159^24 continues to hold as overhead resist in bonds but we have yet to see them really drop away. Doubt there is much movement till after the FOMC meeting this week. I’d really like to see a test of at least 152^25 in February or March of next year.
Bonds have been spending the last couple weeks bouncing from the most shallow of targets for c of (b). I still think it falls lower into the end of the year at a minimum and perhaps out to March.
I’m looking for a higher low to form in UNG over the next couple weeks for a possible wave ii. The dominant weekly cycle is suggesting lower till the end of the year but I think we are pretty close to a window to shop for a cycle low. The daily chart looks lower to put the final touches of [C] of ii. Since this week is short due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, from a practical sense it makes sense to shop for a low next week.
Bonds spent last week continuing their bounce from the test of the top of the target range for wave (b). I doubt we have seen the low in wave (b) and expect bonds to press lower in future weeks though I can’t guarantee bonds do not challenge overhead resists first, say 161^25.
Bonds bounced last week off the test of 156^01 which is not a problem for the case for lower into late or early next year. Best for bears that the bounce remain under 159^18.
Bonds fell last week staying on plan for lower into the end of year or even out into March of next year. Bond prices are testing the top of the target range for ‘c of (b)’ at 156^01 but I’m not expecting much of a bounce from this level.
Theme in bonds remains lower into March of next year in a ‘c of (b) of ending diagonal [v]’. Near term, think wave ‘[II] of c of (b)’ is forming under 161^25 or 163^03 before pressing lower in ‘[III] of c of (b)’. Probably can use another week or two for [II] to ripen.
Bonds are leaning on support at 159^18. I think it will eventually break under but may not be this week as we have the FOMC on Wednesday and the NFP number on Friday. I think the cycles argue for net lower into early next year at a minimum.
Bonds are sitting on support that may cause a minor bounce but overall expecting lower into the next cycle inflection next February. An alternate count up from wave [IV] could be ‘i-ii-[I]-[II]-[III]-[IV]-[V] for iii’ and now forming ‘iv’ which implies a new high in February for ‘v of (a)’. I’m not that keen on the alternate but something to keep an eye on if prices fail to drop under 159^18 after a small bounce.