required as on a lower time frame there is resist being tested now. That resist has caused a doji to form on the weekly bar last week.

The Week Ahead 2018-08-12

The strength of the move up in bonds last week argues that the alternate count from last week, where a 'b' wave low was being set, is in fact playing out. That means there should be more to the rally for the next couple weeks to test 146^18 or 147^25.

The Week Ahead 2018-08-05

As I mentioned last week, it does bother me that shorting bonds is a popular trade but that is normal for a third wave. If bonds fail to drop under the May low in the next couple months, than the alternate count is in force and can result in a bounce into the end of the year.

Copper Futures Update

By request, refreshing the copper analysis. Copper has been falling in line with the forecast from late last year. I think this is probably the first move down in wave [b] or [ii].

E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures

The upward form up from 2016 and 2009 in NQ should nearly be complete. The question now is if the impulse up from the consolidation early this year is complete. I'd say the minimum requirements are now met at the last high in late July. Following is the weekly chart. I will add two different daily charts later that address two possibilities, a simple impulse up and an ending diagonal. When I add the daily charts, I'll add a note to the top of the post to notify you.

Yen Futures Update

I have reworked my EW count in the Yen to be that of a triangle wave [iv] that needs one more wave up in (e) to complete. The alternate is that wave [iv] was set early this year and prices are set to bounce in wave (ii) of an ending diagonal [v].

The Week Ahead 2018-07-29

This week is busy on the scheduled economic news front with emphasis on the FOMC on Wednesday afternoon and the NFP Friday morning.

iShares 20+ Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

TLT has been trading in a tight range for the last several months, making short stabs at breaking lower but finding support at tests of prior swing lows. I lean to support failing over the next several months and pushing for a rough support area of 112.00 to 110.

Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Update

The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is very late in the advance from the 2016 and likely the 2009 low as well. It is aggressive to sell to short but certainly makes sense to lock in profits especially if you went long or added in the consolidation earlier this year.

The Week Ahead 2018-07-22

If bonds are down in a third wave lower, bond prices should be heavy into the end of the year and take a shot at a new low for the year. If the alternate is in force, prices will stabilize above the low of the year and bounce into wave (ii) resistance again late in the year. Put another way, the question at hand is if the dominant cycle inverts and results in lower prices at the end of the year or if the polarity stays intact and drags bond prices up after a short term, several weeks to a couple month, pullback. I lean toward the former over the latter. We will see what it looks like in late September or October.

The Week Ahead 2018-07-15

For the last couple weeks I have been looking for a reversal lower in bonds but I am begging to wonder if they hold or even rise a bit more into the next FOMC meeting which is August 1st. My preferred scenario is one where the dominant cycle inverts and leads to a move lower into the end of the year.

The Week Ahead 2018-07-08

Weekly bonds tested the 146^27 resistance level last week while the weekly dominant cycle is signaling a possible inflection and the adaptive CCI is about to have a zero line test. All the above suggest that the move up from May is in danger of ending soon and resuming the trend lower. The alternate is that this bounce is only the first wave up in (ii) and will become more complex later in the year retesting resistance after moving down for a month or two.

The Week Ahead 2018-07-01

Changing up the order I look at charts to an alphabetical order to optimize my workflow just a bit. Don't worry, we will get the S&P 500, it will just be at the end.

The Week Ahead 2018-06-24

The grand theme that I have been operating under is that the S&P 500 and US equity indexes in general should have a rise into middle of June at a minimum and perhaps into the next cycle inflection at the end of August. If the S&P 500 had a completed five wave impulse to a test of or new high with this cyclic positioning, I would be claiming a high was being set. The wrinkle in the plan is that we don't have a test of the high nor a very satisfying formation. Up to this point I've been pounding the table for the prospects for higher but I'm going to pull in my horns a bit now. I still think it wise to allow for higher but prudent to manage any long positions you may have. After all, the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 have made new highs over that of early this year and wouldn't be shocking to have intermarket divergences at the top.

