Dollar conditions right for a bounce
Our bullish analysis is a little controversial
Japanese Yen Futures and ETF Update
After this recent rally in Yen I’ve been asked for an update of Yen Futures and the ETF FXY.
Japanese Yen Futures & ETF FXY Update
Yen appears to be accelerating lower after the minimal retrace made when I last updated this chart a few weeks ago. I’m assuming this is the early stages of (iii) of [v] or [c] down. Minor support being tested now at 0.008994 though I don’t think it will be very firm. Prefer lower targets at 0.008789 or 0.008643 before a more substantial bounce.
British Pound & Yen Futures Update
In addition to the GPP and Yen ETF updates in the last Week Ahead post, I have been asked to update the futures as well.
Dollar fund poised to rise
There are already preliminary signs of a breakout
Yen ETF may have started its breakdown
Many traders will be caught on the wrong footing
British Pound Futures Update 2019-12-10
Cable has been climbing since early September which was consistent with my prior count of a wave (iv) bounce but in October that count started to have problems with overlap. I think the follow EW count looks better and is at an interesting point. Here I am treating the low this year as a (b) wave and expecting a (c) wave advance for wave [iv]. You can plainly see a five wave move up from the low has taken place and now against resistance at 1.3231. At a minimum, bulls should manage, bears can begin to take a position though lower risk, but worse trade location, if they wait for a drop under 1.3028.
Japanese Yen via ETF FXY 2019-12-04
Yen has dropped steadily from the wave (e) of a triangle target of 90.41. So far, no complaints as it has been on plan. FXY has tested support at 86.71 with the Lomb pulled down where it is forecasting a cycle low. The pattern is not crystal clear but could be a small...British Pound futures and ETF FXB Update 2019-10-14
GBP has been on plan rising into wave (iv) targets this week. The futures have a little more room to develop if needed but the FXB chart is pretty close to the limit for a wave (iv). I have also added an alternate on the FXB chart where the drop from the wave [iv] high in 2018 is an ending diagonal where the recent low is wave (i) and is in either (ii) or ‘a of (ii)’ now.
British Pound Futures Update 2019-09-26
Sterling is dropping from a typical wave (iv) resistance but I doubt wave (iv) is complete as fours are often the most complex patterns. It is conceivable that it runs sideways for months. An alternate would be this is a fourth of lower degree, ‘iv’, and the next low ‘v of (iii)’.