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The Day Ahead 2017-01-24

The modest bearish bias paid off early but could not be sustained. Today thinking we turn that behavior on its head and expect higher but may be prone to pullback after an initial rise, perhaps late in the day.

The Day Ahead 2017-01-23

The equity indices closed at resist Friday on the close and futures are down slightly as I type. It is fair to have a tentative bearish bias early but if the market doesn’t cooperate don’t be stubborn, just let them test the next step up and try again from higher.

Copper futures 2017-01-21

Copper has yet to break the multi year down trend and thus not yet signaling a more bullish macro outlook.

US 30 year bond futures 2017-01-21

The bond decline is certainly stretched and the short trade is no doubt crowded, none the less, expecting a new bond low before a choppy sideways to slightly up formation for a few months.

The Day Ahead 2017-01-20

Equity futures have drifted higher overnight but going to have a provisionally bearish bias today. Like yesterday, the morning may push a little higher but will be watching to see if they sell off today.

The Day Ahead 2017-01-19

The S&P 500 (SPX) did bounce but wasn’t setting any speed records. Today, thinking is best to favor lower again. Note: Fixed the omission of the Gold chart.

The Day Ahead 2017-01-18

A mildly bearish bias has worked well for the last few trading days but am going to turn mildly bullish today. Not excited about it but bears are not doing much damage so the game of seeing who will be first to blink continues.

Natural Gas via UNG

I have gone back and forth trying to decide if a new low to March 2016 low is needed and think I have found a way to thread the needle. Net, no, a new low is not required.

The Day Ahead 2017-01-17

Thinking that the equity indices are in much the same condition that they were in last Friday, thus looking lower today.

The Day Ahead 2017-01-13

Yesterday started out on the outlined path but reversed hard midday. Now what? Keeping a mildly bearish stance since we have had four consecutive lower highs in the e-mini S&P 500. Monday is a holiday in the US thus suspect trading activity thins out quickly today as people start a three day weekend early.