In addition to the posts shown below, most Daily Update posts include charts and forecasts for the U.S. Dollar Index and Euro futures.
Yen appears to be accelerating lower after the minimal retrace made when I last updated this chart a few weeks ago. I'm assuming this is the early stages of (iii) of [v] or [c] down. Minor support being tested now at 0.008994 though I don't think it will be very firm. Prefer lower targets at 0.008789 or 0.008643 before a more substantial bounce.
In addition to the GPP and Yen ETF updates in the last Week Ahead post, I have been asked to update the futures as well.
There are already preliminary signs of a breakout
Many traders will be caught on the wrong footing
Cable has been climbing since early September which was consistent with my prior count of a wave (iv) bounce but in October that count started to have problems with overlap. I think the follow EW count looks better and is at an interesting point. Here I am treating the low this year as a (b) wave and expecting a (c) wave advance for wave [iv]. You can plainly see a five wave move up from the low has taken place and now against resistance at 1.3231. At a minimum, bulls should manage, bears can begin to take a position though lower risk, but worse trade location, if they wait for a drop under 1.3028.
Yen has dropped steadily from the wave (e) of a triangle target of 90.41. So far, no complaints as it has been on plan. FXY has tested support at 86.71 with the Lomb pulled down where it is...
GBP has been on plan rising into wave (iv) targets this week. The futures have a little more room to develop if needed but the FXB chart is pretty close to the limit for a wave (iv). I have also added an alternate on the FXB chart where the drop from the wave [iv] high in 2018 is an ending diagonal where the recent low is wave (i) and is in either (ii) or 'a of (ii)' now.
Sterling is dropping from a typical wave (iv) resistance but I doubt wave (iv) is complete as fours are often the most complex patterns. It is conceivable that it runs sideways for months. An alternate would be this is a fourth of lower degree, 'iv', and the next low 'v of (iii)'.
The expected reversal may have begun
As you know, I have been critical of the rise in the Yen over the last month and continued to think it a developing wave [iv] or [b] triangle. Over the last three weeks that has been a strong reaction against resist at 0.009623. Certainly appears that prices are moving down in the early stages of [v] or [c] down out of the triangle. Supports on this chart are Gann based and while I think prices will react to them, it is very speculative at this point estimating where the turns will be in the five wave sequence. It is worth noting that the 'c of (e) of [iv] or [b]' terminated on a cycle inflection which implies a drop to the next in March of next year at a minimum and perhaps out to the following inflection next August.