My premium content

Morning & evening updates

We chart the S&P 500, crude oil, the Euro, Dollar Index, treasury bonds, and gold, typically with a morning and evening post for every trading day.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-27

Bonds bounced off of support at 165^08 which means another swing high is viable around 168^08. A new high will bring the 9-5 study one step away from an ideal exhaustion signal. Given the 9-5 study and the cycle, I still think a reversal is near.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-26

Bonds reversed from the overnight high and are just under prior resistance at 165^08. Primary view is that we had wave (a) of ending diagonal [v] set overnight and in the early stages of wave 'a of (b)' down. First major step for bond bears is to drop under 163^15 and the daily moving averages which should catch up to the support zone tomorrow or Wednesday.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-22

Bonds finally came through with falling away from 165^08 and are now nearing first support at 162^31. Prefer first support fail and test 161^23 but probably smart to manage if short. Expect bulls to try to bounce it up from one of the two supports.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-21

Little change in bonds as they are still being held down by 165^08 but prices have not yet fallen away from resist to test 161^23 and the daily moving averages.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-20

Bonds for the most part traded in the range from yesterday. 165^08 held as resist today and likely will tomorrow as well, up until the 14:00 FOMC minutes anyway. At that point, they either decide to press over and try for a modest new high, not crazy about this option but possible, or reject 165^08 and drop to test 162^31 or 161^23 and the daily moving averages.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-19

The drop under 165^08 means at a minimum a small degree fourth is forming before pushing to yet another swing high. Support for wave (IV) at 162^31 and 161^23. Under 161^23 would be confirmation that wave 'a of (b) of ending diagonal [v]' lower is taking place.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-15

Bonds pushed to the next target at 166^31 today. Now to see if they pause and continue up or my preferred view, that they reverse lower from this area.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-14

Bonds pushed to a new all time high today invalidated the wave [ii] thus promoting the alternate of a wave [v] of an ending diagonal. Next price target is higher at 166^31 at which point we will see how much retrace we get.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-12

My idea of a lower high in bonds is in danger. Bond prices are rising from a test of support in what appears to be [V] of v of (c). If that terminates under 164^28, it will be for a wave [ii], if a new high, [v] of the ending diagonal.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-08

Bonds had a steep decline to test important support at 160^10 and rose from it today. Now there is resist at 162^23 which could cause a retest of support. As long as 160^10 holds as support, expect a retest of Wednesday high if not poke slightly over it.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-07

Pretty impressive rise and fall in bonds today. It should be at least a wave [III] of v of (c) of [ii] high though if you squint you could call it all of wave [ii]. For now, expect a retrace to 161^19 or 160^10. If prices drop under 160^10, will work under the assumption wave [ii] was set.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-06

Bonds continued their advance today to reach for the next Gann resistance at 162^08. Note that there is a projected cycle high tomorrow and the Lomb Periodogram also forecasts a high in this area. Also, the 9-5 study is one bar off from an ideal exhaustion signal tomorrow. Should I give up on the lower high wave [II] idea given that we are only about three handles short of a new high? I'm sticking with the ending diagonal count that has served me for many years until wrong, and even then will see it as an ending diagonal that grew. From a practical perspective it doesn't matter much since I doubt there is a truly good fade till September at the earliest the way bonds have been behaving for the last five days.

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2019-08-05

The bond rise should slow down and undergo a retrace against resist at 161^19 or 162^08. Support for the retrace at 159^18 and 158^15.

Weekly updates & other posts

(Public posts are included on this page too.)

The Week Ahead 2019-05-06

Well, interesting start on the week as the trade news has dropped the S&P futures 50 points and bonds up a handle as each jumps in the direction according to forecast.

The Week Ahead: 2019-04-28

Second week of bonds holding support at 146^29 bodes well for a rise into July or August for wave (c) of [ii].

The Week Ahead: 2019-04-21

Bonds trying to regain its footing against 146^29. I put more emphasis on the longer cycle on this chart which continues to climb into August over the shorter cycle which is topping out now.

