Bonds ran up to next resist at 168^05 today and have been easing back away from it. I rate that as a possible wave [III] high with one more mild pullback and push up to finish wave (a). That said, I can't really be excited about buying a pullback as you could count the September 2019 high to early January 2020 low as a complex iv moving the fourth over to the January low at which point there are already five waves up to complete (a).
Same general idea that I discussed on the ES chart earlier, prefer lower to create a new low while under 3255 SPX. Over 3259 SPX, odds favor the low is in and to aim higher to test 3282. From 3282 there can still be a deep drop but suspect it would be for a higher low at that point.
I'm adjusting my bond count up from the 2018 low from 'a-b' up in 'c of (a)' for a three wave move for (a) to one of an impulse, a five wave move. Note the areas I marked as 1) and 2) for the implications. I just can't go with the retrace from the August high as a wave (b) because it was so shallow which then implies it was a fourth and moving up in the late stages of 'v of (a) of ending diagonal [v]'. Minor target at 165^01 tested already, next at 167^23 though a retest of the prior is good enough. A drop back under previous resist at 162^28 would be first confirmation of falling back in the first swing of (b).
Yen appears to be accelerating lower after the minimal retrace made when I last updated this chart a few weeks ago. I'm assuming this is the early stages of (iii) of [v] or [c] down. Minor support being tested now at 0.008994 though I don't think it will be very firm. Prefer lower targets at 0.008789 or 0.008643 before a more substantial bounce.
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