Our message to newsletter readers in July was to watch for an inflection and possible reversal in two international ETFs. That plan appears to be working so far, and one of the funds might already have begun forming a bearish impulse.
along with cycles analysis
The upward correction probably won’t shoot much higher
Time for bears to manage positions
Since Italy has been in the news lately by finally getting a coalition government formed, I thought it a good time to peek at the ETF covering the Italian equity market. As last time I updated this, it still looks like a decade long triangle either finished or nearly so.
Since there are elections coming up this weekend in Italy, thought it would be a good time to update the big picture charts for this ETF. I have interest in it as it has formed a classic triangle from the 2009 low and may have completed at the start of this year. I also think it can turn into a canary in the mine, a harbinger for the future.
Signs that this triangle pattern can break downward
I find the iShares MSCI Italy ETF interesting for two reasons. One, so far, it is a textbook example of a triangle formation that has spanned nearly nine years. Two, if the triangle pattern holds and the Italian markets turn down, could that be a precursor to other European equity markets topping and even mark a turning point in the Euro?
I don’t know if the triangle pattern will hold or if it will be an early warning to other problems on the continent, but it does look like a trading opportunity is nearby.