Dollar Index At Important Juncture

Does it need to test support again?

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Will stocks or bonds stumble first?

One of them is likely to recover its footing

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An avoidable mistake for equity bears

Don’t jump in at the point of maximum fear

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A warning to crude oil bulls

The last high was probably an overshoot

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Some of our recent posts:

The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2018-11-14

Bonds poked up to test resist at 139^07 and fell back to near 138^22 which is near where it opened the day to form a doji candle. That doji forming so near the ideal cycle high implies we could have the lower high set and ready to drop lower. Need under 137^30 as a first step.

The Week Ahead 2018-11-11

Bonds continue to consolidate after having punched under the group of prior lows stretching back into late 2016. I score that as negative in the medium term for bond prices and thus favor lower till at least a new low is made under that of October 12th. At that point we will see if they wish to use the last five weeks of consolidation as a wave ii, as shown on the chart, or a small degree wave four which will then trigger a wave two bounce that again retests the break around 139^26. As far as timing is concerned, I think the next major point is either March or May of next year which leaves us in a conundrum as to whether we fall or rise into said area, or perhaps get some frequency doubling that that allow for more than one change in trend. I'm leaning lower since we are under the prior lows but won't be stubborn about it if they firm up on a new low in December.

Copper Futures and Copper Miners ETF Update

Starting with the copper monthly chart for perspective. Primary thesis is that a large corrective formation completed at the 2016 low and that the climb up to the late 2017 high was the first impulse up from that low. That implies a corrective move lower and my assertion is that copper completed the first move of that correction in the summer of this year and due for a consolidative bounce before dropping in the last leg of the larger correction. I have penciled in the next corrective low to coincide with a cycle low middle of next year at a higher low to that of the 2016 low though a new price extreme in [b] would not break the pattern.

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