AT&T Update 2019-04-21

My power went down for about an hour last week and prompted to pick a book off my bookshelf to read by the window till the power came back on. After the power came back up, I had asked in the chat room if there was any favorite stock that anyone wanted me to look at with through the lens of a technique that I just re-read about. AT&T (T) was suggested so below are my thoughts on (T) and some analysis using a Gann timing technique.

The Week Ahead: 2019-04-14

Tricky position in bonds as we are approaching the next weekly cycle inflection. I prefer that to be used as either a wave iv or as 'c of (b)' both of which call for higher bond prices over the next several months.

The Week Ahead: 2019-04-07

Before looking at the weekly bond chart, how about a peek at the monthly 30 year yield chart. The dominant cycle on this chart suggests a low in yields for the year being set in the next few months. This is compatible with the bond forecast.

Natural Gas via UNG Update 2019-04-07

UNG has dropped from January 16th and from the next pop up in early March which is consistent with the forecast for lower from a wave iv bounce. Both weekly and daily cycles suggest an inflection point is near but price is not as deep as I'd like it. Since we now have prices back into the range UNG was in for much of 2018, I'm not confident in much lower prices but neither can I say lower is impossible. Disclosure, Natural Gas is my kryptonite, it is the market I have the most difficult time with, so take this accordingly, but I think we are in an area where a long trader can begin to accumulate.

The Week Ahead: 2019-03-31

Bonds appear ready to enter a couple weeks of correction before rising in one last impulse to finish (c) of [ii] up.

The Week Ahead 2019-03-25

I've decided to relent and move (b) to the low of the three month consolidation in bonds and thus looking higher for (c) of [ii]. The next ideal cycle inflection is April 12th so plenty of time for (c) to stretch a bit higher.

The Week Ahead 2019-03-17

I still like the idea that the (a) wave up in the bonds off the low is in but can live with 'b of (b)' testing or even exceeding the high as an alternate. I have included the monthly line on close chart to put things in perspective.

Newsletter: Yen forecast – special extended version

This post with exclusive charts and content is just for readers of our emailed newsletter. It shows how the Yen and the related ETF appear to be on the verge of breaking out of a multi-year triangle...

The Week Ahead 2019-03-10

I've stared at the bonds charts on and off for a few hours and is slowing me up getting this post off the ground. Maybe I should just put my thoughts to bits and explain what I have been thinking about.

Copper Update 2019-03-10

Quick update on copper. Copper has softened against resist and either set a (b) wave high or 'a of a more complex (b)'. Looking at a daily chart there is some wiggle room for a modest new high in the short term if they react strongly to support at 2.88. I have also included a chart of the copper mining ETF COPX so as to have a visual of the possible complex (b) wave alternate.

Natural Gas via UNG 2019-03-10

Back when I last updated UNG charts, I thought a bounce was due and in fact one has taken place. The question now is, was the low in February the end of the pattern down from the November high from last year or is there one more low left? I favor the latter because fourth waves typically have a complex wave form and we have yet to a new low or test of the 2017 low. For timing, thinking the best time for a low is late March or early April, even it turns out to be a higher low.

The Week Ahead 2019-03-03

Bonds are closing in on a (b) wave low over the next few weeks. There may be a short term bounce against 143^20 but as long as bond prices remain under 144^31 prefer lower to the next weekly support at 142^01 or a daily target of 141^30.

Yen Futures & Yen ETF FXY 2019-03-03

When I last posted charts on Japanese Yen, I was looking for a bounce up from a possible (d) wave low of a triangle [iv]. It looks like the last wave of that triangle, wave (e), completed at the start of this year. Cycles suggest wave [v] down is in progress and could last till August of this year

The Week Ahead 2019-02-24

Bonds should at least eventually retest 143^30 before advancing in the third part of a wave [II] later this year. In the shorter term, it is not clear if 'b of (b)' is complete as there was a bounce...

Copper Update: 2019-02-22

In the short term copper has advanced as I laid out in the last daily chart though reaching initial short term targets now so I thought I would give an update. Big picture, this is either working on a (b) wave or the first step up in a (b) wave depending on where you place the (a) wave low.

