As expected, bonds have drifted back up to retest resist at 159^24. I favor 159^24 or 160^31 holding as resist and bond prices falling out the bottom of support at 155^11. The Lomb Periodogram suggests bond prices holding up for another week or two before breaking lower.
I’m going to use the weekly UNG chart for the big picture and then switch to the daily natural gas futures chart for the fine details.
I’ve acquired a cold or flu this weekend and feeling lousy. I ask your pardon if my comments on these charts is a little more curt than normal.
Since bonds have held the 155^11 support for the last three weeks, I’m now leaning toward a retest of resist, say 159^24, before breaking lower in the spring.
Not much change last week in bonds as it traded in the range of the week before and is still holding above the 155^11 support. I suspect a week or two of bounce before breaking lower to at least test 152^25. This correction still strikes me as a little shallow for ‘c of (b)’ to be complete. I also think the cycles support lower for at least another month.
Bonds have been trapped between resist at 159^24 and support at 155^11. I can’t guarantee resist will not be tested again before dropping through 155^11 and at least testing 152^25. As it stands, this is too shallow to my eye for wave ‘c of (b)’ to be complete and cycles suggest the inflection is late January of next year at the earliest.
Cable has been climbing since early September which was consistent with my prior count of a wave (iv) bounce but in October that count started to have problems with overlap. I think the follow EW count looks better and is at an interesting point. Here I am treating the low this year as a (b) wave and expecting a (c) wave advance for wave [iv]. You can plainly see a five wave move up from the low has taken place and now against resistance at 1.3231. At a minimum, bulls should manage, bears can begin to take a position though lower risk, but worse trade location, if they wait for a drop under 1.3028.
159^24 continues to hold as overhead resist in bonds but we have yet to see them really drop away. Doubt there is much movement till after the FOMC meeting this week. I’d really like to see a test of at least 152^25 in February or March of next year.
Bonds have been spending the last couple weeks bouncing from the most shallow of targets for c of (b). I still think it falls lower into the end of the year at a minimum and perhaps out to March.