The expected reversal may have begun
As you know, I have been critical of the rise in the Yen over the last month and continued to think it a developing wave [iv] or [b] triangle. Over the last three weeks that has been a strong reaction against resist at 0.009623. Certainly appears that prices are moving down in the early stages of [v] or [c] down out of the triangle. Supports on this chart are Gann based and while I think prices will react to them, it is very speculative at this point estimating where the turns will be in the five wave sequence. It is worth noting that the ‘c of (e) of [iv] or [b]’ terminated on a cycle inflection which implies a drop to the next in March of next year at a minimum and perhaps out to the following inflection next August.
It might already have begun
It’s already retreating from calculated resistance
Yen has rallied up with gold but I still think the overall Elliott triangle is still valid. It looks like the dominant weekly cycle will be invert and be a high. The ideal cycle infection point is September 13 but we are already in the window. First step for a reversal would be falling under prior resist at 0.009386.
My contrarian frame of mind has me thinking that GBP is working on a major low. Monthly and weekly charts below.
out of an Elliott wave triangle
Traders should watch for a pullback or a breakout
One of the reasons that I have been skeptical about the gold rise is the correlation that it has had with the Japanese yen and I’m still bearish yen as the triangle is still valid here.
Leaving the current station soon