The British Pound appears to be following the script we described in our July post and refined in our October post. The next phase of the Elliott wave pattern should take the form of a bounce or an upward/sideways consolidation, and other technical tools show how far upward that pattern might reach.
It was the first week of August last year when we suggested to readers here that gold had probably reached the end of the rally that had buoyed it since the start of 2016. Soon after our post, futures began a decline that retraced about 75% of the whole rally.
The big-picture pattern in treasury bonds has been working well for several years and has allowed us to predict some major inflections. There are however signs that treasuries and the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) may be ready to move into an entirely new phase. Here we take a quick review of our performance with TLT in 2016 before considering where treasuries should go next.
It was mid-July when we suggested a countertrend trade in the iShares MSCI Italy ETF (symbol EWI). Although the economic news out of Italy at that time was mostly bad, we thought the Elliott wave chart pattern offered reasons to expect at least a modest bounce from support. We then revisited EWI in November.