We expect a reversal
Starting with the copper monthly chart for perspective. Primary thesis is that a large corrective formation completed at the 2016 low and that the climb up to the late 2017 high was the first impulse up from that low. That implies a corrective move lower and my assertion is that copper completed the first move of that correction in the summer of this year and due for a consolidative bounce before dropping in the last leg of the larger correction. I have penciled in the next corrective low to coincide with a cycle low middle of next year at a higher low to that of the 2016 low though a new price extreme in [b] would not break the pattern.
Here are some potential entry areas
But manage your short positions now
I relatively recently updated the copper futures charts as requested by a subscriber. At that time, my view was that copper was moving down in the last leg of wave (a) down from the high from late last year. I now think that (a) may be complete and ready to embark on a few months of choppy retrace up. Below you will find monthly and weekly copper futures charts and also monthly and weekly charts of a copper mining ETF (COPX).
By request, refreshing the copper analysis. Copper has been falling in line with the forecast from late last year. I think this is probably the first move down in wave [b] or [ii].
A sizable correction is due
I went ahead and did the copper analysis for the respective ETN. I've added some additional chart geometry and the Wave 59 9-5 study to the monthly chart but otherwise the story is the same as for copper futures.
Up until the middle of next last month, I had been treating the rise in copper as a deep wave four but I am promoting the alternate to primary, an initial impulse up from the early 2016 low. That does not mean that I changed my mind about this advance ending, but that I have thrown in the towel on expecting a new low on a turn lower.
I just can't get excited about this move up in copper as being the start of a major break higher. Instead, I still see this as the calm before the storm. Primary count is this being a wave (iv). I've marked the zone of overlap where wave (iv) would be invalidated. I can tolerate a brief spike into that zone but not a close.