The Week Ahead: 2019-02-18

Not much change in bonds. Looks like the 'b of (b)' is still in development. Thinking it best to allow for 147^22 to be tested this week. If at the end of the week bonds are still held back by 147^02, then that might be it.

Copper Update 2019-02-17

Since the middle of last year, my view has been that copper needs to bounce in a (b) wave as preparation for rolling down again in a (c) wave. Copper is now at an initial target for 'c of (b)' at 2.85. When dropping down to a daily chart, you can make a case for a little push up for one more wave up so as to get a five count up from the early January low. Once copper does roll lower, if it makes a higher low to the 2016 low, it will qualify as both a wave [b] or [ii]. If it eventually makes a new low to the 2016 low, it will be valid as a [b] wave low.

The Week Ahead 2019-02-10

The 'b of (b)' in bonds is still developing as bonds were unable to break under the daily moving averages early last week. The overall plan is to get a choppy retrace from the high early in January to next month or early April before advancing again into July for a wave [ii].

Natural Gas via UNG Update

When I last posted a UNG chart about two weeks ago, my assumption was that a wave iv bounce was forming against 30.08. As it turns out, that resist was not challenged again and prices have continued to fall. That said, I think it might be jumping the gun to say that UNG is now down in 'v of (iv)' though that is the alternate. The primary I am running with is that this drop is '[B] of iv' and due soon for a move up in '[C] of iv'. Targets for iv are at 26.71 and 29.13. As for timing, beginning to mid April looks appealing for the 'v of (v)' low. Weekly and daily charts below.

The Week Ahead: 2019-02-03

A case can be made that bonds have completed 'b of (b)' and now ready to decline in 'c of (b)'.

The Week Ahead 2019-01-27

Bonds are about halfway in the development of a (b) wave down from the (a) wave high at the start of the year. I expect (b) to be a complex choppy formation. In the short term bonds can trade a little lower but overall thinking somewhat sideways into mid February.

The Week Ahead 2019-01-20

Monday is a US holiday thus will not post in the morning though will post daily charts in the late afternoon/early evening. Also had a request to follow natural gas again which I will do, posting on it once a month.

The Week Ahead 2019-01-13

The fast dominant cycle is at a crest in weekly bonds and prices have been attempting to reject 148^31 for the last two weeks. I can't say it is impossible to retest resist but provisionally calling wave (a) up complete. Next support is at 143^30. I think the next major timing in bonds will be in the summer around July or August so prefer to see several months of choppy movement lower followed by a summer rally to complete (c) of [ii].

The Week Ahead 2019-01-06

Bonds tested a Gann related resist this week at 148^31 when both weekly and daily cycles suggest a cycle high making it a candidate for the (a) high that I have been looking for. If wave (a) is in, the retrace in (b) should take the form of a choppy three wave move over the next few months.

The Week Ahead 2018-12-31

The ideal dominant cycle in bonds is topping out this week. I continue to see this as wave (a) of [ii] complete or nearly complete. Crude is in a tough spot here. Certainly it is deeply oversold and...

The Week Ahead: 2018-12-23

Monday has an early close and Tuesday is closed for the holiday. Imagine that volume is thin till the first full week in January as many take time off till then.

The Week Ahead 2018-12-17

The defining item this week will be the FOMC statement and press conference on Wednesday as traders look for clues of a halt to the rate hikes in 2019.

Bradley Siderograph – Late 2018 into 2019

The Bradley Siderograph is timing model for stock market turns that while no means perfect is worth keeping an eye on. Main interest is in the inflection points on the graph, not the direction or magnitude of change. An example of this is that the May 23rd 2018 swing in the Bradley was the biggest swing in the graph but was weak but the next tiny inflection at the end of June resulted in a major low in equity prices and big rally. Below you will see a chart with the Dow and Bradley model with dates of the next inflections out into fall of next year. Of note is then next two, December 20th and January 16th, of which I think December 20th is more important since it is a day after the next FOMC meeting.