Bonds ran up to next resist at 168^05 today and have been easing back away from it. I rate that as a possible wave [III] high with one more mild pullback and push up to finish wave (a). That said, I can’t really be excited about buying a pullback as you could count the September 2019 high to early January 2020 low as a complex iv moving the fourth over to the January low at which point there are already five waves up to complete (a).
Same general idea that I discussed on the ES chart earlier, prefer lower to create a new low while under 3255 SPX. Over 3259 SPX, odds favor the low is in and to aim higher to test 3282. From 3282 there can still be a deep drop but suspect it would be for a higher low at that point.
While S&P 500 futures are under 3253.75, I favor lower to a new low at 3207.25 or better yet 3192.50 to complete (A) of [IV] down. There is a chance (A) of [IV] completed at the low of the day yesterday and is already trying to turn up but I favor a new low to create divergence in the Adaptive CCI.
I can make the case for a retrace and another high in bonds to complete wave (a) but I can’t be enthusiastic about buying the pullback. Support at 164^10 and 162^26.
Base assumption is that the low near the open is a third wave low and that a fourth wave consolidation will form against 3259 or 3273 SPX before pressing lower toward 3194 tomorrow. If the bounce exceeds 3286, I will have to upgrade the morning low today to that of wave ‘(A) of [IV]’ and now in the early stages of a wave (B) bounce.