Bonds traded in a relatively tight range last week holding just under the prior multi-month range. I think it still reasonable to expect an eventual poke into that range to test at least 180^26 over the next several weeks before reversing lower.
Crude has spent the last few weeks sideways against resist at 39.88. If there is a new high in the swing, I will still pencil it in as a [B] wave high. Possible that the sideways action is wave [IV] and a new high is [V] of i. Net result of a retrace lower is the same in both ideas, this difference being if the decline is a single impulse down in [C] of ii or in a three wave segment, [A]-[B]-[C].
DX tested last chance support for a wave ii last week and had a type of candle conducive to a low. The goal for bulls this week should be to recover and base above 97.92.
Euro attempted to reject resist at 1.1324 last week but couldn’t break under 1.1210. Bears need to push under and preferably accelerate away from 1.1210 this week.
I continue to be skeptical of the move up in gold but it continues to hold up for the moment. I don’t think a new high is a sure thing but certainly possible since 1681.45 held as support two weeks ago. We will see if the fast cycle will drag prices down into the end of August.
The S&P 500 started last week testing support and fought back higher in a bounce. That bounce can continue into the start of this week but I think bears will step in again to attempt to push prices lower in the next leg lower of the expected correction. The faster of the two dominant cycles is starting to roll lower into late August. I don’t think it takes that long for wave ii to complete, more likely that the late August cycle low manifests as a higher low.