Charts added to this post as I complete them. Full post ETA 10:30.
Bonds slipped back today in what may be the start of '[B] of b' down. As a reminder, a new low in [B] would be ok but not required. Resist at 160^28 and 160^06.
Bonds had a nice drop this last week which conforms to the forecast for a wave (b) retrace. Since the FOMC announcement and press conference is on Wednesday afternoon, I suspect we are nearing the end of the first wave of wave (b) at 156^25 or 154^20. Difficult to forecast the end of wave (b), but should make it to at least 150^17. Probably depends on if they intend to only drop into the next cycle inflection in early November, or go for the next in January of next year. I favor the latter but we will see.
As you know, I have been critical of the rise in the Yen over the last month and continued to think it a developing wave [iv] or [b] triangle. Over the last three weeks that has been a strong reaction against resist at 0.009623. Certainly appears that prices are moving down in the early stages of [v] or [c] down out of the triangle. Supports on this chart are Gann based and while I think prices will react to them, it is very speculative at this point estimating where the turns will be in the five wave sequence. It is worth noting that the 'c of (e) of [iv] or [b]' terminated on a cycle inflection which implies a drop to the next in March of next year at a minimum and perhaps out to the following inflection next August.
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