In addition to the posts shown below, most Daily Update posts include a chart and forecast for gold futures.
Bears need to wait for it to reset first
Starting with the copper monthly chart for perspective. Primary thesis is that a large corrective formation completed at the 2016 low and that the climb up to the late 2017 high was the first impulse up from that low. That implies a corrective move lower and my assertion is that copper completed the first move of that correction in the summer of this year and due for a consolidative bounce before dropping in the last leg of the larger correction. I have penciled in the next corrective low to coincide with a cycle low middle of next year at a higher low to that of the 2016 low though a new price extreme in [b] would not break the pattern.
Here are some potential entry areas
But manage your short positions now
I relatively recently updated the copper futures charts as requested by a subscriber. At that time, my view was that copper was moving down in the last leg of wave (a) down from the high from late last year. I now think that (a) may be complete and ready to embark on a few months of choppy retrace up. Below you will find monthly and weekly copper futures charts and also monthly and weekly charts of a copper mining ETF (COPX).
By request, refreshing the copper analysis. Copper has been falling in line with the forecast from late last year. I think this is probably the first move down in wave [b] or [ii].
In the big picture, either a high is being set soon that results in a significant retrace lower or gold will make a run for mid 1400's if not 1500. Gold has mostly been range bound for the most part of last year and as such I don't see that as terribly bullish. USD has been weak the last year against most crosses and this is the best gold can do?
Right now the bearish case looks best
Catching this decline and bounce in stocks might be easier than trading the metal itself.
The wave count that I last had on the big picture in gold just didn't sit well with me and have put some thought into it over the weekend. The overall main and alternate ideas in general are the same, it is more of just a technical wave counting issue.