Base assumption in bonds remains unchanged, that the high of the large ending diagonal is in and now waiting for a lower high to form.
No doubt another crazy week ahead but I still think that crude is nearing a significant low which should help the indices stabilize.
The Fed jumps in early, not waiting till Wednesday, and cuts interest rates. BoJ is also bringing forward their scheduled meeting from later in the week to Monday. No doubt another volatile week.
Certainly going to be an eventful week as the S&P 500 futures are limit down as I type and crude fell through initial supports in the high 30’s and now even slightly under the next major support zone of 32.40 to 31.10.
After this recent rally in Yen I’ve been asked for an update of Yen Futures and the ETF FXY.
I’m going to mix up the order a little this week as I have been working on equity indices this afternoon thus will start with them.
I’m adjusting my bond count up from the 2018 low from ‘a-b’ up in ‘c of (a)’ for a three wave move for (a) to one of an impulse, a five wave move. Note the areas I marked as 1) and 2) for the implications. I just can’t go with the retrace from the August high as a wave (b) because it was so shallow which then implies it was a fourth and moving up in the late stages of ‘v of (a) of ending diagonal [v]’. Minor target at 165^01 tested already, next at 167^23 though a retest of the prior is good enough. A drop back under previous resist at 162^28 would be first confirmation of falling back in the first swing of (b).
Yen appears to be accelerating lower after the minimal retrace made when I last updated this chart a few weeks ago. I’m assuming this is the early stages of (iii) of [v] or [c] down. Minor support being tested now at 0.008994 though I don’t think it will be very firm. Prefer lower targets at 0.008789 or 0.008643 before a more substantial bounce.
Monday is a US holiday thus no posts or chat. Regular posting schedule Tuesday morning.
Bonds are stalling up against resist for a possible lower high, a wave ‘b’, at 163^25. The Lomb Periodogram is projecting a cycle high here which corresponds with a cycle inflection of one of the weekly cycles. Bears need bonds under 161^11 for confirmation of a reversal.