At the start of 2018, EWI ended wave [e] of a triangle and dropped in the first five wave impulse lower at the end of last year. Since then, EWI has been bouncing in a three wave move for a wave (ii). While having tested a possible target at 28.83 two weeks ago, it strikes me as too aggressive to say that wave ‘c of (ii)’ is complete while above 30.00 as the overhead target tested so far is a bit short of what is typical for a wave (ii).
Treating this overlapping bounce in EWZ up from the low last year as a ‘b’ wave and expect prices to turn down again in an impulse over the next few weeks.
Is it time for the reversal?
What comes next after that 3-wave move?
Time for bears to manage positions
There should be a trade soon
By request, here is a look at the ETF that covers Brazilian equity. Looking at the weekly chart below, you will see that I am calling the move from the 2008 high to the early 2016 low a completed three wave corrective structure. Up from the 2016 low, I think you can call that an impulse up for [i] or [a]. The current swing down this year should only be the first move down in a three wave formation for [ii] or [b]. Prices have bounced from a Gann related support at 31.37 though I favor a test of that low or a new low before the impulse is complete. The idea of a new low in (a) is alive as long a the bounce stays under Fib resists at 35.16 and 37.62.
A downward break out of a decade-long triangle
Since Italy has been in the news lately by finally getting a coalition government formed, I thought it a good time to peek at the ETF covering the Italian equity market. As last time I updated this, it still looks like a decade long triangle either finished or nearly so.
Since there are elections coming up this weekend in Italy, thought it would be a good time to update the big picture charts for this ETF. I have interest in it as it has formed a classic triangle from the 2009 low and may have completed at the start of this year. I also think it can turn into a canary in the mine, a harbinger for the future.