The Week Ahead 2018-06-17

The equity markets took the FOMC rate hike well which I consider a positive for eventually getting a test or marginal new high in the S&P500. That said, it is worthwhile noting that the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 have already made new highs over that of January this year satisfying the macro picture for a new high before a more serious correction process to begin. It also would not be shocking to see intermarket divergence where some indices make new highs and others make lower highs right before a serious downturn. Net, I think there is room for the equity market to extend but it is late in the game.

The Week Ahead 2018-06-11

This week is full of events that could either push the equity markets higher or pull the rug out from under them, the Singapore summit on Tuesday, FOMC on Wednesday, and ECB Thursday morning. My base hypothesis is the wheels will remain on even with a rate hike by the FOMC as long as it is accompanied by language that does not sound too hawkish for further hikes this year.

iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ)

By request, here is a look at the ETF that covers Brazilian equity. Looking at the weekly chart below, you will see that I am calling the move from the 2008 high to the early 2016 low a completed three wave corrective structure. Up from the 2016 low, I think you can call that an impulse up for [i] or [a]. The current swing down this year should only be the first move down in a three wave formation for [ii] or [b]. Prices have bounced from a Gann related support at 31.37 though I favor a test of that low or a new low before the impulse is complete. The idea of a new low in (a) is alive as long a the bounce stays under Fib resists at 35.16 and 37.62.

Brazilian Real Futures

I've been asked to look at Brazilian equities and will do so over the weekend, but thought some of you may find this interesting to tide you over till then. I had been working on this since it has been in the news. The Brazilian Real has been bouncing today off of support today. I don't know if the bounce will end up being a wave (ii) or (iv) as I can argue for either but certainly think it isn't something to short until up against 0.2775.

The Week Ahead 2018-06-03

The S&P 500 dropped a bit lower at the beginning of last week to test the broken trend line and climbed up out of the hole the rest of the week. I see this as a positive development that should result in prices moving upward this week to new post May 4th highs. The main theme is higher into the middle of this month to the next FOMC meeting. Next goal should be to aim for 2794 SPX.

British Pound Futures and ETF Update

Primary view is that GBP futures are in the first stages of a move that should test or exceed the 2017 low. A monthly chart for perspective is below.

The Week Ahead 2018-05-28

The rest of this holiday is shortened week is filled with a fair amount of scheduled economic news with the NFP on Friday morning as the main event. The primary scenario in the S&P 500 is to see a break up out of the sideways formation of the last few weeks into the middle of next month.

The Week Ahead 2018-05-20

Starting the weekly post with some musings on two ETFs that cover large cap European equities, the SPDR Euro Stoxx 50 ETF (FEZ), and the iShares MSCI EMU ETF (EZU). FEZ is the narrower of the two in that it is only the 50 of the biggest companies in Europe and EMU a more broad selection of large cap but there is obviously a lot of overlap between the two. They both paint a picture that says that valuations of large cap in Europe have not fully recovered from the 2007 financial crises and that they are late in their bounces, in fact, I think you can make a case for European large cap may be over. I'm open to the idea of these beginning to roll over and the US equity indices continue on to a new high later in the year.

MSCI Italy ETF EWI Update

Since Italy has been in the news lately by finally getting a coalition government formed, I thought it a good time to peek at the ETF covering the Italian equity market. As last time I updated this, it still looks like a decade long triangle either finished or nearly so.

Russell 2000 via ETF IWM Update

I know you have had to endure my cautious optimism over the past three months where I have focused on finding lows versus pounding the table to sell on highs but it has borne fruit in Russell 2000 and its corresponding ETF IWM which has pushed to a new high over that of January this year. While I expect it to attempt to reach higher into at least next month if not into August, it is wise to begin to lock in some profit by some combination of raising stops or taking partial profits on this new high. Next harmonic of the wide base channel is at 166.00.

The Week Ahead 2018-05-13

We have had a second solid week up in the US equity indices since the last test of critical support. The fast dominant cycle is in an up phase into middle of next month which supports the theme that between now and the next FOMC meeting will be a period which the equity indices have the lion share of the gain from the wave (iv) low. I'm a little skeptical they get a new high in by then but neither is it impossible. I still favor the equity indices holding up into the next cycle inflection in late August.

