In addition to the posts shown below, most Daily Update posts include a chart and forecast for gold futures.
Right now the bearish case looks best
Catching this decline and bounce in stocks might be easier than trading the metal itself.
The wave count that I last had on the big picture in gold just didn't sit well with me and have put some thought into it over the weekend. The overall main and alternate ideas in general are the same, it is more of just a technical wave counting issue.
A sizable correction is due
I went ahead and did the copper analysis for the respective ETN. I've added some additional chart geometry and the Wave 59 9-5 study to the monthly chart but otherwise the story is the same as for copper futures.
Up until the middle of next last month, I had been treating the rise in copper as a deep wave four but I am promoting the alternate to primary, an initial impulse up from the early 2016 low. That does not mean that I changed my mind about this advance ending, but that I have thrown in the towel on expecting a new low on a turn lower.
I have been putting off a bigger picture gold post as I have been reevaluating the big picture EW counts. Let me start with the two scenarios I had been using and move on from there.
I just can't get excited about this move up in copper as being the start of a major break higher. Instead, I still see this as the calm before the storm. Primary count is this being a wave (iv). I've marked the zone of overlap where wave (iv) would be invalidated. I can tolerate a brief spike into that zone but not a close.
I'm skeptical that copper has found a lasting low but has yet to drop impulsively from resistance tested earlier this year. Prices have fallen from the channel and other resistance from February but...
The copper bounce up from early 2016 has stalled out at the top of a channel and leaking lower for the past few months. I am working under the assumption that February 2017 is the end of a...