UNG has moved up to test the first weekly resist in what looks like an impulsive move and is now retracing. Will be watching 19.98 and 19.21 as possible wave ii support.
Opportunities nearby for bulls
I have been looking for a possible wave (v) low in UNG for the last couple months and it looks like we may have one that sticks. It has spent the last few weeks up from a test, and brief poke under, support at 18.10. Goal now is to establish a five wave move up for an initial impulse up. Resist at 21.81 and 22.89 on the weekly chart. I’m working on the premise that the dominant weekly cycle is inverting and thus for a net rise into the end of the year.
As you know, I’ve been watching UNG for a possible significant cycle low nearby and expecting a rise into early next year. While prices have slipped a little lower, that is consistent with the main forecast on the daily chart from the last update. UNG is now near weekly and daily supports and is worth monitoring closely.
Making a UNG update since I spent time staring at the daily. First, the weekly chart. Nothing new from when I last posted it. I think UNG is trying to feel out for a low in the 62 week cycle. Price needs to be over 21.65 to cause bears to cover.
When I last wrote on UNG, I was looking for a possible truncated wave (v) low in conjunction with a projected cycle low for the year. Prices did in fact climb but was rejected by initial resist at 23.31. Despite that, the overall forecast for a possible low for the year in development is the same.
The weekly cycle in UNG has lengthened and is now forecasting a low over the next several weeks and rises toward the end of the year. The daily chart has a five wave count down from the wave iv bounce high in March. Prices rising over 23.31 is first confirmation that the low may be set though it is conceivable that the turn up is slow like in mid 2018.
UNG has dropped from January 16th and from the next pop up in early March which is consistent with the forecast for lower from a wave iv bounce. Both weekly and daily cycles suggest an inflection point is near but price is not as deep as I’d like it. Since we now have prices back into the range UNG was in for much of 2018, I’m not confident in much lower prices but neither can I say lower is impossible. Disclosure, Natural Gas is my kryptonite, it is the market I have the most difficult time with, so take this accordingly, but I think we are in an area where a long trader can begin to accumulate.
Back when I last updated UNG charts, I thought a bounce was due and in fact one has taken place. The question now is, was the low in February the end of the pattern down from the November high from last year or is there one more low left? I favor the latter because fourth waves typically have a complex wave form and we have yet to a new low or test of the 2017 low. For timing, thinking the best time for a low is late March or early April, even it turns out to be a higher low.