Cycles and the 9-5 study suggest that bonds are ripe for a reversal. At a lower time frame, it is possible the argue for one last small down and up move but very late in the game as price has reached the next set of resist at 155^04 to 155^21.
Bonds moved from the first target zone to the next last week. Now have an exhaustion signal when the dominant short term weekly cycle it cresting. The longer cycle still has some time left in it but the tailwind should be diminishing.
When I last wrote on UNG, I was looking for a possible truncated wave (v) low in conjunction with a projected cycle low for the year. Prices did in fact climb but was rejected by initial resist at 23.31. Despite that, the overall forecast for a possible low for the year in development is the same.
Before looking at the weekly bond chart, I want to draw your attention the this monthly chart of the 30 year yields. Yields finally dropped as expected to a new low on the year and at the top target of 27.61. The next target lower is 26.70 but no guarantee it will reach it. My hypothesis is that we are within a in a few month window that sets the low in yields, and high in bonds, for the year.
Bonds are close to retesting the March high and hence may slow or consolidate a bit but think the bias remains up into at least next month, maybe out to August.
Plan is for bonds to rise a bit more into July or August to finish wave [ii].
The weekly cycle in UNG has lengthened and is now forecasting a low over the next several weeks and rises toward the end of the year. The daily chart has a five wave count down from the wave iv bounce high in March. Prices rising over 23.31 is first confirmation that the low may be set though it is conceivable that the turn up is slow like in mid 2018.
Well, interesting start on the week as the trade news has dropped the S&P futures 50 points and bonds up a handle as each jumps in the direction according to forecast.
Second week of bonds holding support at 146^29 bodes well for a rise into July or August for wave (c) of [ii].
Bonds trying to regain its footing against 146^29. I put more emphasis on the longer cycle on this chart which continues to climb into August over the shorter cycle which is topping out now.