The MSCI German ETF (EWG) has what is thus far a corrective structure up from 2009 to 2014 and a possible ugly leading diagonal down to the 2016. From there, the move up looks like a three into a standard deep retrace value. This area is also roughly a test of the 2000 high.

Is it too early to say it is ready for a major reversal but looks like a pause is due at a minimum.


At the weekly level, the same issue here as in the domestic US indices, is the count up from late last year a completed five wave move or is it a three? Not clear but it is interesting that EWG gapped up over the 1×1 into the 1×1.27 at 30.14 which is also a harmonic of the modified Schiff channel up from 2009. My suspicion is that there will be some backfill of the gap shortly. If 28.97 holds as support, another test of resist or marginal new high is possible into June. If price fills the gap and then uses 89.87 as resistance on a bounce, a case can be made that a more substantive correction is starting.