The Week Ahead 2018-05-06

I think the main event that took place last week for the US equity indices was that the 50% extension of the channel in the New York Composite held. The low last week is a good candidate for a wave (iv) low and now looking for a rise for the next month at a minimum if not into the summer. I'd like to see a new high but I can live with a truncation or intermarket divergences. This week, the goal is to not give up much of the gain from last Friday and attack the April high.

The Week Ahead 2018-04-29

This week will be heavy on economic data with the standout items being the FOMC statement Wednesday afternoon and the NFP Friday morning. Because of this, I am thinking the easiest gains on the week will be early, Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday afternoon and/or Thursday might turn into a type of consolidation waiting for the Friday news.

The Week Ahead 2018-04-22

I want to start with the Dollar Index this week as I think it is on the verge of poking over 90.51 causing a decent amount of short covering to kick in and the monthly and weekly dominant cycles should help it along. Worth noting that the ECB press conference is Thursday morning so no doubt could function as a catalyst to get this started. Monthly and weekly charts below.

The Week Ahead 2018-04-15

I did a little work on the big picture in the QQQ's, the ETF for the Nasdaq 100 index, today so that is a good starting off point for this review of the big picture for this week.

The Week Ahead 2018-04-08

US equity indices gave back gains made in the first part of last week at the end on increased tariff rhetoric but held above important areas. I know that it may be frustrating that I am not on the sky is falling bandwagon but I still think there is a good chance that the wave (iv) correction ended and we start a rise from this area for a couple months. Don't get me wrong, I think the market is headed for some very turbulent times but I don't think we have seen the high yet. We will see if they can hold steady at the start of the week and not be shocked by the FOMC minutes Wednesday afternoon. Let's start off with a bonus chart of sorts, a weekly chart of the ETF for the Russell 2000, IWM. It is resting on the top of the wave (iv) target area now and has the adaptive CCI positioned at a zero line test.

The Week Ahead 2018-04-01

The S&P 500 held important support last week from both a typical 'c' wave target and a trend line that has proven to be important over the last couple years. If that area holds till the NFP on Friday, the odds that wave 'c of (iv)' has been set go way up. One thing of interest on the weekly chart below is that the adaptive CCI is nearing zero after an extended time above it, which is typical fourth wave behavior.

The Week Ahead 2018-03-25

The 'c of (iv)' in the US equity indexes is well underway and can complete in the holiday shortened week.

The Week Ahead 2018-03-18

The main event for news this week is the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday at 14:00 followed by the press conference at 14:30. It is typical for the equity markets to rise into the FOMC meetings thus that will be the main game plan going into middle of the week. It is possible that the 'b of (iv)' has been set in SPX last week but still think we see a modest high over that of last week.

Crude Oil and ETF USO Update

I was working on the ETF that tracks crude oil, (USO), and have decided to promote what I had as an alternate count in crude to the primary, that there is one more high needed to complete a five wave sequence up from the low from last year.

Dollar Index monthly/weekly Update

The main hypothesis is that the DX rise up from 2008 is not yet complete and can accommodate at least one more high over that of the 2017 high. Why do I push back on the idea of a DX high being in and the first impulse down complete or nearly so? Two reasons. One, the move up from the May 2016 low does not look like a well formed impulse but more like a three which is more consistent with a (b) wave high. Two, both monthly and weekly cycles suggest a pretty significant low and a into 2019-2020. I'll even add a third, that the correction from 2012 to 2014 lasted 22 months, and the correction from the 2015 high marked [iii], to the low last months was 35 months, about as close as you can get to 1.618 expansion in time as you can get thus having price and time pointing to a significant low.

British Pound Update via ETF (FXB)

The British Pound ETF (FXB) is assumed to be forming a wave [iv] like most of the major USD crosses. The move up from the early 2017 low has stalled against a possible wave [iv] target but has not quite pushed low enough to break the uptrend.