Well, now that bonds moved past the prior high in 2016, what does it mean? It means that the ending diagonal is growing larger and that the move up from the October 2018 low should be comprised of three segments. On the scale of the ending diagonal, spanning ten years, we have yet to see an appropriate sized corrective move for the middle segment of [v], thus must see the current rise as the first segment, (a) of [v].
Bonds have run up to just short of the 2016 but it is holding under it so far. I prefer a lower high to 165^04 but if it pokes to a new high, I will just call this the end of a larger diagonal. Ideally, prices use 162^30 as resistance and fall back to 159^04 or 156^01. Bears need bond prices under 156^01 to take a new high off the table.
Yen has rallied up with gold but I still think the overall Elliott triangle is still valid. It looks like the dominant weekly cycle will be invert and be a high. The ideal cycle infection point is September 13 but we are already in the window. First step for a reversal would be falling under prior resist at 0.009386.
The idea of a lower high in bonds is certainly under stress as bond prices are nearing the 7/8th retrace at 161^09 which is the practical last chance for a wave [ii]. 160^14 which is a fib extension is worth paying attention to early this week.
My contrarian frame of mind has me thinking that GBP is working on a major low. Monthly and weekly charts below.
As you know, I’ve been watching UNG for a possible significant cycle low nearby and expecting a rise into early next year. While prices have slipped a little lower, that is consistent with the main forecast on the daily chart from the last update. UNG is now near weekly and daily supports and is worth monitoring closely.
Very busy week coming up with the FOMC on Wednesday afternoon and the NFP numbers on Friday morning.
Since bonds do not have a clear five wave impulse down from the rejection of 156^14, I think it best to allow for an attempt to retest resist again into the FOMC meeting. Overall the cyclic position suggests the rise up from last year is late in development.
Making a UNG update since I spent time staring at the daily. First, the weekly chart. Nothing new from when I last posted it. I think UNG is trying to feel out for a low in the 62 week cycle. Price needs to be over 21.65 to cause bears to cover.
At the start of 2018, EWI ended wave [e] of a triangle and dropped in the first five wave impulse lower at the end of last year. Since then, EWI has been bouncing in a three wave move for a wave (ii). While having tested a possible target at 28.83 two weeks ago, it strikes me as too aggressive to say that wave ‘c of (ii)’ is complete while above 30.00 as the overhead target tested so far is a bit short of what is typical for a wave (ii).