Since there are elections coming up this weekend in Italy, thought it would be a good time to update the big picture charts for this ETF. I have interest in it as it has formed a classic triangle from the 2009 low and may have completed at the start of this year. I also think it can turn into a canary in the mine, a harbinger for the future.
Signs that this triangle pattern can break downward
I find the iShares MSCI Italy ETF interesting for two reasons. One, so far, it is a textbook example of a triangle formation that has spanned nearly nine years. Two, if the triangle pattern holds and the Italian markets turn down, could that be a precursor to other European equity markets topping and even mark a turning point in the Euro?
I don’t know if the triangle pattern will hold or if it will be an early warning to other problems on the continent, but it does look like a trading opportunity is nearby.
Price starting to test the area that could prompt a breakout from the decade-long converging range.
Now that price is testing the first major resistance area, it’s time to reassess the trade.
It was mid-July when we suggested a countertrend trade in the iShares MSCI Italy ETF (symbol EWI). Although the economic news out of Italy at that time was mostly bad, we thought the Elliott wave chart pattern offered reasons to expect at least a modest bounce from support. We then revisited EWI in November.